July 9: BTC/ETH Market Analysis and Intraday Trading Strategies
BTC: The current market is macroeconomically affected by proposed high tariffs, rising inflation expectations, a slowdown in ETF accumulation, and low on-chain activity, leading to a continuous decrease in trading volume. The divergence in volume from the peak creates pressure, and currently, there is insufficient bullish momentum. On the technical front, the daily chart is at the edge of forming a triple top, with the neckline support at the 105 level, which is key to the future market direction. If the volume increases and breaks below the 105 support level, the triple top structure will be established, targeting the range of 98-95 below. If a strong breakout above 112 occurs, it will open up a new mid-term bullish space. Currently, the daily chart is experiencing low-volume fluctuations at a high level, with clear support from the moving averages; do not chase after rising prices or sell off. The 4-hour chart shows a slight rebound after testing the 90-day moving average yesterday, currently forming a large bearish candle, and there may be further downward adjustments during the Asian session, with support around 1078. For intraday trading, focus on the pressure at the 1088-1098 levels for short opportunities and pay attention to the 1074 support level; if it breaks, watch for the 105 neckline support.
ETH: ETH beta is higher than BTC, and once risk appetite for capital recovers (e.g., easing U.S. Treasury yields, crypto ETF inflows), ETH often reacts faster. Similarly, if inflation expectations rise, ETH, as a more complex asset in terms of valuation models, will have larger correction space. The current daily trend is at the end of a converging triangle with shrinking volume, in a balanced state between bulls and bears; once a direction is established, it often brings a trend-level wave space of $200-$400, with the key being whether volume increases at the same time as the price breaks above 2650 or falls below 2480. Looking at the 4-hour chart, there is an overall slight upward fluctuation, but it has not broken the early month's high of 2635, currently forming a large bearish candle, and further declines are expected during the Asian session. For intraday trading, focus on the pressure at the 2600-2630 levels for short opportunities and pay attention to the support at the 2560-2530 levels.
