The American market in mid-July seems to balance on a thin edge between stability and anxiety. The average mortgage rate for 30 years has risen again — 6.75% compared to 6.72% a week earlier, bouncing from a recent low since April. For the housing market, this is a signal: affordability remains under pressure, although stability in rates and an increase in supply give a chance to those willing to take risks. Even a new bill promising support for households and small businesses cannot instantly neutralize the effect of expensive money. It is no coincidence that 38% of builders report price reductions to revive demand — a record since 2022.
At the same time, the stock market shows cautious optimism. Retail sales increased by 0.6% against forecasts of 0.1%, reminding investors that the American consumer still finds ways to spend. PepsiCo jumps to a 12-week high, while United Airlines meets expectations with its forecast dynamics, albeit with some caveats. On the other hand, Deere & Company and Chubb have updated their local lows. The balance between sectors suggests that investors are choosing defensive niches and companies with predictable margins.
The bond market reacts nervously to this cocktail of data. The yield on 10-year treasuries fell to 4.46% after testing 4.5%, but this is not a reason for relaxation. Strong macro statistics and political signals hinder the formation of a clear rate forecast. Speculations about a possible resignation of Jerome Powell added drama, although Trump rushed to calm the market by stating that 'this is highly unlikely.' Nevertheless, investors do not forget: the president insists on a softer monetary policy, which in the long run increases the risks of inflation and instability at the long end of the yield curve.
The tariff factor remains in play. Starting August 1, there are new packages of restrictions on the horizon for Japan, Korea, and the EU, and now Trump hints at a unified tariff for one and a half hundred countries. This is not just a signal about negotiations — it's a reshaping of the global trade architecture. In such a reality, the dollar gains momentum: the DXY index rose above 98.7, reflecting confidence in the American economy, but also nervousness about future steps from the Fed.
In the shadow of these narratives, the gas market continues to build its trends: inventories in the U.S. increased by 46 billion cubic feet, which is 6.2% above the five-year average. This adds pressure on prices and maintains the contour of cheap energy for industry — another argument in favor of continuing the American industrial cycle, despite tariff wars.
The overall picture is contradictory: the housing market is seeking a foothold, consumers show resilience, businesses are stockpiling, and the bond market catches every word from Washington. For investors, this is a time for cautious strategies and targeted bets. For the crypto market — a period of heightened interest: the greater the uncertainty in monetary policy and the trading system, the higher the attractiveness of decentralized assets. Bitcoin is once again becoming not just a tool for speculation but a hedge against chaos in the global financial architecture.
