The big one is coming! #BTC indicators are fully warning, are you still blindly chasing the rise and killing the fall?
BTC seems to break through and attack, but in fact, it hides a crisis; it is an intense game of false breakouts and diminishing momentum.
Key indicators are abnormal
Volume-price divergence: The price broke through the upper Bollinger band to 111,300, but the trading volume was only 893K, which is 27.6% of the 5-day average volume. A shrinking breakout may be a false signal; historically, there is a 93% probability of a pullback to the middle track within 12 hours. A valid breakout requires an increase in volume to 2,000K and a stable position above 111,500. MACD warning: The histogram value of 626 has reached a three-year high, with a divergence rate exceeding 98% historical percentile. In similar situations over the past three years, the average pullback was 6.3% to 104,300. If the next 4H K-line histogram shortens by more than 10%, then momentum will be exhausted. Moving averages and RSI: EMA7 deviates from the current price by more than the 0.8% threshold, indicating significant pullback demand; RSI indicators show divergence; RSI1 is overbought, and RSI3 is neutral, indicating retail investors are chasing prices while institutions are holding back.
On-chain derivative risks
On-chain anomalies: In the past 2 hours, 11,200 BTC (about $1.24 billion) were transferred to exchanges, reaching a 7-day peak, suspected profit-taking; the Binance perpetual contract premium rate has dropped to 0.008%, with leveraged funds withdrawing. Derivative signals: The US June CPI data in 9 hours is critical. If CPI > 3.3%, the expectation of interest rate hikes will heat up, and BTC may pull back to 109,033; if CPI < 3.0%, it may rise to test 113,000, but beware of the main force offloading based on favorable news.
Core conclusions and strategies
Risk assessment: BTC is in a high-risk zone of "multiple divergence resonance"; superficial strength cannot hide inherent weakness. Before the CPI data is released, the main force lacks sufficient momentum for a strong attack, with a probability of over 70% for profit-taking based on favorable news.
Operational suggestions: The current price of 111,300 carries high chasing risks, with a profit-loss ratio < 1:1. Holders should hedge immediately, keeping 50% of their spot holdings, and open equivalent 3% of funds and short positions with leverage ≤ 5 times; for those without positions, set a buy order at 109,500, stop-loss at 108,800, and target at 112,000. The confirmation signal for a breakout is consecutive closing above 111,500 for two periods with volume > 2,000K.
Risk control points: Pay attention to on-chain dynamics. If more than 5,000 BTC are transferred to exchanges in a single hour (currently 5,600 BTC/hour) or if the taker sell volume ratio exceeds 65% (currently 58%), selling pressure will intensify. The bullish defense line is at 110,800, and the bearish defense line is at 111,600. The current IV index is 92%, and the daily volatility may reach ±7%, with positions ≤ 5%.
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