The spot price of 0.01387 is still stuck near the lower edge of the 70% Value Area, with short positions dominating in the short term (3.5k sell orders on the order book, 24h net outflow of 89M), but the price has already re-tested LVN 0.01327 and the Up Volume accounts for 72%, indicating potential momentum for a 'false drop' followed by a quick pullback to POC 0.01424. Aggressive traders can take light short positions in the 0.0133-0.0134 range, with a stop loss at 0.0129 and a target of 0.0142; conservative traders should wait for a breakout above 0.0143 or a drop below 0.0129 to follow the trend. Risk: Contract OI down 32% in 4 days; if positions continue to decrease, volatility will increase, position ≤1%.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchor (POC): 0.01424, the largest trading pile in 2 weeks, with Up Volume 68% above, belonging to the bull control area.
2. High trading volume buffer (HVN): 0.01367-0.01390, 0.01413-0.01430, prices tend to oscillate here.
3. Low trading volume gap (LVN): 0.01327 (first hollow below), 0.01246 (deeper gap), breaking down will accelerate.
4. 70% Value Area: 0.01333-0.01677, current price is close to the lower edge, technically not overbought or oversold, but close to the edge.
5. Momentum verification: Up Volume 72% at LVN 0.01327 area, short-term buying active; Up Volume 68% at POC area, maintaining bullish inertia.
6. Bollinger Bands: 1h middle band at 0.01353, price is below it, RSI 38, weak oscillation; MA200 at 0.01300 is the medium-term support.
7. Order book anomaly: distant sell wall at 0.0185-0.20 totaling 210 million, difficult to break through in the short term, providing ceiling expectations.
Market cycle
In the medium to long term, it is still in a bear market rebound (12M contract net outflow -9.7B, price -81%), but there is a divergence in volume and price over 7-30 days (price up 77%, contract funds continue to flow out), indicating the end of a 'short covering rebound', ready to shift to sideways or a second bottom test at any time.
Trading strategy
• Aggressive short-term long: enter in batches at 0.0133-0.0134, stop loss at 0.0129 (recent HVN lower edge -0.5×ATR), target at 0.0142 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1 : 1.
• Conservative breakout long: enter after a 15m closing volume breakout above 0.0143 and a retest without breaking, stop loss at 0.0139, target at 0.0151 (next HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4 : 1.
• Alternative short: if it breaks below 0.0129 and Down Volume > 60%, chase short to 0.0125/0.0120, stop loss at 0.0133.
Risk Warning
1. OI has been significantly reduced for 4 consecutive days, lacking new long support, high probability of false breakout.
2. The macro funding rate is only 0.005%, the short position cost is low, making it easy to launch a raid and smash the price.
3. Spot 24h net outflow is 6.6M; if it continues to expand, it will suppress the rebound.
4. Single trade risk ≤1%, avoid high leverage; if the price returns below 0.0130 within 2 hours, stop loss immediately.
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