AR plummets 9%, who is secretly bottom-fishing? — Arbitrum leader's night of shock, $7.42 becomes the battleground for bulls and bears!
Summary in one sentence
Short-term has touched the lower Bollinger band + oversold, the high volume zone of $7.3-$7.5 is strong resistance; if it breaks down below $7.0 on increasing volume, it will trigger wave C; aggressive traders can take a light long position at $7.0-$7.1, with a stop loss at $6.95, target $7.42, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.3:1, note the continuous decline in contract holdings and the ongoing outflow of leveraged funds.
Key interval structure and trading volume distribution
1. Value anchoring zone: POC = $7.42, with a trading volume of 3.08 million over the past two weeks, bulls and bears have exchanged hands fiercely here, the current price has broken down, and $7.42-$7.47 becomes the first significant resistance.
2. High trading volume zone: $7.28-$7.47 (HVN continuous 5 layers, single layer trading >2 million) forms the 'ceiling'; the potential retracement target below is $5.04 HVN.
3. Low trading volume gap: $7.0-$7.02 (LVN, only 210,000 traded) if it breaks down on increasing volume, it will quickly slide to $6.62-$6.69; above, $8.02-$8.05 is also LVN, breaking through can rush to $8.3.
4. 70% trading volume coverage zone: $4.99-$8.59, the current price of $8.22 is below the mid-axis of the range, short-term bias is bearish but not extremely oversold.
Momentum verification: At $7.42 POC, Up/Down = 42/58, sellers dominate; at $7.0 LVN, Up/Down = 66/34, buyers are attempting to support. Contract holdings have decreased by 6.45% in 24 hours, and the funding rate is only 0.01%, with bulls clearly withdrawing.
Market cycle
In the stage of 'daily rebound exhaustion within a weekly downtrend': After a 30-day increase of 70%, the net outflow of contracts is -3.9 million, entering a short-term retracement wave C.
Trading strategy
• Aggressive long position: $7.00-$7.05, stop loss at $6.95 (below HVN $6.62 plus 0.5×ATR ≈ 0.07), target $7.42 (POC), risk-reward ratio = (7.42-7.02)/(7.02-6.95) = 2.3:1.
• Conservative wait-and-see: wait to regain above $7.42 and see a 1-hour close with volume >1.5 times the average, then consider following the trend to $7.75.
• Reverse short: If the 1-hour volume breaks down below $6.95, can short to $6.62-$6.69 LVN, stop loss at $7.02, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2:1.
Risk warning
• Continuous outflow of contract holdings, if it decreases >3% in 24 hours, will accelerate the decline.
• Macro risk: If BTC falls below 65k, AR may be linked to breaking down below $6.62.
• Position ≤1%, avoid high leverage, and stay away from the UTC+0 8:00 funding rate settlement period.
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