The American stock market has stalled in a sideways trend: investors are navigating between new tariff threats from President Trump, easing inflationary pressures, and mixed corporate reports. Against this backdrop, indexes are behaving differently — Nasdaq is slightly losing, Dow is gaining, and S&P 500 is balancing.

Key points and their analysis:


1. Inflation: stagnation or the beginning of a reversal?

  • Fact: The Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly remained at zero in June. Prices for services fell by 0.1%, especially in the tourism, logistics, and financial services sectors. Core PPI (excluding energy and food) also remained unchanged — against a forecast of +0.2%.

  • Addition: Prices for goods, on the contrary, slightly increased (+0.3%), particularly for electronics and gasoline, but this was not enough for an overall increase in the index.

  • Comparison with CPI: Consumer inflation (CPI), published the day before, also turned out to be softer than expected. Core inflation rose only by 0.2% month-over-month — the fifth consecutive month below forecast.

  • Interpretation: This may signal that inflationary pressures in the US economy are indeed easing, despite tariff risks.

  • Comment from the Fed: Dallas Fed President Lori Logan, however, stated that rates may remain high longer if trade policies continue to push prices up.

  • Conclusion: The picture is mixed. Actual data provide grounds for rate cuts, but the Fed itself remains cautious — too many uncertainties.


2. Treasury yields are adjusting downward.

  • Fact: The yield on 10-year bonds fell to 4.46%, retreating from a 5-week peak.

  • Reason: A combination of soft inflation and expectations that the Fed might ease its stance as early as September.

  • Conclusion: The bond market confirms a shift in expectations — towards a "dovish" policy.


3. Corporate reporting: it's complicated.

  • Winners: Johnson & Johnson (+6%), Goldman Sachs (earnings above forecast), Progressive.

  • Losers: Morgan Stanley (-3%), Adobe (-36% over the year), Marsh & McLennan.

  • Feature: Even strong reports do not always please investors — weak revenue or negative forecasts disappoint.

  • Conclusion: Market participants are increasingly looking not at the fact of profit, but at its sustainability in an unstable economy.


4. Trump intensifies the tariff front.

  • Fact: 10%+ tariffs are planned on goods from over 100 countries. Indonesia's rate has been reduced from 32% to 19% — a signal of potential flexible deals.

  • Context: The White House is using a "good cop, bad cop" strategy, creating uncertainty and pushing partners towards negotiations before August 1.

  • Conclusion: Geo-economic rhetoric is once again becoming a driver of volatility — markets are nervous.


5. Production is stabilizing, but it's weak.

  • Fact: Industrial production rose by 0.3% in June. A modest increase for the second consecutive month.

  • Problem: The utilization of production capacities is still below the long-term average (77.6% vs. 79.6%).

  • Conclusion: The sector is reviving but remains sensitive to demand fluctuations and tariff risks.


6. The housing market is under pressure.

  • Fact: Mortgage applications collapsed by 10%, rates have risen after a two-week decline.

  • Reasons: Rising yields and overall economic uncertainty are causing households to postpone major decisions.

  • Conclusion: The real estate sector acts as an early indicator of consumer sentiment — signaling increasing caution.

Macro summary:

The paradox of the current moment — a combination of declining inflation and rising political uncertainty. Soft PPI/CPI seemingly opens the way for the Fed to lower rates. But the market is not in a hurry to celebrate: threats of tariffs, yield fluctuations, and weakness in certain sectors indicate the fragility of recovery.

What does this mean for crypto investors?

  • Weakened dollar + expectations of rate cuts — a potential positive for BTC and stablecoins.

  • Rising tariffs and geo-economic risks — a risk factor for risk-on assets, including the crypto market.

  • Key trigger — the Fed meeting in September: if inflation remains soft, it could provoke a rise in the crypto market, especially against the backdrop of political volatility.