Bitcoin is the spotlight, but wealth often arises in the shadows outside the light. Hello everyone, I am Lao Zhao. Bitcoin has surged to $123,000 in recent days, and my social circle is buzzing about the return of the bull market, but my eyes are fixed on a group of old coins — XLM surged 82% in a week, ADA soared 30%, and DOGE shot up 18%! These long-dormant old coins suddenly revived together, which is no coincidence.
Current market: The powder keg of altcoin season has already begun to emit smoke.
1. Capital currents are surging.
Don’t be fooled by Bitcoin’s dominance; the TOTAL3 index (the total market cap of altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) has quietly broken through the descending wedge, and institutional funds are flowing back like an undercurrent after the tide recedes. Even more strikingly, stablecoin reserves have surged to a historical high of $31 billion, equivalent to a full ammunition depot just waiting to ignite and launch.
2. The riot of old coins conveys key signals.
The fact that XLM, an antique project from 2014, can double in a week indicates that retail funds are beginning to flow back! Historical experience shows that the revival of old coins often signals the start of altcoin season — they have a broad retail base, much like a thermometer for market sentiment. Even Delphi Digital admits: this year, old coins have outperformed the hot AI and DePIN concept coins.
3. Key indicators are starting to turn.
The Altcoin Season index has soared from 15 to 32 in half a month. Although it is still far from the confirmed line of 75, the turning point is clearly visible.
If BTC's market cap share falls below 65%, it will trigger a large-scale switch of funds to altcoins.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate surged 8% in a week, the awakening of the 'King of Altcoins' often serves as the rallying call.
Lao Zhao's view: This altcoin season is different!
My observation is: this round will be an institutionalized bull market, which is fundamentally different from the 2021 FOMO driven purely by retail investors.
Institutional funds are the main force: Bitcoin/Ethereum spot ETFs are like a giant straw, drawing milk from traditional finance. After filling up on BTC/ETH, the overflow will inevitably flow into high-potential altcoin fields.
Infrastructure maturity is backing: Ethereum L2 performance explosion, Polkadot elastic sharding upgrade at the end of July, Solana ecosystem continues to expand... On-chain applications are no longer castles in the air, real use cases support token value.
The local battlefield has opened fire: EUL, PENGU, AAVE, named by Bankless, all have solid fundamentals + recent catalysts. Smart money has already begun to lay out positions, rather than randomly trading junk coins.
My personal watchlist
Screened by the logic of 'narrative + catalyst', rejecting mysticism:
1. Polkadot($DOT ):
The end-of-month elastic sharding upgrade is underway (the testnet has been successfully run), and a technical breakthrough at the $4.6 neckline will shoot straight to $6. The true narrative of Blockchain 3.0, hold on tight and don’t fumble.
2. Hyperliquid($HYPE ):
TVL has increased from $300 million to $500 million in two months, and institutions are voting with their feet. MACD maintains a bullish structure, and any pullback is an opportunity.
3. Aave($AAVE ):
Both TVL and loan volume have hit new highs, with the buyback machine pool swallowing $13 million this month as a bottom support. DeFi regulation has loosened + demand for leverage has surged, maintaining a steady offensive.
Beware: SUI will unlock $160 million this month (possible sell-off), and the liquidity trap of obscure coins (3-day limit orders that can't be sold are no joke!).
True words for my friends
Position management > all-in faith: Don't exceed 5% of total funds in a single coin, otherwise a zero-value coin will teach you a lesson.
Only trade mainstream exchange coins: obscure coins are delisted like cutting leeks, Gate.io cleaned up 13 of them in one go last month.
Stop-loss is a lifesaver: holding a position from a 30% loss to a 45% disaster just because you couldn't bear to sell.
Finally
History will not simply repeat itself, but it always carries similar rhythms. When whales start swimming into altcoin waters, the waves will eventually rise.
If Bitcoin surges to $145,000 in the short term and then corrects (analyst James Wynn's view), the next 1-2 months will be the golden window for altcoins.
Lao Zhao dares to say: The biggest wealth password in 2025 is not in the brilliance of Bitcoin, but in the wild growth in the cracks of altcoins! Follow Lao Zhao for daily strategies and get the info in advance #山寨季何时到来? .