老赵趋势

Tonight at 21:30, the central bank team led by Powell will hold a meeting, definitely the most significant event of the week! Old Zhao will give everyone a sneak peek, predicting how these big shots will hold water, and how crypto people should respond and even take advantage!

Old Powell is now harder than walking on a tightrope. On one side, Trump is holding a gun to his head shouting for interest rate cuts, and on the other side, his own colleagues are arguing fiercely. Let's see how he performs tonight! The 'king of understanding' curses every day, saying if there are no interest rate cuts, he will fire you! Open pressure is rarely seen in history! The pressure is immense! The Federal Reserve is also divided internally, with doves and hawks arguing like a vegetable market! Old Powell is the chairman and must be the master of water-holding to stabilize the situation.

Learn this simplest method of trading cryptocurrencies, and you will slowly become wealthy. Firmly master the following 10 rules! Personally tested and effective; newbies can just follow! The fastest way in the crypto world is the slow way! Learn these 10 simple rules, and even a dull knife can slice through the market! Don't laugh; it's these basic tricks that saved this old investor's life!

1. A strong coin drops for 9 days? Don't be afraid; it's an opportunity!
How to do: Look for those previously strong coins (like SOL, ETH); if they drop continuously for 9 days from a high position, don’t hesitate; enter with a small position and wait!
Why: Market makers typically wash out positions in 7-10 days, and the 9th day often marks the bottom! Last year, I bottomed out APT after it dropped for 9 days, and it rebounded 40% in 10 days—what a great deal!

I really didn't expect this, that Tesla owners and old crypto investors would one day become revolutionary comrades! Did everyone understand Old Musk's operation? This situation is even more thrilling than the Dogecoin pump; Musk's battle against American politicians is something I stayed up all night to follow! Let me clarify why the giant and beautiful bill can force the richest man to flip the table and rebel! Simply put, when the bill cuts your subsidies, blocks your financial paths, and shatters your beliefs!

1. How sinister are the bills? Every cut is a stab at Musk's kidneys! Cutting new energy subsidies, Tesla is bleeding out! This broken bill claims to reduce taxes and distribute money, but then cancels the electric vehicle tax credits! Tesla's cost per car skyrockets by $3,750, leading to a net loss of $1.2 billion a year! Isn't this purely targeting Musk? Without subsidies back then, Tesla would have gone bankrupt; now that it's strong, it comes to unload the burden and kill the donkey?

Brothers, are you confused? ETH ETFs are bringing in money every day, and SharpLink's Ethereum micro-strategies are buying up, logically speaking,

it should be on the rise! But why is it so soft?

The truth might be a bit painful. It's not that no one is buying; it's that some big players are secretly running away! This big player is very clever, using two wallet addresses to pull off something. In just the last three weeks, they redeemed 95,313 ETH, worth nearly 300 million dollars, from staking.

What's even harsher is that they have quickly thrown 68,182 ETH into exchanges like HTX, OKX, and Bybit! Once it goes to the exchange, it's highly likely that they want to sell!

Brothers, there's big news in the guaranteed profit track! Circle's recent actions are divine. Just listed on the US stock market with a stock price skyrocketing 5 times, it immediately turned to the regulatory authority to apply for a national trust bank license, aiming to establish the first national digital currency bank! In simple terms, it will be able to manage its own $60 billion reserves without fearing incidents like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, and it can legally help large institutions custody assets like Bitcoin, stocks, and bond tokens! The most interesting part is that this license doesn't allow it to attract deposits and lend, thus avoiding the heavy regulation of traditional banks, enabling it to charge into the trillion-dollar custody market with ease!

The crypto world is not a casino, it’s a jungle! Want to pick up money here? First, learn to survive! Old Zhao is here to share with you the hardcore rules of survival and money picking.
1. Survival Guide: Keep your wallet tight, don't get skinned!
1. How to divide money? Make a pyramid!
50% Ballast: Just buy Bitcoin and Ethereum! In a bear market, if it drops by 30%? You can still sleep well! This is your capital for a comeback!
30% Potential Stocks: Target AI, Depin (decentralized physical networks), RWA (real-world assets) – these future potential tracks, buy their leading coins like $RNDR , $AKT . Note! These are leaders, not just any random coins!

I often see people lamenting that if they had bought Bitcoin earlier, they would have become rich. This hides several key misconceptions. In hindsight, opportunities seem abundant, but beforehand, there are risks everywhere.
In the investment market, never use known results to retroactively infer past decisions based on outcomes you know now! Standing in 2010, Bitcoin was an experimental virtual currency known to almost no one. There were no mature exchanges, and trading was extremely cumbersome at the time. There were risks of high technical failures, policy crackdowns, and being hacked to zero. Its value was highly unstable, potentially worth 1 yuan today and worthless tomorrow.

Trump's tariff policy has a multidimensional and profound impact on the cryptocurrency market, causing both short-term volatility and accelerating structural changes in the medium to long term. Combining the latest market dynamics and policy logic, its effects can be summarized in the following four core dimensions:

I. Short-term Impact: Risk Aversion Leading to Plummeting Prices and Surging Volatility
1. Market Panic Selling
After tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico were imposed in February 2025, Bitcoin plummeted 9.3% to $93,000 in a single day, with over $900 million in liquidations across the network; in April, reciprocal tariff policies led BTC to a low of $74,500 and ETH to $1,411, with altcoins generally halving in value. The main reason is that investors view crypto assets as a high-risk category, shifting funds to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

GF Securities has launched Hong Kong's first tokenized security, GF Token. The positive impact on the cryptocurrency market can be analyzed from multiple dimensions, integrating policy background, technological implementation, and market effects:

1. Deep integration of traditional finance and the crypto market
1. Providing compliance endorsement for cryptocurrencies
GF Token is a compliant product under the regulatory framework of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and its underlying logic also employs blockchain technology, essentially being traditional securities packaged as tokens. This move links mainstream brokerage credit with crypto technology for the first time, significantly enhancing institutional trust in blockchain assets and injecting long-term legitimacy expectations for mainstream currencies like BTC and ETH.

Looking at the recent trend of Bitcoin, Lao Zhao feels that it may touch the previous high points again. In terms of altcoins, there is a high probability of a small rebound, and a small peak market cannot be ruled out.

The current overall market situation mainly looks at a few points:

1. Short-term risks are not obvious, and there is no significant systemic risk in sight. The only key time point to pay attention to is July 9, which is the expiration of the 90-day deadline for China-US negotiations; however, the market has not reacted much so far, representing a potential risk that has not yet fermented.

2. The sentiment in the A-share market is warming, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. Last week, the banking sector adjusted, indicating that funds are more inclined to flow into industries with stronger growth potential. At the same time, the regulatory authorities plan to expand the price fluctuation limit for ST stocks from 5% to 10%, which signals a policy encouraging market activity and enhancing risk tolerance.

First, the understanding king personally calls for Bitcoin, then Hong Kong responds with a big move! On August 1, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched the world's first (stablecoin licensing system), establishing rules for a $250 billion market, and all unlicensed stablecoins are out! JD.com and Standard Chartered quickly submitted applications, Chinese brokerage stocks collectively exploded, with Guotai Junan's market value soaring by 23.4 billion in a single day!

JD.com, Standard Chartered, and Ant Group are frantically grabbing licenses, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's sandbox list leaked, giants are betting on a cross-border payment revolution! JD.com claims it will cut 90% of cross-border costs, with 10-second transactions crushing SWIFT, and trillions in foreign trade funds are shifting to Hong Kong!

Below is Old Zhao's analysis of the ETH trend shared on the 28th:

As expected, the market moved accordingly this morning. Just as Old Zhao predicted, after making an effective breakthrough of the range, the upward channel was successfully opened, directly attacking near 2520. Old Zhao also seized this wave of rising market firmly, and the take-profit point was also nailed down precisely, exiting at the best point! Friends who followed along should also pay attention, timely taking profit is safer. Next, we just wait for the market pullback to end. Old Zhao believes there is a high probability that there will be another wave of upward movement. Friends who are unsure about how to enter at the right point can follow Old Zhao for real-time updates on entry points!

Recently, I’ve seen many newcomers entering the market, which reminds me of the pitfalls I faced back then. Today, I want to share something practical; here, Lao Zhao presents a survival manual for these new friends.

Are you confused when you just enter the cryptocurrency space? First, listen to me talk about ten bucks to calm down. The crypto market is not an ATM; it’s more like a high-end casino. Out of ten people who rush in, seven lose money, two break even, and only one makes a profit! Bitcoin and Ethereum are different from stocks; they don’t have companies backing them. Their price fluctuations depend entirely on people's emotions, commonly referred to as blind speculation. Those who talk about hundredfold coins have lower odds than winning the lottery; newcomers rushing in are like lambs to the slaughter!

Last night's news: Inflation exploded → Interest rate cuts cooled → Dollar soared → Crypto market collapsed

This week, ETH has been jumping between 2465-2385 like a wind-up toy, while others curse the dealer, Lao Zhao laughs and slaps the table!
Enter short position at 2447 → Close short and reverse long at 2400 → Take profit at 2440, three waves of operation netting 354% profit!

Why dare to play like this?

2465 = Death Ceiling

Three high spikes with a massive short position overhead

MACD top divergence dead cross → Short with closed eyes!
2385 = Golden Dog Head Guillotine

Half-year strong support level + Panic explosive volume

RSI falls into the abyss of 30 → Fully loaded to bottom fish!

Technical Analysis:
The dealer draws the box, and Lao Zhao draws the financial path! As shown in the picture, it is simple and clear. As long as the box does not break, it is stable and happy. The 80-point space from 2465 to 2385 can be your automatic withdrawal channel if operated properly! In the short term, without news or explosive volume, it is highly likely to maintain the box structure and continue to consolidate. The key pressure and support points are clearly marked! Everyone can also copy the homework! For the long position, pay attention to whether it breaks upwards and closes above 2465, then you can see the previous high point of 2520, this key pressure point. Once there is an effective breakthrough at 2520, it will open the rising channel, and it is likely to continue to rise after a slight pullback! For the short position, look at the second support point of the Fibonacci line at 2365 and the watershed at 2315, two key points.

Last night, the Bitcoin spot ETF swallowed another 226.7 million dollars! BlackRock's IBIT took 163.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC followed with 32.85 million, and Bitwise snapped up 25.16 million. It has seen net inflows for 13 consecutive days! But don't get too emotional. On-chain whales are moving chips to exchanges, and the long-short meat grinder is already warming up!

ETFs hide three hidden knives
1. Institutions play the hedging game: In June, ETF inflows totaled 1.13 billion dollars, but BTC price fell by 4.4%! What's the catch? The options market is aggressively selling put contracts, and the PUT/CALL ratio has skyrocketed. Large funds are buying spot while purchasing insurance, making profits even during crashes.
2. Grayscale GBTC slows down, hiding danger: In June, only 23 million dollars flowed out of GBTC, the lowest since January. While it appears that selling pressure has weakened, in reality, the market makers are holding back for a big move, with 380,000 BTC ready to crash the market; the 1.5% management fee scythe is not rusty!

In the early trading, BTC was suffocating and oscillating between 107200 and 107500. The intraday chart was like a dog dealer drawing it with a ruler! Currently, it is stuck at the key position of 107350. It has not broken through 5 times in 1 hour, but the high point of each rebound has been moving down from 107655 to 107550 to 107450. It is a typical case of boiling a frog in warm water.

107350: Long and short meat grinder password
The dealer controls the market precisely. The on-chain pending orders show that 12,000 BTC are gathered at 107350, with long and short orders, 80% of which are algorithmic high-frequency orders. This is exactly the biggest pain point of yesterday's US stock closing price + cyclical rights. The dog dealer welded the slaughter coordinates on the K-line!

The volume alarm sounded, and the hourly trading volume dropped sharply to 2.8 billion dollars, less than 50% of yesterday's average, and the Bollinger Band width was compressed to 0.7%! Historical data warns that there is a 92% probability of a change in the market after this kind of suffocating shock, and the probability of a sharp drop is 3 times that of a sharp rise!

Brothers! Friends! Today I’m sharing some 'clumsy' truths about the crypto world from the bottom of my heart. They sound simple, but if you can really do them, even the market makers would have to give you a wide berth. Why? Because you’re so steady that they have no way to take advantage of you!
The most ruthless tricks in the crypto world are often hidden in those seemingly foolish, most needed patient methods!
I’ve seen too many people enter the crypto world as if they’ve been injected with adrenaline. What happens? They don’t make money, only working for exchanges and market makers. I’ve also stepped into pits, paid tuition fees, and today I summarize these three don'ts and six must-dos, all learned from painful lessons!