#ETHBreaks3700 [ETH Rocket Reaches $3720! FOMO or a Bull Trap? Understanding the Battle Between Bulls and Bears in One Article]
Quick Summary: ETH up 4.8% in 24h, spot price at $3721, touching the upper Bollinger Band, RSI extremely overbought at 86.8; selling orders 3x buying orders, contract long/short ratio down to 2.8, short-term pullback to $3600 likely. Aggressive traders can short in the $3686-3702 LVN range, stop-loss at $3729, target $3603 HVN, risk/reward 2.3; conservative traders wait for a pullback to $3603-3612 to long, stop-loss at $3570, target $3650, risk/reward 2.0. Risk: If breakout above $3750 with volume, short positions invalid, beware of weekend liquidity gaps.
Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchor: POC 2974 (1.92M ETH), 20% from current price, still attractive in the medium to long term.
• High Volume Area: 3603-3612 (900k ETH) is the first intraday support; 3702-3719 (120k ETH) is a thin area above, easy to pass through quickly.
• Low Volume Gap: 3686-3702 (140k ETH) LVN, price often “slips” through, ideal area for short-term shorting.
• 70% Volume Coverage: 2445-3653, current price is at the upper edge, short-term overbought.
• Momentum Verification: POC - Up Volume 58% above, buying still dominant; but 3700-3720 Up Volume only 39%, selling attack.
Market Cycle Judgment
Weekly line breaks through 3-month box, in the main bullish phase; daily line shows contract deleveraging (-7.1% long/short ratio) for the first time after 7 consecutive positive lines, short-term entering the "pull-up-distribution" transition zone, tending to high-level fluctuations.
Trading Strategy
1. Aggressive Short: Enter in batches in the 3686-3702 range, stop-loss 3729 (outside the LVN above), target 3603 (nearest HVN), risk/reward 2.3.
2. Conservative Long: Intervene when 3603-3612 pulls back and 1h Up Volume >55%, stop-loss 3570 (outside the HVN below), target 3650/3686, risk/reward 2.0.
3. Breakout Chase: Only when 1h closes steadily at 3750 and volume increases by 1.5 times, you can chase up to 3800-3850, stop-loss 3720.
Risk Warning
• Selling orders 48.8M vs buying orders 16.1M, short-term selling pressure is heavy.
• Weekend liquidity is low, LVN gaps are easy to magnify slippage.
• Key lost positions: Stop-loss immediately for long positions if it falls below 3603; abandon short positions immediately if it breaks through 3750.
• Single position size ≤1% of account equity, avoid high leverage.
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