• BTC price is fluctuating around 117,500–118,500 USD, after breaking the historical peak near $118,800 on July 11.
• Capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs continues to be strong, with daily liquidity exceeding 250 million USD, indicating stable institutional buying power.
• No major economic events in the last 2 days of the weekend, but the market may react to political developments or rumors on social media.
Short-term technical analysis (1H/4H/D1 Chart):
🔹 Short-term support:
• 115,800 USD (MA20 – D1 timeframe)
• 114,000 USD (Fib 0.382 after the increase from 108k to 118.8k)
🔹 Nearest resistance:
• 118,800 USD (new historical peak)
• 120,000 USD (psychological zone + short-term profit taking)
🔹 Technical indicators:
• RSI (4H): ~65 – not overbought, still room for increase.
• MACD (4H): the MACD line crosses above the signal → a signal for continued increase.
• Volume: remains positive, no signs of decreasing divergence.
Psychological factors and news:
• No major economic events, but the overall sentiment is positive due to:
• The upward momentum from crypto stocks (MicroStrategy, Coinbase…).
• President Trump continues to show a “pro-crypto” stance, promoting laws favorable to Bitcoin (GENIUS Act, Clarity Act…).
• However, at the weekend liquidity is thinner, making it prone to unexpected fluctuations (flash spike or slight dump due to bot trading).
Recommended trading strategy:
• Swing trader:
• Look to buy around the 115,800–116,500 zone if there is a correction.
• Short-term profit taking target around 119,500–120,000.
• Intraday trader:
• Watch for a breakout at 118,800. If it breaks and holds above 1H, a light long position may be opened.
• Tight stop loss below 115,000 with high leverage.
• HODLer:
• Continue to hold, no need to worry about short-term fluctuations.
• BTC is still in a strong upward wave according to the post-halving cycle, with a year-end target >130,000 still reasonable.$BTC