Report of June 29, 2025
The U.S. stock market is closed on weekends, and surprisingly, the trading volume of BTC, ETH, and SOL is only about $300 million, with Bitcoin's trading volume even at the bottom. It now feels like the calm before the storm, as if the market is about to show a direction.
Currently, the trend of the cryptocurrency market is highly correlated with the U.S. stock market, and the focus has shifted from the previous war to tariffs.
Trump stated that the deadline for the tariff agreement on July 9 can be extended or shortened.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen also said that the trade negotiations of the Trump administration might be dragged until before Labor Day on September 1, and July 9 may not be the final deadline, which effectively pauses the tariff issue.
From the data, market liquidity has returned to a low point, with the turnover rate in the last 24 hours hitting a new low.
In terms of support, Bitcoin is very stable in the range of $93,000 to $98,000, and $100,500 to $105,000 is also quite solid. As long as there is no systemic risk, $100,000 is a strong short-term support.
From the spot ETF data, on June 27, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $501 million, with a cumulative inflow of $2.214 billion this week. Ethereum spot ETF also saw an inflow of $77 million.
Currently, the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges has dropped to 2.05 million. At this rate, it may fall below 2 million within a month, which is a critical point. Once a big market starts, it may trigger a BTC shortage.
Additionally, we need to pay attention to the market profitability indicators, which are important indicators for observing market activity and capital participation.
In the last bull market from 2020 to 2022, investors made a total profit of $550 billion, while this bull market has already earned $650 billion, indicating that the scale of capital this time is larger than last time, and the market is hotter.
This bull market has experienced three peaks: in March 2024, BTC rose to $70,000, showing strong market momentum.
In December 2024, BTC surged to $100,000, still very strong.
By June 2025, profits have decreased, and market participation has reduced, somewhat resembling the fatigue seen in the later stages of the previous bull market.
However, this profit decline does not mean that a bear market is coming, as the market logic has changed.
This bull market is dominated by large funds and institutions, with Bitcoin as the core. They have locked in a large amount of chips and are optimistic about the future, so short-term fluctuations have little impact.
Looking back at the last bull market, when BTC soared to $63,000 in November 2021, there were only 390,000 BTC chips at that price point, and there was little capital buying at a high.
A large amount of chips were concentrated at low levels; for example, at $3,400, there were 1.03 million BTC, and between $6,000 and $10,000, there were 2.66 million BTC.
These low-level chips are either held by those who are optimistic about the future and do not want to sell, or there is no one willing to buy at high prices, resulting in weak market support and oversupply, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin prices.
In contrast, during this bull market, when BTC peaked at $93,000 to $106,000 in June 2025, there were no price levels where the chips exceeded 300,000, indicating that high-level buying is very dispersed.
A large number of chips are piled up at high levels, with 1.95 million BTC between $93,000 and $98,000, and 1.59 million BTC between $104,000 and $106,000.
This profit decline is not due to being unable to sell, but because everyone is unwilling to sell; holders who bought at high prices are more willing to continue holding.
This brings two good signals: first, the bull market is not over yet, and there is currently very little selling pressure, so the market will not easily collapse.
Second, the pullback will not be too deep; there are many high-level chips, the market cost is high, and once it drops, someone will pick up the chips.
Overall, the short-term market is in a narrow range of fluctuations, with relatively low trading volume and volatility. It is estimated that a direction will soon emerge, and the trend of U.S. stocks next week will be crucial.
In the medium to long term, Bitcoin has strong support below, as everyone is unwilling to sell. Once a pullback occurs, it will be a good opportunity to pick up cheap chips.