Washington's pen is rewriting the rules of the crypto world; this is not a prediction, but a countdown. In 10 days, the value of the tokens in your wallet may be redefined by three bills.
In simple terms, the US Congress plans to have intensive discussions and pass three important laws regarding cryptocurrency in the week of July 14. This is not a rumor; it has been publicly announced by senior Republicans, with Trump pushing for stablecoin legislation to be completed before August.
What are these three bills? Why are they important?
(Stablecoin Bill)(GENIUS Bill):
What does it regulate? Stablecoins like USDT and USDC that claim to be pegged 1:1 to the dollar.
Core requirements: Companies issuing these coins must genuinely hold an equivalent amount of dollars or ultra-safe assets (such as short-term government bonds). Those with particularly large operations (for example, exceeding $50 billion) must also have top accounting firms audit their books annually.
Who will be affected? Directly hitting giants like Tether and Circle. Smaller players that cannot meet strict reserve and audit requirements may be eliminated. The 'monopoly era' of compliant stablecoins may truly be upon us.
My viewpoint: This is actually a double-edged sword. In the short term, many small stablecoins may fail, leading to market turbulence. However, in the long term, strict audit and reserve requirements can greatly reduce the risk of 'blow-ups' (think of the LUNA collapse), attracting more traditional large funds to enter the market with confidence. For mainstream stablecoin issuers (like Circle), this may be a positive, provided they can comply.
(CLARITY Bill):
What does it regulate? Cryptocurrency exchanges (like Coinbase, Binance.US, and those smaller platforms).
Core requirements: Exchanges must completely separate user funds from their own company funds! They can no longer mix them together, nor can they casually misuse user funds for other purposes (like investments or loans).
Who will be affected? All exchanges, especially those that are poorly managed and may misuse user assets, smaller or less reputable exchanges. Compliant larger exchanges (like Coinbase) may gain more trust from users if they can prove they have been doing well.
My viewpoint: This is a significant advancement in the protection of user assets! The core of the FTX tragedy was the misuse of client funds. If this bill passes, it could greatly reduce the risk of exchanges 'running away' or 'being insolvent' leading to users losing everything. For platforms like Coinbase ($COIN) that have consistently emphasized compliance and segregation of customer assets, this is a major positive, effectively raising the industry's barriers. 'Customer funds segregation' will become the lifeline for exchanges.
(Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Bill):
What does it regulate? The 'digital dollar' that the Federal Reserve wants to create.
Core requirements: Directly prohibit! The Federal Reserve cannot research, test, or issue any form of central bank digital currency.
Who will be affected? The Federal Reserve's digital dollar plan will be directly 'sunk'. Cryptocurrencies emphasizing 'privacy protection' (like Monero XMR and Zcash ZEC) may be interpreted as 'beneficiaries' by the market, as government-led digital currencies with potential surveillance features get stifled.
My viewpoint: The political symbolism of this bill is greater than its actual market impact. The Federal Reserve's digital dollar is still in its infancy, facing enormous resistance. However, the bill sends a strong signal of 'anti-surveillance' and 'pro-privacy', which may temporarily boost the sentiment for privacy coins. Nonetheless, privacy coins themselves still face significant technical challenges and regulatory pressures (such as anti-money laundering), so do not expect them to take off solely because of this bill.
Political maneuvering: It's not that simple.
Why the urgency? The Republicans (especially Trump) want to fulfill their promises to the crypto industry before the elections to win over voters and funds. The Democrats question whether this is paving the way for related crypto interests of the Trump family.
Where is the controversy? Mainly around 'who will regulate':
Will stablecoins be managed by individual states or will the federal government impose strict regulations?
How will the rules for exchanges be specifically defined? What will be the standards?
Key point: The bill facing Congress does not guarantee a 100% passage nor does it ensure that the content remains unchanged. Opposition from Democrats and lobbying from interest groups could shrink or stall the bill. 'Crypto Week' is an important milestone but not the end point.
How will the market react? (Sensory perspective)
The survival of stablecoins: Giants like Tether and USDC face stringent audit and reserve proof pressures. Compliance costs are skyrocketing, and small stablecoins are likely to face mass extinction. The surviving giants will capture a larger market share, but profit margins may be squeezed. Keep an eye on companies like Circle for any IPO or related token plans (like the rumored $CRCL).
Shake-up in exchanges: 'Customer funds segregation' is a hard line for survival. Non-compliant exchanges, especially those misusing user funds, will accelerate closures or exits. Coinbase ($COIN)'s compliance advantages will be magnified, potentially leading to a large migration of users and funds. Blockchain projects providing compliance solutions (like fund custody segregation technology) (such as $QNT) are worth paying attention to.
Temporary euphoria for privacy coins?: The passage of the anti-CBDC bill will stimulate market interest in 'anti-censorship' and 'privacy protection' narratives, with $XMR and $ZEC possibly surging in the short term. However, remain clear-headed: these coins still face significant ongoing regulatory pressures, with extreme volatility and high risks.
Beneficiaries among underlying public chains: Whether stablecoins or exchanges, they ultimately need to operate on a blockchain. Ethereum ($ETH) and Solana ($SOL) serve as the main platforms for stablecoin issuance and trading settlement. If the stablecoin market expands overall due to compliance, they will be long-term beneficiaries. The new market demand will first reflect on these mainstream public chains.
Emergency layout? Think calmly!
As an analyst, I must emphasize: going all-in before significant policy implementation is an extremely dangerous gamble. However, smart money is indeed moving:
Embrace the leading players in compliance: $COIN (Coinbase) is the most direct beneficiary. If the stablecoin bill passes, related assets of compliant issuers like Circle are also worth paying attention to.
Focus on Layer 1 infrastructure: $ETH, $SOL serve as the ecological foundation and have more stable long-term value.
Stay away from high-risk assets: Small exchange tokens, small stablecoins with unclear reserves, and purely speculative privacy coins (unless you are skilled in trading and can withstand the risk of total loss) carry extremely high risks before policy clarity.
On-chain compliance service providers: Look for projects that genuinely address the pain points of 'funds segregation' and 'compliance reporting' for exchanges (such as $QNT), which may have long-term potential.
My core viewpoint:
This is not a 'nuclear bomb', but a 'rules reshaping'. Short-term volatility is inevitable (the passage of the bill may boost confidence, similar to how previous anti-CBDC news drove BTC up; detailed disputes or delays may trigger panic), but in the long run, clear regulations are a good thing as they eliminate the biggest barrier for institutional entry.
"Compliance premium" will become the new market logic. Projects and platforms that comply with the new US regulations will receive valuation reassessments.
Don't be shackled by FOMO. The bill still has uncertainties. July 14 is the start of intensive discussions, not the final decision day. Keep a close eye on voting progress and the final text.
"In 10 days, Washington lawmakers will press the voting button: will your crypto assets be on the fast track to compliance or remain in the unregulated wasteland? The answer will be revealed in the applause for the bill's passage—or the uproar of controversy. Are you ready to face the new map of the crypto world?" Follow Sensory to see through the phenomenon to the essence, navigating through bull and bear markets!
