The big one is coming! #banana 'crazy' market, are you ready to face the crash?

In the four-hour market for BANANA, extreme overbought conditions and volume divergence are prominent. After a false breakout above the upper track at 19.783, the closing failed to stabilize, with a volume of 97,973, which is 20.6% less than estimated, showing a lack of upward momentum. The MACD is bullish but the incremental slope is declining, the EMA7 is deviating from the current price by more than 3%, indicating high risk, and the RSI1 has reached 86.51, indicating extreme overbought conditions.

In terms of risk, after the BOLL false breakout, historically 91% have retraced to the middle track, averaging a drop of 8.5%. The volume needs to exceed 148,000 to reverse this trend. In the past two instances when RSI1 was >86, there were significant pullbacks; this time, the CPI shows a divergence in volume, increasing risk. The MACD histogram value's incremental slope is declining, diverging from the price, liquidity is poor, and selling pressure is 4.34 times that of buying pressure, making it prone to sharp declines during CPI releases.

Bullish and bearish scenarios: If CPI >3.3% and RSI1 <70, a sharp drop to 17.30 is possible (60% probability), consider opening a 3x short position and reducing spot holdings by 80%; if volume <85,000, a pullback to 18.50 is likely (30% probability), take profit above 19.70, and pursue shorts if it breaks 19.50; if CPI <2.9% and volume >150,000, a reversal to 21.50 is possible (10% probability), and if it breaks 19.78, consider light long positions on the retracement.

In my personal view, BANANA seems strong, but the core is unstable; RSI1 is overbought, volume is insufficient, and EMA7 is exceeding the threshold, with significant selling pressure before CPI, leading to high crash risk. The current price at 19.75 has a poor risk-reward ratio, with less than 4% upside and potential downside exceeding 11%. Those holding long should clear 70% at 19.70 - 19.80, and set a stop loss at 19.13 for the remaining; those without positions should set limit orders at 17.80 with a stop loss at 17.50, and consider buying option combinations for hedging.

BANANA is a small market cap token, with volatility 3.2 times that of BTC. Operations require monitoring on-chain whales and contract positions, maintaining the long-term support line at 19.13 and the short stop-loss line at 19.95. Clear leverages one hour before CPI, keeping ≤2% of spot. When CPI ≤3.0%, if there is a breakout above 19.78 with RSI1 <85, it is advisable to pursue long positions lightly. Small market cap tokens are 'liquidity black holes'; better to miss out than to make a mistake!

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