Wave Theory Analysis and Interpretation:
From the chart, it can be seen that after the formation of the red third wave endpoint at 123218, BTC entered the fourth wave adjustment phase, which has been running continuously for 9 days. The internal structure initially presents a platform shape or double three structure (W-X-Y) possibility. The current price is hovering around a slight sideways consolidation, has not broken below the key support area of 115657–113872, and has not shown a significant breakout trend, indicating that the overall situation is still in the "extended oscillation not yet completed" fourth wave time expansion period.
Combining wave type analysis, the red fourth wave has exhibited typical horizontal adjustment characteristics: the first segment of the decline was rapid, the second segment rebounded with a 0.7 retracement, and the third segment showed a weak oscillation, consistent with the standard of platform wave highs and lows being relatively flat but extended in time. According to the time symmetry principle of waves, if the red fourth wave is a normal adjustment structure, its duration should not exceed that of the red second wave, that is, it should not exceed July 27. If this time point still does not find a clear turning low (such as a quick breach of support followed by a rapid pull-up), then it is necessary to be wary of the risk that the endpoint of the third wave at 123218 constitutes a "failed wave top."
From a price perspective, once it breaks below 113872, it will fall into the previous red third wave's 0.5–0.618 retracement range, i.e., probing into the 111800–110200 area; if support is effective and a bottoming pattern is formed, it may constitute the final endpoint of the fourth wave, providing a foundation for the launch of the red fifth wave. If it can subsequently break through the 120973–121500 resistance zone, accompanied by a substantial long bullish candlestick, it can be seen as the establishment of the red fifth wave starting point, with the target range still maintained at 132669–135000.
In summary, the next 5 days (until July 27) will be a key window to observe whether the fourth wave transitions into the fifth wave. If the adjustment structure's time and space are in place and accompanied by signs of a bottom divergence, then the red fifth wave has the conditions to exert strength. Otherwise, it is necessary to reassess whether the red third wave constitutes an "extended wave endpoint" or a potential large-scale top. For short-term operations, it is still recommended to focus on the confirmation of support in the 113872–115657 range and the coordination of trading volume.
