Wall Street is again talking about trade wars. President Trump sent a 'letter of happiness' to Canada with a 35% tariff and is already preparing messages to the EU. The markets did not remain indifferent: the Dow Jones fell by 0.64%, the S&P 500 by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq by 0.2%. Just yesterday, investors were celebrating new historical highs, and today - they are packing their bags for the turbulence zone.

Why are markets falling?
The short answer is uncertainty. Trump's approach to trade is a mix of sharp statements, 'scare tactics', and real actions. Now the threat of tariffs extending to Europe is up to 20%. Companies sensitive to global trade like Visa, Salesforce, and Nike are in the red, while giants like Amazon and Nvidia, as well as the oil industry, which is not afraid of tariffs (on the contrary - sometimes even benefits from them), are in the black.

Are tariffs bad?
Depends on who you ask. For the US budget - so far, good. In June, customs duties reached a record $27.2 billion, helping to secure a budget surplus of $27 billion. The annual figure has already exceeded $113 billion, and the Treasury Department is counting on $300 billion by the end of 2025. But if we exclude the 'magical' calendar shifts, the real picture shows a deficit of $70 billion. In other words, Trump is playing fiscal arithmetic: on one hand - income from tariffs, on the other - rising expenses for debt servicing and defense.

What’s next?
Investors won't be bored. Next week marks the start of earnings season - JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Netflix will take the stage. At the same time - data on inflation in the US and retail sales. The economy is in focus, but the shadow of trade threats will loom over the markets.

Yes - 'Trump's letters' could become a new market section. Each such statement will be like a match to a powder keg. For the crypto market, this is a double signal: on one hand, investors are fleeing from risk, on the other - demand for decentralized assets is increasing. Don't be surprised if BTC finds itself in profit again against the backdrop of global protectionism.

A brief summary for Binance investors:

  • Stock markets are entering a correction amid Trump's trade rhetoric.

  • The US budget is temporarily benefiting from the rise in tariffs, but sustainability is in question.

  • The upcoming week will bring earnings reports and inflation data - it will be hot.

  • The crypto market may gain short-term momentum as a 'refuge from protectionism'.