HBAR intraday volume +4.5%, price has risen above MA200 by 12%, short-term in the upper 93% of the Bollinger Bands; VPVR shows a large volume turnover around the value anchoring area at 0.242, with a sell wall above at 0.29-0.30 and HVN buffer below at 0.268-0.270. Short-term pullback in the range of 0.268-0.270 can be a low buy, stop loss at 0.265, target 0.29-0.30, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.7; if volume breaks below 0.265, then reverse to short, stop loss at 0.271, target 0.242, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1. Be cautious as contract positions have decreased for 8 hours, with a funding rate of only 0.01%, beware of long squeeze.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchoring area (POC): 0.241-0.243, trading volume 1.17 billion, Up/Down ≈ 57/43, neutral to slightly bullish.
2. High Volume Node (HVN):
• 0.268-0.270: 8 million USDT buyer liquidity, short-term support for a pullback.
• 0.290-0.300: 15.55 million USDT sell wall, strong short-term resistance.
3. Low Volume Gaps (LVN): 0.181-0.187, 0.163-0.167, if volume breaks through 0.300, it will cross quickly.
4. 70% volume coverage area: 0.199-0.284, current price is close to the upper band, short-term overbought.
Momentum verification
• 0.268-0.270 HVN: Up Volume 61%, buyers dominate, pullback confirms effectiveness.
• 0.290-0.300: Up Volume 47%, sellers dominate, easy to fall back after a spike.
• Contract positions continue to flow out -5.1%~-0.6% for 8h-24h, clear reduction in long positions, volume-price divergence.
Auxiliary judgment
• Bollinger Bands: Price close to 1h upper band 0.281, RSI 57, not yet extreme.
• MA200: 0.249, divergence +12%, mid-term trend still upward but needs short-term correction.
• Order book: 0.30 sell wall 51.86 million, 0.19 buy wall 27.29 million, selling pressure > buying pressure by 1.17 times.
Market cycle
Mid-term in the 'rising-consolidation' stage: 30-day increase +103%, but 14-day positions decreased by 393M, capital cashing out at high levels, short-term enters a period of oscillation and turnover.
Trading strategy
• Low buy (conservative): Buy in the range of 0.268-0.270, stop loss at 0.265 (below HVN), target 0.290-0.300, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.7.
• High short (aggressive): Short when first touching 0.290-0.292, stop loss at 0.296, target 0.275-0.270, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.3.
• Reverse short (breakdown): Increase volume to break below 0.265, stop loss at 0.271, target 0.242 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.
Risk warning
• Major reduction in positions + dense sell walls, if 0.265 is lost, it will trigger long stop losses.
• Extremely low funding rate, long leverage can easily trigger a chain explosion.
• Avoid high volatility periods, single trade risk ≤ 1%, move stop loss up with HVN.
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