Васисуалий Лоханкин

#LearnAndDiscuss

If monk Occam had lived to the 21st century and tried to comprehend the structure of the world economy, he would probably not only have lost his speech — he would have burned his notes and gone into digital hermitage. His famous 'razor', according to which 'entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity', would have dulled on the very first attempt to 'uncover' the structure of the global currency system. We live in a world where entities multiply — currencies, derivatives, schemes, superstructures, central banks, cryptocurrencies, ETFs. Complexity has become the new norm. But the more complex the structure, the higher the chance of its collapse.

#FOMCMeeting
This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve made what seemed like a boring decision — to keep the interest rate unchanged. The markets shrugged and prepared for a lull. But, as is often the case, the most interesting part was not in the official press release, but in the minutes. Two senior members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, publicly expressed dissent, voting for a rate cut.

Strong data on U.S. economic growth, another spike in trade tensions, and a cautious position from the Federal Reserve have reshuffled the landscape in global markets. The dollar index (DXY) surged to 99.3 — the highest since early June — ahead of the Fed meeting. Support for the 'buck' came not only from the numbers but also from signals: U.S. GDP grew an impressive 3% year-on-year in the second quarter, surpassing forecasts and contrasting sharply with the downturn in the first quarter.

Jerome Powell's speech on July 22 at the Fed conference on the integrated review of the capital framework for large banks turned out to be indicative precisely because of what was not included. The Fed chair carefully navigated technical topics — the relationship of risk-based requirements, leverage ratios, buffers for globally systemically important banks, and stress tests — and emphasized two things: the system must work as a cohesive mechanism, and the regulator is open to feedback. No mention of rates, inflation, economic forecasts, or political pressure. In the week of 'silence' before the FOMC meeting (July 29–30), this is not just a polite protocol; it is a conscious strategy to minimize communication risk amid heightened political turbulence.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller on July 17 in New York did what many monetary authorities find psychologically harder than raising rates: he clearly and without diplomacy called for a reduction in the target range for federal funds at the upcoming FOMC meeting (July 29-30) by 25 basis points. His position is based on three pillars — tariffs create only a one-time price shock, the economy is noticeably slowing down, and the labor market is beginning to show alarming signals. Waiting for the situation to worsen, in his opinion, is unreasonable.

When the market is tiptoeing at historical highs, any loud word from Washington sounds like a clap in a theatrical pause. This week, the clap was another tariff ultimatum from President Trump: in the deal with the European Union — 'no less than 15-20%', preferably by August 1. Think about it: while politicians haggle over numbers, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to balance at record levels, as if marking this down in the calendar as another 'negotiation noise'. Investors seem to decide: while there's no signature — there's no panic. But the closer the deadline approaches, the more expensive this faith in a happy ending will become.

The American market in mid-July seems to balance on a thin edge between stability and anxiety. The average mortgage rate for 30 years has risen again — 6.75% compared to 6.72% a week earlier, bouncing from a recent low since April. For the housing market, this is a signal: affordability remains under pressure, although stability in rates and an increase in supply give a chance to those willing to take risks. Even a new bill promising support for households and small businesses cannot instantly neutralize the effect of expensive money. It is no coincidence that 38% of builders report price reductions to revive demand — a record since 2022.

The American stock market has stalled in a sideways trend: investors are navigating between new tariff threats from President Trump, easing inflationary pressures, and mixed corporate reports. Against this backdrop, indexes are behaving differently — Nasdaq is slightly losing, Dow is gaining, and S&P 500 is balancing.

Wall Street is again talking about trade wars. President Trump sent a 'letter of happiness' to Canada with a 35% tariff and is already preparing messages to the EU. The markets did not remain indifferent: the Dow Jones fell by 0.64%, the S&P 500 by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq by 0.2%. Just yesterday, investors were celebrating new historical highs, and today - they are packing their bags for the turbulence zone.

#BinanceTurns8
In a world where startups burn out faster than meteors, eight years is almost an eternity. And in the crypto industry, where each year can be multiplied by seven like in dogs, an eight-year anniversary is the age of a patriarch. In July 2025, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, celebrates its eighth birthday. And this is a great reason not just to cut the cake but to dissect the phenomenon that has forever changed the financial landscape.

#TrumpTariffs
The Trump administration is launching a new phase of tariff policy in which economic calculation is closely intertwined with geopolitical pressure. The threat of an additional 10% tariff for countries cooperating with BRICS, ultimatums to allies, changing terms 'on the fly,' and the desire to conclude dozens of deals in a matter of days—all this transforms the U.S. foreign economic course into a dynamic but extremely contradictory construct. At the core of the strategy is the idea that tariffs can simultaneously stimulate domestic industry, replenish the budget, reduce the trade deficit, and serve as a lever of diplomatic pressure. However, in practice, these goals often conflict with one another, and the longer the tariff campaign lasts, the more apparent its internal contradictions become.

#MuskAmericaParty
Elon Musk is changing the rules again — this time in politics. The creation of the 'America Party' looks like a loud statement, but it resembles a plot that America has seen many times before: a charismatic leader, criticism of the system, a promise of a new course — and the bureaucratic asphalt on which dozens before him have stalled. What will be the outcome of Musk's latest 'adventure in America'? Will it be a technological revolution or political déjà vu?

President Trump signed a law unofficially dubbed the 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' which increases the US federal debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion. Although cryptocurrencies are not mentioned once in the text of the law, its macroeconomic consequences — rising inflation, a weakening dollar, and questions about the fiscal sustainability of the US — directly affect the world of digital assets. The aim of this article is to analyze how this seemingly distant step from the crypto industry may become one of the key growth drivers for the market in the coming years.

China is simultaneously showing aggression, anxiety, and caution. It is retaliating against the EU for attempts to limit exports, paying citizens for having children, and watching the market like a thermometer of its own stability.

In recent days, three news items from China have sparked a wave of discussion: retaliatory tariffs on French brandy, readiness for direct payments for newborns, and nervousness in the stock market. At first glance — three different events, but in the context of the current economic and geopolitical situation, they are interconnected.

#USCorePCEMay #Fed
The first week of July promises to be hot, and it's not just about the weather. Despite the fact that the USA will celebrate Independence Day, the financial markets will not get a break from the flow of crucial data. The main plot of this summer: are we in for a "soft landing" of the global economy or preparing for a hard landing?

Yesterday, we tried to understand how the stock market manages to grow and set new records while macroeconomic data signals slowing and even contracting economy. Today, we will analyze fresh reports and recent statements to understand how the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the changing economic picture continue to shape this seemingly illogical scenario.

#Fed #USEconomics
The world of finance in mid-2025 presents investors with a real puzzle. While macroeconomic reports signal a contraction of the U.S. economy — the first in three years — key stock indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 show strong growth and are approaching historical highs. This seemingly illogical dynamic confuses many, but with a deeper analysis, a clear picture emerges where economic reality and market psychology move in opposite directions.

#ChinaEconomy
After three days of confident growth, Chinese stock markets showed mixed dynamics on Thursday, reflecting the overall atmosphere of caution that hung over investors. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly decreased by 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.48%. This halt in the rally is not a sign of panic but rather a moment of sober assessment, as market participants attempt to weigh the verbal assurances of the authorities against the backdrop of a lack of concrete economic measures.

#Fed #USeconomy
On Tuesday, financial markets around the world turned green. US stock indices rushed upwards, led by technology giants, while the US dollar tested three-year lows, and government bond yields fell. What caused this fit of euphoria? The answer lies in two key stories of the day: the fragile de-escalation in the Middle East and the growing hopes that the US Federal Reserve System is about to step on the pedal of monetary policy easing.

#USNationalDebt
U.S. national debt has reached a new historic high of $37 trillion. Meanwhile, every fourth dollar of tax revenues now goes to servicing interest on this debt. This is not just a number—it is a worrying indicator that raises questions about the country’s fiscal sustainability, the future of the dollar, and consequently, the prospects for alternative assets such as bitcoin and stablecoins.