Short-term funds have continued to net outflows + the long-short ratio has quickly declined, with prices nearing the dual resistance of the upper Bollinger band and POC; aggressive traders can buy on a pullback to the 0.0144-0.0145 HVN, stop loss at 0.0141, target 0.0158; if it breaks down with volume below 0.0141, then reverse to short, stop loss at 0.0144, target 0.0132. Note that the increase in contract positions has slowed down over 24 hours and a trend reversal may occur at any time.
[Key intervals and volume distribution]
1. Value anchoring area: POC 0.01507 (3.02 billion trading volume, long and short are almost balanced).
2. High trading volume buffer zone:
• 0.01443-0.01447 HVN (2.37 billion, bulls slightly dominant) - support on pullback.
• 0.01520-0.01523 HVN (2.92 billion, bulls active) - next resistance after breaking above.
3. Low volume gap:
• 0.01577-0.01609 LVN (traded at 2.5 billion) - if it breaks out with volume, it can quickly rush to 0.0165.
• 0.01271-0.01281 LVN (traded at 2.8 billion) - if it breaks below 0.0141, it will accelerate the decline.
4. 70% trading volume coverage area: 0.01144-0.01552, current price is at the upper edge, short-term overbought.
5. Momentum verification: Up/Down near POC ≈ 50:50, 0.0144 HVN Up 55%, bulls still dominate; Up 100% above LVN, but with low volume, easy to be counterattacked by bears.
[Market Cycle]
The weekly level is still in a large range of oscillation, and after three consecutive weeks of increased volume on the daily chart, it has entered a 'rally-distribution' phase in the short term. Combined with the slowing growth of contract positions, it is judged to be at the 'initial stage of high-level oscillation distribution'.
[Trading Strategy]
• Bullish strategy (buy on pullback within the range):
Entry: 0.01445-0.01450 (pullback to HVN + middle Bollinger band)
Stop loss: 0.01410 (lower HVN outer edge -0.5×ATR ≈ 0.0003)
Target: 0.01580 (upper band + 2×ATR)
Profit and loss ratio: R = (0.01580 - 0.01445) / (0.01445 - 0.01410) ≈ 3.9
• Bearish strategy (reverse on break):
Entry: Break below 0.01410 and 15 min volume increases (Down Vol > 60%)
Stop loss: 0.01440 (backtest HVN)
Target: 0.01320 (next HVN)
Profit and loss ratio: R = (0.01410 - 0.01320) / (0.01440 - 0.01410) ≈ 3.0
[Risk Warning]
1. The main contract has a net outflow of 413 million over 24 hours; if it continues to expand, the bullish strategy will be invalidated.
2. The funding rate is only 0.01%, and the cost for bulls is low, so a collective profit-taking may occur at any time.
3. Avoid trading within 30 minutes before and after the US stock market opens and ETH ETF news to prevent liquidity gaps.
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