The price is stuck at 0.624, just below the 'value vacuum' LVN area 2% below 0.638 POC; daily volume is decreasing with a rebound but contract holdings are up 5.34%, long/short ratio 2.22→2.41, and long covering is not finished. If it breaks through the 0.638–0.645 HVN with increased volume, it looks up to 0.70; conversely, losing 0.60 will pull back to 0.56 LVN. Profit/Loss ratio 2.3 : 1, position ≤1%, stop loss 0.595, take profit 0.70, and pay attention to the short-squeeze risk of sudden drops in 8h level holdings.
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## Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution
1. Value Anchoring Area (POC): 0.638, maximum trading volume in 2 weeks 69.3 M, upper edge 0.645 is the 'bull-bear watershed' that longs must capture.
2. High Volume Area (HVN): 0.628–0.645 forms a 'thick wall', if the price enters this area, it will encounter strong supply; below 0.56–0.55 is also HVN, which can serve as a pullback buffer.
3. Low Volume Gaps (LVN): 0.60–0.615, 0.57–0.58; the former is the 'vacuum' between the current price and POC, easy to cross quickly; the latter is the acceleration zone after breaking below 0.60.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 0.433–0.690; the current price is near the upper edge of 70%, slightly overbought but not extreme.
Momentum Verification
• Up/Down Volume above POC = 36% : 64%, sellers dominate;
• 0.60–0.615 LVN area Up Volume has rebounded to 58%, if increased volume >60% it is considered a signal for long positions to counterattack.
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## Market Cycle Judgment
The medium term is still in the 'bottom-lifting' oscillation and upward phase:
• 30-day contract net outflow -67 M corresponds to a price increase of +80%, driven by a technical rebound from short covering;
• The increase in holdings over 7–14 days has slowed down, and there is no excessive crowding of long positions. The short term is in 'consolidation after a rebound' rather than a main upward wave.
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## Trading Strategy
| Scheme | Entry | Stop Loss | Target | Profit/Loss Ratio | Trigger Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Long | 0.615 LVN pullback | 0.595 (below HVN) | 0.70 (next HVN) | 2.3 : 1 | 1h Up Volume >60% & bullish engulfing |
| Conservative Long | 0.605–0.610 | 0.595 | 0.638 POC | 2.8 : 1 | Volume decreasing and not breaking 0.60 |
| Breakout Short | Break below 0.595 | 0.605 | 0.56 LVN | 2.0 : 1 | 15 min increased volume bearish candle Down Volume >65% |
Position: single trade risk ≤ 1% of account, reverse calculate the number of contracts using 0.02 ATR (≈0.015).
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## Risk Warning
• If 0.595 is lost and contract holdings continue to decline, the strategy fails, and reverse to chase the short.
• Pay attention to the 8h level contract net outflow of -10.38 M's short-selling inertia, to prevent false breakdowns.
• Avoid low liquidity periods (UTC+8 05:00–07:00) to prevent slippage amplification.
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