Wave Theory Analysis and Interpretation:
From the chart, it can be seen that since the peak at 123218, BTC has exhibited a standard three-part adjustment structure. Combined with the recent continuous decline over nine days, it is currently more likely to enter the platform type or double three structure (W-X-Y) in the tail segment of the red fourth wave. The amplitude and rhythm of the first three segments generally align with the symmetrical characteristics of a typical platform adjustment, where the second segment's decline has retraced 0.7 times the increase of the first segment, and multiple peaks and pullbacks at 120973 have formed a short-term strong resistance.
On the support side, we still refer to the previous Fibonacci retracement range, i.e., the 0.382–0.5 area after the rise of the red third wave, specifically around 115657–113872. If it effectively breaks below 113872, we need to reassess the nature of the red fourth wave and the integrity of the main trend. If the current oscillation is a horizontal extension and gains support above 115657, there is hope to end the fourth wave early and initiate an upward advance in the red fifth wave, with the target of 132669 remaining unchanged.
In terms of time structure, if the red fourth wave is a standard platform or horizontal adjustment, its time is often similar to the red second wave. Currently, the distance from the adjustment starting point on July 14 is approaching the cycle's tail end, and July 27 should be a key time window. If it has not stabilized by then, the structure will deviate from the traditional wave time symmetry standards, and we need to be cautious about the potential invalidation of the red third wave's endpoint. In summary, we are currently in a critical low-level oscillation decision zone, and we need to continuously monitor the support strength in the 113872–115657 range and whether there are signs of a structural 'tail-end reversal'.
