Васисуалий Лоханкин

#LearnAndDiscuss

If monk Occam had lived to the 21st century and tried to comprehend the structure of the world economy, he would probably not only have lost his speech — he would have burned his notes and gone into digital hermitage. His famous 'razor', according to which 'entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity', would have dulled on the very first attempt to 'uncover' the structure of the global currency system. We live in a world where entities multiply — currencies, derivatives, schemes, superstructures, central banks, cryptocurrencies, ETFs. Complexity has become the new norm. But the more complex the structure, the higher the chance of its collapse.

#TariffsPause
Друзья, свежие данные по ВВП США за первый квартал 2025 года подкинули аналитикам и инвесторам повод для серьезных раздумий. Ожидали скромного роста, а получили... сокращение! По предварительной оценке, американская экономика ужалась на 0,3% в годовом выражении. Это первое падение с начала 2022 года и настоящий разворот после бодрого роста в конце 2024-го. Что произошло и, главное, куда теперь двинется главный экономический локомотив мира?
Главный виновник неожиданного спада – рез

#TariffsPause
Today is a big day for the American economy and markets. All investors' attention is focused on the release of two super important reports from the U.S. that may significantly affect sentiment and asset prices. Against this backdrop is the ongoing story of tariffs and trade wars, adding uncertainty.

#USChinaTensions #ChainaPMI #ChainaEconomy #ChainaStocks
April economic data from China turned out to be... well, to put it bluntly, disappointing. And these are not just numbers – they are a wake-up call that once again raises concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy and its impact on global markets. Especially against the backdrop of ongoing trade tensions with the United States.

#TariffsPause
Weak data and Trump's tariffs increase hopes for a rate cut. An analysis of key signals.

📉 Markets tremble, Fed under pressure: bad news — good news?
On Tuesday, nerves stirred in the markets. Weak macro data, alarming signals from companies, and Trump's tariffs looming over global trade — all this is turning into fuel for new bets: markets are seriously counting on a rapid rate cut from the Fed.

Amid ongoing trade disagreements between Washington and Beijing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined the American administration's position on the matter. According to recent statements from Bessent, the U.S. government maintains contact with China at all levels; however, to de-escalate the trade dispute caused by a significant imbalance, it is Beijing that must take the first steps.

#TariffsPause
President Donald Trump's trade policy attracts significant attention, raising questions about its direction and consequences. On one hand, there are statements about the intention to conclude several new trade agreements in the coming weeks, while on the other, it is acknowledged that conducting all necessary meetings may be "physically impossible." This uncertainty raises concerns among domestic entrepreneurs and consumers, as well as among foreign partners.

#USChinaTensions
The current trade conflict between the U.S. and China increasingly resembles a sort of audit of mutual economic ties. In the process of confrontation, both sides are actively identifying critically important commodity flows, seeking pressure points on the opponent, and concurrently determining areas where concessions are possible or even necessary. The results of this 'audit' only confirm the well-known fact: the economies of the two giants are deeply interdependent, and breaking these ties is painful for both sides. It is likely that these identified critical dependencies will serve as the foundation for future steps – whether targeted concessions or the beginning of substantive negotiations.

#USChinaTensions
Amid growing economic pressure and trade tensions with the USA, the Chinese authorities launched a large-scale issue of special sovereign bonds that are not accounted for in the official fiscal deficit target of 4% of GDP, allowing for expanded borrowing without changing regulations. Today, the first tranche was issued in the amount of 286 billion CNY (≈ $39.2 billion at the exchange rate of 7.2917 CNY/$ on April 24, 2025):

#USChinaTensions Against the backdrop of growing economic pressure caused by weak domestic demand, a debt crisis in the real estate sector, and the threat of new U.S. tariffs, China is attempting to expand access to its domestic market. One step in this direction has been the update of the 'negative list' (a model for managing foreign investments established in China, the list describes sectors where foreign investments are restricted or prohibited). The result has been a narrowing of the number of industries with restrictions for foreign investors from 117 to 106, in order to facilitate market access. Partial liberalization affects sectors such as television production, telecommunications services, online pharmaceutical information, the use of radioactive materials in healthcare, and the import of forest seeds. Local authorities have been advised to expand access in transportation, logistics, freight forwarding, and vehicle rental services. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has declared that these changes are aimed at 'lowering the entry threshold and stimulating market viability.'

#USStockDrop
Markets have once again shown how sharply they react to any news about U.S.-China trade relations. Recent statements by President Trump regarding tariffs stirred investors, initially providing hope for a thaw, and then quickly returning to reality. It all started when Trump hinted at a possible reduction of high tariffs and displayed a softer stance towards Beijing. Markets interpreted this as a long-awaited signal for de-escalation of the trade war, and the reaction followed immediately: American stocks soared sharply. Key indices showed growth: the S&P 500 was up about 2.0%, the tech Nasdaq gained 2.5%, and the industrial Dow Jones added about 500 points. Stocks of companies from consumer goods, technology, and communications sectors – those most affected by trade barriers – particularly rallied.

#USStockDrop
The U.S. continues to follow a familiar scenario: swinging the negotiation pendulum, Washington alternates sharp measures with signals of easing, trying to control market reactions and the agenda. Treasury Secretary Bessent's statement about possible de-escalation of the conflict with China was yet another attempt to soften the consequences of his own tough rhetoric — against the backdrop of just announced tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods. Markets reacted quickly, but not so much with enthusiasm as with an attempt to restructure for the new phase of the game.

#USChinaTensions
International trade continues to be at the center of geopolitical turbulence. Against the backdrop of reports about possible tariff relief from the U.S. for countries willing to cut trade with China, Beijing issued a sharp warning, promising 'decisive and reciprocal' countermeasures in case its interests are undermined. The Chinese Foreign Ministry and Ministry of Commerce urged the global community to reject 'unilateral intimidation' from Washington — the hint is more than transparent.

#TrumpVsPowell
The spring of 2025 turns Washington into a battleground for control over America's most important asset — the dollar. And this struggle is not about the interest rate. It is an attempt to rewrite the rules of the global economy. Trump has gone on the offensive, wanting to subordinate the dollar to a new logic — not global stability, but American benefit. His goal is to weaken the currency, bring back manufacturing, wrest monetary power from the hands of 'independent technocrats,' and make it part of the White House again.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued sharp warnings: Donald Trump's tariff policy could seriously impact the U.S. economy. According to Powell, the new tariffs threaten to accelerate inflation and slow growth — a volatile combination that the Fed is trying to protect the economy from.

#TrumpTariffs
China continues to resist the tariff pressure from the United States. The government stimulus program implemented in response to the tariff restrictions from the U.S. allowed China to improve its economic indicators in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing market forecasts: