July 17th, Feige's currency remarks
Three major driving forces behind Ethereum's surge: liquidity, regulation, and interest rate cut expectations. Last night, Ethereum surged strongly, with core driving forces coming from three aspects:
1. Tether minted 2 billion USDT on the Ethereum chain, directly injecting liquidity into the ETH ecosystem. Following this, USDCTreasury minted 250 million USDC on the Solana chain, which will activate DeFi trading, staking, and other scenarios, reducing capital friction costs, essentially providing 'blood transfusions' to the Ethereum ecosystem and the entire cryptocurrency market, driving up demand for native tokens.
1. The U.S. House of Representatives passed procedural voting on the crypto bill, signaling regulatory clarity. Although it will take time to fully implement, this step alleviates compliance concerns for institutional entry, clearing obstacles for ETH to attract traditional funds and significantly enhancing market risk appetite.
2. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September approaches 70%, and expectations for macro liquidity easing are rising. In a low-interest-rate environment, traditional asset yields decline, and funds are more inclined to flow into high-elasticity markets like cryptocurrency. As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum naturally becomes an important target for fund allocation.
Technical analysis:
BTC: The current increase started from 98,200, forming two distinct upward wave structures. The first round high is around 110,000, with a rise of over 1.2 points; the second round high is at 123,000, with an increase of over 13,000 points. Currently, it is oscillating around 118,000, in a high-level consolidation phase within an upward trend. The previous high of 123,218 serves as a short-term top, with evident selling pressure, suggesting that there is some profit-taking or capital hesitation in the market in the short term. If it can stabilize above 123K again and break through with increased volume, it may continue to challenge new highs or enter a new acceleration phase. The lower level around 116K has been tested multiple times, forming platform support. The 4-hour chart clearly shows significant support at the 116K level. For intraday operations, focus on buying opportunities around the 117.2K-116K range and pay attention to resistance at 120K-121.5K above.
ETH: Ethereum's daily chart shows three consecutive large volume increases, with three consecutive large green candles approaching the January high of around 3430. This is a direct response to the influx of newly minted stablecoins into the market, with strong signs of institutional entry. Although there has been a slight pullback, this is indicative of short-term capital realizing profits, as well as a typical adjustment after a strong challenge to previous resistance. In subsequent market movements, if there is a correction, focus on the important support levels of daily MA14 and MA30. Additionally, the 3100-3200 range will form a 'breakout retest confirmation' pattern, which has the potential for further upward movement. The next target will be at 3600, with a continued view to 3900-4000. The 4-hour chart shows a volume surge around 3430 before starting to retreat, indicating a need for further adjustment. For intraday operations, focus on bullish opportunities around the 3250-3200 support level. Ethereum is exhibiting significant daily volatility, so consider phased entry for short-term trades, and the range can be slightly widened.
Altcoins: Bitcoin has entered a high-level consolidation phase, with large amounts of stablecoins minted, injecting liquidity into the market. Ethereum's significant rise may lead active market funds to flow into ETH L2, with clear rotation among sectors, as on-site funds seek a window for higher Beta returns. In the AI narrative sector, focus on FET + AGIX + OCEAN (soon merging into ASI); FET is worth paying attention to. The DePIN heat continues to rise, with substantial increases in coins within the sector, and LPT is worth focusing on. As Ethereum's rally spreads, the narrative of reduced Layer 2 costs is rekindling; the three major ecological projects OP, ARB, and ZK are regaining momentum and are worthy of attention. The new public chain ecosystem S, recently supported by Coinbase, shows clear capital attraction and is worth following. In the Ethereum staking sector, ldo and jto are worth monitoring closely. In the MEME sector, DOGE and NEIRO, recommended on Monday, have seen increases of 30% and 40%, respectively. The aforementioned coins can be added to your watchlist for further attention.
Cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, caution is needed for entry, personal opinions, not advice, for sharing only
