Report on June 27, 2025
After the US stock market opened yesterday, it continued to rise, with the Nasdaq index breaking a new high.
Circle surged 7.56%, with a market capitalization of $47.54 billion, while Coinbase also rose 5.54%, reaching a market capitalization of $95.53 billion.
However, Bitcoin did not follow the rise of US stocks; its upward momentum appears somewhat weak, fluctuating around $107,000 with reduced volume.
Currently, the market is in a vacuum period of positive and negative news, with attention shifting from geopolitical conflicts to tariff issues.
1. Middle East War
In the Middle East, Trump has stated that he will negotiate with Iran next week and may sign a nuclear agreement, which is essentially a strategy of fighting first and negotiating later.
Trump also revealed that he approved Iran's airstrike on the US military base in Qatar, and even Iran asked him if 1 o'clock would work.
This operation directly exposed the script of the performance, making both Iran and Israel very awkward. Trump wants to portray himself as in control of the situation, but he did not leave any face for either side.
In the short term, tensions may temporarily ease, but once Israel and Iran recover, they will likely continue to fight.
2. Tariff Agreement
Regarding tariffs, Trump said that a trade agreement has been signed with China, but did not specify what the agreement is.
The US Secretary of Commerce revealed that an agreement was indeed signed two days ago, where China will supply rare earths to the US, and the US will lift countermeasures against ethane and other products.
Combining the situation from the mid-June talks in London, this agreement may only be a realization of some previous consensus and cannot be considered a significant breakthrough; a comprehensive trade agreement is still far off.
Additionally, the Wall Street Journal mentioned that the EU may reduce tariffs on US goods. If true, coupled with the progress of the US-China agreement, the reciprocal tariffs on July 6 are likely to be postponed again, which is also within our expectations.
3. US Economic Data
Yesterday, the US announced that the GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was revised down by 0.3 percentage points to -0.5%, marking the first quarterly contraction since 2022.
The core PCE price index exceeded expectations, with personal consumption down 0.7 percentage points to 0.5%, marking the worst performance since the pandemic.
These data indicate that the US economy is somewhat weak, with reduced consumption, rising prices, and a noticeable slowdown in growth.
This is mainly due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy, but the market reacted calmly to this data.
Everyone is more focused on the second quarter GDP on July 30, as well as employment, consumption, and inflation data, which will determine whether the US economy will have a soft or hard landing.
Additionally, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US reached 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating that the job market is also cooling, with many people unable to find work.
Powell previously stated that he would focus on inflation and employment, with the employment and inflation data for June to be released in July.
Currently, US inflation expectations are rising, and the probability of a rate cut in July is further decreasing.
4. On-chain data
From the data perspective, the market capitalization ratios of Bitcoin and Ethereum are rising, but trading volume has slightly declined, remaining in a low-volume state.
The market capitalization ratio of altcoins is declining, indicating that everyone is switching to Bitcoin for hedging, and risk appetite is decreasing.
As Bitcoin's price fluctuates slightly, the turnover rate continues to decline; short-term investors are the main force in trading, while most medium- to long-term investors are on the sidelines.
Support levels have not changed much; the support level of $93,000-$98,000 remains stable, but the selling pressure at $100,500-$105,000 has slightly increased, with 50,000 fewer chips than yesterday. These are mainly short-term investors, and a longer time is needed to wash out and form stable support.
From the capital perspective, on-site funds have also decreased by 100 million, with a total of 262.4 billion. The market capitalization of USD is 157.217 billion, with a slight inflow of Asian capital, but trading volume is declining. The market capitalization of USDC decreased by 4.7 million, with a significant drop in trading volume.
Compared to the US stock market, the risk appetite in the crypto market is weaker, and capital in the US may be flowing into US stocks.
Overall, the market is currently in a news vacuum period, and we can pay attention to the PCE data released tonight.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are approaching historical highs, and everyone is watching whether it will break through or experience a phase correction.
In the face of the rise in US stocks, the upward momentum of Bitcoin has begun to weaken, and everyone may be waiting for the outcome after US stocks reach new highs before reacting, maintaining a short-term low-volume fluctuation.