The American stock market has stalled in a sideways trend: investors are navigating between new tariff threats from President Trump, easing inflationary pressures, and mixed corporate reports. Against this backdrop, indexes are behaving differently — Nasdaq is slightly losing, Dow is gaining, and S&P 500 is balancing.
Key points and their analysis:
1. Inflation: stagnation or the beginning of a reversal?
Fact: The Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly remained at zero in June. Prices for services fell by 0.1%, especially in the tourism, logistics, and financial services sectors. Core PPI (excluding energy and food) also remained unchanged — against a forecast of +0.2%.
Addition: Prices for goods, on the contrary, slightly increased (+0.3%), particularly for electronics and gasoline, but this was not enough for an overall increase in the index.
Comparison with CPI: Consumer inflation (CPI), published the day before, also turned out to be softer than expected. Core inflation rose only by 0.2% month-over-month — the fifth consecutive month below forecast.
Interpretation: This may signal that inflationary pressures in the US economy are indeed easing, despite tariff risks.
Comment from the Fed: Dallas Fed President Lori Logan, however, stated that rates may remain high longer if trade policies continue to push prices up.
Conclusion: The picture is mixed. Actual data provide grounds for rate cuts, but the Fed itself remains cautious — too many uncertainties.
2. Treasury yields are adjusting downward.
Fact: The yield on 10-year bonds fell to 4.46%, retreating from a 5-week peak.
Reason: A combination of soft inflation and expectations that the Fed might ease its stance as early as September.
Conclusion: The bond market confirms a shift in expectations — towards a "dovish" policy.
3. Corporate reporting: it's complicated.
Winners: Johnson & Johnson (+6%), Goldman Sachs (earnings above forecast), Progressive.
Losers: Morgan Stanley (-3%), Adobe (-36% over the year), Marsh & McLennan.
Feature: Even strong reports do not always please investors — weak revenue or negative forecasts disappoint.
Conclusion: Market participants are increasingly looking not at the fact of profit, but at its sustainability in an unstable economy.
4. Trump intensifies the tariff front.
Fact: 10%+ tariffs are planned on goods from over 100 countries. Indonesia's rate has been reduced from 32% to 19% — a signal of potential flexible deals.
Context: The White House is using a "good cop, bad cop" strategy, creating uncertainty and pushing partners towards negotiations before August 1.
Conclusion: Geo-economic rhetoric is once again becoming a driver of volatility — markets are nervous.
5. Production is stabilizing, but it's weak.
Fact: Industrial production rose by 0.3% in June. A modest increase for the second consecutive month.
Problem: The utilization of production capacities is still below the long-term average (77.6% vs. 79.6%).
Conclusion: The sector is reviving but remains sensitive to demand fluctuations and tariff risks.
6. The housing market is under pressure.
Fact: Mortgage applications collapsed by 10%, rates have risen after a two-week decline.
Reasons: Rising yields and overall economic uncertainty are causing households to postpone major decisions.
Conclusion: The real estate sector acts as an early indicator of consumer sentiment — signaling increasing caution.
Macro summary:
The paradox of the current moment — a combination of declining inflation and rising political uncertainty. Soft PPI/CPI seemingly opens the way for the Fed to lower rates. But the market is not in a hurry to celebrate: threats of tariffs, yield fluctuations, and weakness in certain sectors indicate the fragility of recovery.
What does this mean for crypto investors?
Weakened dollar + expectations of rate cuts — a potential positive for BTC and stablecoins.
Rising tariffs and geo-economic risks — a risk factor for risk-on assets, including the crypto market.
Key trigger — the Fed meeting in September: if inflation remains soft, it could provoke a rise in the crypto market, especially against the backdrop of political volatility.
