This week’s market review and outlook
Ether rebounds strongly, altcoins finally show signs of life
After Bitcoin broke through the $120,000 mark at the beginning of the week, it began to consolidate, and then Ethereum took the spotlight, finally standing above $3,000 after a year of consolidation, with the highest price surpassing $3,600. The cryptocurrency market, like the traditional one, saw Ethereum leading other altcoins to surge, with XRP also breaking new highs, reaching a maximum of $3.64.
The recent rise in cryptocurrency prices is mainly attributed to the U.S. House of Representatives finally passing three important cryptocurrency-related bills, which affirm the development of stablecoins while also clarifying regulations for other cryptocurrency issuances, allowing mainstream issuance chains like Ethereum to gain popularity, becoming the biggest driver for Ether's surge. Currently, Bitcoin has been hovering around the $118,000 level; after breaking new highs, it has established a short-term peak and is now in a state of waiting for news to determine its direction.
On the eve of the Fed's interest rate meeting, U.S. economic data will be the focus on Thursday
With two weeks until the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market is already speculating on the possibility of a rate cut in July. Although the general expectation is that July rates will remain unchanged, many dramatic events in the past two weeks, such as Powell's resignation and some dovish comments from Fed governors, seem to aim at coordinating with Trump to restart the rate-cutting cycle earlier. However, even if rates remain unchanged in July and strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, it would help the market maintain optimism in August and September.
There are no significant known events to sway the market in early this week. Key economic data to be released in the U.S. will be focused on Thursday, including unemployment figures, manufacturing, and services PMIs. As for tariff issues, no market-impacting news is expected this week, and countries that have not confirmed tariffs are also anticipated to have results only next week, so the market momentum from last week is expected to carry into this week, maintaining an optimistic trend.
Three major cryptocurrency bills passed in the U.S.: Analyzing their profound impacts on the industry and investors
The U.S. House of Representatives passed three key cryptocurrency bills last week (July 17, 2025), marking a watershed moment for the entire industry, including the (GENIUS Act), (CLARITY Act), and (Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act). These bills aim to provide a clearer regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry, benefiting investors by reducing uncertainty and promoting growth. Below, we will detail how these bills help the cryptocurrency industry and the potential benefits for investors, while also pointing out some potential issues.
Background and context
The cryptocurrency industry has long faced regulatory uncertainty regarding whether the SEC or the CFTC should be responsible for regulating different cryptocurrencies, which has hindered institutional investment and mainstream adoption. To address this, the industry has invested heavily in lobbying, spending over $100 million in the last congressional election to support pro-cryptocurrency politicians.
U.S. President Trump has pledged to make America the 'global cryptocurrency capital' and has played a key role with financial interests in World Liberty Financial (issuer of stablecoin USD1). These efforts contributed to the 'Cryptocurrency Week' on Capitol Hill, where the House passed these three bills, marking a turning point for the industry.
Detailed analysis of each bill
1. (GENIUS Act) (Regulating stablecoin issuance)
(GENIUS Act) is officially named the (U.S. Stablecoin Innovation Guidelines Act), establishing the first federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies (collectively referred to as 'stablecoins') that are pegged to stable assets like the dollar.
Key provisions include:
Requiring issuers to hold an equivalent amount of dollar reserves for each stablecoin issued, ensuring stability.
Requiring disclosure of holding information to enhance transparency.
Introducing anti-money laundering (AML) rules to combat illegal activities.
Benefits for the cryptocurrency industry:
Clear regulations and consumer trust: By providing clear rules, the bill reduces uncertainty, making stablecoins more attractive to consumers and investors. This is crucial for an industry that has often faced criticism for its lack of regulation.
Legitimacy and mainstream integration: Formal regulation enhances the legitimacy of stablecoins, encouraging adoption by traditional financial institutions. For example, banks like JPMorgan, Amazon, and Walmart are considering launching their own stablecoins, which could reduce credit card fees for retailers.
Market growth: Analysts predict that by the end of this decade, the stablecoin market could grow to $3.7 trillion, driven by its applications in instant, low-cost global transactions. This could disrupt traditional banking systems, such as wire transfers and credit card networks.
Consumer protection: The bill sets protective measures such as reserve requirements, enhancing trust and reducing the risk of stablecoin collapses, which have historically harmed the industry’s reputation.
Benefits for investors:
Enhanced stability: Stablecoins offer a lower volatility option in the cryptocurrency market, making them appealing to investors seeking to reduce risk. The regulatory framework provided by the (Genius Act) may boost investor confidence in stablecoin issuers, potentially facilitating higher adoption rates and value.
New investment opportunities: As stablecoins integrate into traditional finance, investors may explore stablecoin-related projects, such as cross-border payments or decentralized finance (DeFi) application investment opportunities.
Diversifying investments: Investors may allocate a portion of their portfolio to stablecoins as a hedge asset during market downturns, balancing the volatility of other cryptocurrencies.
Potential risks for investors:
Insufficient consumer protection: Critics, including (Consumer Reports), argue that the (Genius Act) has insufficient requirements for stablecoin issuers, lacking federal protections and traditional banking safeguards like deposit insurance. If issuers face bankruptcy, investors may face greater risks.
Financial stability risks: The bill allows stablecoin issuers to bypass conventional banking protections, potentially leading to risks similar to the financial crises of 1929 or 2008. If stablecoins integrate with mainstream banks and a crisis occurs, investors could be affected by bankruptcies or federal bailouts.
Surge of stablecoins: The bill may lead to the emergence of various private stablecoins, forcing consumers to use different currencies in different stores, which may require cryptocurrency wallets, increasing hackers' risks for investors.
2. (CLARITY Act) (Defining the structure of the crypto market)
(CLARITY Act), also known as (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act), aims to establish a broader regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market.
Its provisions:
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are classified as commodities and regulated by the CFTC, while others may be classified as securities and regulated by the SEC.
Weakening the SEC's enforcement powers, transferring more regulatory authority to the CFTC, which is viewed as more industry-friendly.
Benefits for the cryptocurrency industry:
Clear regulations: The bill addresses long-standing regulatory jurisdiction confusion, reducing the risk of regulatory arbitrage or sudden crackdowns. This is crucial for attracting institutional investors who require a stable legal environment.
Protection from strict enforcement: By limiting the SEC's powers, the bill protects the industry from the impacts of stringent regulation and enforcement actions, which have been particularly concerning in the past. For instance, the bill addresses industry complaints about unclear laws and SEC actions.
Attracting investments: A clear regulatory framework could attract more retail and institutional investments, increasing market liquidity and stability, potentially leading to higher valuations and broader market participation.
Innovation and growth: A stable legal foundation allows crypto companies to innovate without fear of regulatory backlash, fostering the development of new products and services. This could position the U.S. as a leader in global crypto innovation.
Bipartisan support: The bill passed with broad bipartisan support of 294 to 134, showing strong political backing and reducing the likelihood of future reversals.
Benefits for investors:
Reduced regulatory uncertainty: The bill clearly distinguishes between commodities and securities, making it easier for investors to understand the legal risks of different cryptocurrencies, lowering investment risks and attracting more capital.
Improved market stability: Clearer regulations may make the crypto market more stable, making it more appealing to institutional investors who have been cautious due to regulatory ambiguity, potentially bringing higher liquidity and valuations.
Growth of mature cryptocurrencies: The bill enhances investor confidence in mature cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin by clarifying their regulatory status as commodities, which may attract more capital inflows and boost their value.
New investment avenues: Clear regulations could facilitate the development of new financial products, such as cryptocurrency-based investment funds or tokenized assets, providing investors with more opportunities.
Potential risks for investors:
Regulatory loopholes: The bill may exempt certain entities (such as Trump-related World Liberty Financial and the meme coin 'TRUMP') from stricter SEC regulations, allowing them to operate under more lenient commodity regulations. This could lead to increased speculation, and investors may incur losses in these assets, such as most investors in TRUMP coins have already lost money, despite the Trump organization earning hundreds of millions from sales.
Market volatility: Despite regulatory progress, the crypto market remains volatile, and investors should be prepared to cope with price fluctuations, especially in speculative assets.
3. (Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act) (Prohibiting CBDC issuance)
The third bill (Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act) passed with a vote of 219 to 210, prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which is government-backed digital currency. This bill reflects concerns within the cryptocurrency community about competition from government and private cryptocurrencies.
Benefits for the cryptocurrency industry:
Preserving the private cryptocurrency space: By prohibiting CBDCs, the bill prevents government-issued digital currencies from directly competing with decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Some industry advocates argue that CBDCs could undermine the value proposition of private cryptocurrencies, as they offer a centralized government-backed alternative.
Reducing competition: Without CBDCs, private cryptocurrencies can maintain their unique selling points, such as decentralization and resistance to government control, potentially promoting their adoption and value growth.
Aligning with industry preferences: The ban aligns with the views of many cryptocurrency enthusiasts who prefer decentralized systems over government-controlled digital currencies, strengthening the industry's position.
Benefits for investors:
Protecting privacy and decentralization: The CBDC ban protects the appeal of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as private, decentralized alternatives, potentially attracting more investors concerned about financial surveillance, driving up Bitcoin's value.
Maintaining Bitcoin's global appeal: The bill preserves Bitcoin's global, decentralized nature, which is a key selling point for many investors, potentially enhancing its long-term value proposition.
Potential risks for investors:
Digital payment innovation is restricted: Some experts believe that CBDCs can complement private cryptocurrencies by providing regulated digital payment options. The ban may limit innovation in digital payments, potentially impacting the global competitiveness of private cryptocurrencies compared to countries adopting CBDCs.
Broader implications and industry context
The passage of these bills is the result of extensive lobbying efforts in the industry, spending over $100 million in last year’s congressional elections, and preparing even larger funds for next year's midterm elections. President Trump’s intervention, including facilitating agreements among lawmakers, played a key role, especially given his financial interests in World Liberty Financial, which plans to launch an institutional-grade stablecoin USD1. This political support has boosted industry confidence and aligns with Trump's campaign promise to make the U.S. the 'global cryptocurrency capital'.
These bills are seen as a generational change comparable to the securities laws of the 1930s, potentially making the U.S. the center for digital assets. They address the industry's long-standing complaints about unclear regulations and enforcement actions, creating a more stable and predictable environment. However, the (CLARITY Act) and CBDC prohibition bill still require Senate approval, which may lead to further changes or delays.
Investor strategies and considerations
Given these benefits and risks, investors can leverage these bills in the following ways:
Diversifying investments in stablecoins: With the framework provided by the (GENIUS Act), stablecoins could become a more reliable investment choice, offering stability in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
Investing in mature cryptocurrencies: Clear regulations may make investing in mature cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum more attractive, as legal risks are reduced, potentially leading to increased demand and value.
Exploring new opportunities: These bills may foster the creation of new financial products or services in the crypto space, providing investors with new investment avenues, such as tokenized assets or DeFi platforms.
Monitoring market developments: Investors should closely monitor the implementation and adjustments of these regulations, as the full impact may not be immediately apparent, and the Senate may bring changes.
However, investors should also exercise caution:
Avoid overheated assets: Be cautious about investing in overhyped assets that lack fundamental value, especially assets related to political figures or speculative trends, such as the TRUMP meme coin, most investors of which have incurred losses, despite the Trump organization earning hundreds of millions from sales.
Regulatory changes: While the current bills provide clarity, future regulatory changes may still affect the crypto market, making it crucial to stay updated.
Market volatility: Despite regulatory progress, the crypto market remains volatile, and investors should be prepared to cope with price fluctuations and consider risk management strategies, such as diversification and setting stop-loss orders.
Conclusion: The legitimacy of cryptocurrencies has been confirmed
The three cryptocurrency bills passed last week are expected to benefit the cryptocurrency industry by providing regulatory clarity, enhancing legitimacy, and promoting growth. For investors, these bills create opportunities by reducing uncertainty, enhancing market stability, and providing new investment channels (especially in stablecoins and mature cryptocurrencies). However, there are also risks, such as insufficient consumer protection, financial stability issues, and conflicts of interest related to Trump-associated entities. By understanding the opportunities and challenges provided by these bills, investors can make more informed decisions in the evolving cryptocurrency environment.
Last week’s review >>> 【MICA RESEARCH】 "Has the positioning of 'hedge assets' been shattered? Why are cryptocurrencies moving in tandem with U.S. stocks and no longer acting independently?"
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"【MICA RESEARCH】The passage of three major cryptocurrency bills in the U.S.: Analyzing their profound impacts on the industry and investors" was first published in (Blockke).
