Weekly Outlook: Non-Farm Payrolls Incoming! Trump Continues to Manipulate the Market, Will the Crypto Community Rise Up???
For the June non-farm payroll report, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%, with employment numbers dropping from a previous increase of 139,000 to 129,000. Other labor market data, such as the May JOLTs job openings data, will be released next Tuesday, while the June ADP private employment report will be published next Wednesday.
This week, the preliminary value of the US June S&P Global PMI exceeded expectations. Although the composite index slightly fell from 53.0 to 52.8, it remains well above the forecast value of 52.2. Price pressures in both manufacturing and services have surged sharply, with manufacturing seeing a particularly steep increase due to tariff reasons. More importantly, to cope with the increased workload, the pace of hiring by companies has reached its highest level in over a year.
If next week’s ISM data portrays a similar picture, investors may scale back their rate cut bets, especially if non-farm payroll data continues to show strong labor market performance. As the market gradually adapts to the idea that the Federal Reserve may remain patient before resuming its rate cut process, the dollar could rebound.
However, given that several members (such as Fed Governor Waller and Bowman) have shifted to a dovish stance and support a rate cut in July, combined with Trump exerting greater pressure on Powell and his colleagues to lower borrowing costs, any rebound in the dollar could be limited and short-lived.
