July 1, 2025 Report
US stocks continued to set new highs after opening yesterday, mainly due to expectations for Trump's big beautiful plan passing, coupled with increasingly clear expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to an optimistic market sentiment.
However, Bitcoin did not follow the rise in US stocks. How long this surge in US stocks can last will depend on future performance.
Today's market focus has shifted from macro factors to stock tokenization and security tokenization.
Platforms like Kraken, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Bybit are moving US stocks onto the blockchain, allowing people to invest in US stocks directly with cryptocurrencies, significantly lowering the entry barrier.
Robinhood buys and holds stocks itself, then issues tokens on the Arbitrum chain. European users can trade spot and perpetual contracts 24 hours a day, and it may eventually transition to its own Layer 2 chain.
More importantly, it has not explicitly restricted Chinese users.
Bybit has partnered with Swiss company Backed to launch xStocks, covering 10 stocks including Google, Nvidia, and Tesla, trading directly on the blockchain.
This is positive for Solana and Arbitrum, and ARB has seen a rise recently due to this news.
Currently, companies like Coinbase, Circle, and Kraken are also accelerating their layouts.
Circle has applied for a license from the National Trust Bank of the United States, and Kraken is also applying for a brokerage license, indicating that the tokenization of US stocks may soon flourish.
This is a long-term positive for both Bitcoin and US stocks, but it is still just the beginning. The future will depend on capital inflows and execution.
From the data, Bitcoin's price did not change much on Monday, and the turnover rate was average. Market makers were slightly more active during the weekdays, but the actual trading volume is not high, and the market is still waiting for direction.
In terms of support levels, $93,000-$98,000 is the most stable, while $103,000-$107,500 is a new short-term support. There are relatively more short-term investors in this range, but overall it remains stable.
MicroStrategy bought another 4,980 BTC last week at an average price of $106,801, bringing its total holdings to 597,325 BTC, with an unrealized profit of nearly $22 billion.
The Japanese listed company Metaplanet also bought 1,005 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 13,350 BTC, making it the most successful imitator of MicroStrategy among Asian listed companies.
However, from the funding data, market liquidity appears to be somewhat weak, with trading volume lower than last Thursday.
Although on-chain capital has increased by 200 million, the total amount is now 2.626 billion, but trading activity has declined. USDC net inflow is 300 million, and capital inflow in the US is also slowing down, with trading willingness noticeably reduced.
Altcoins have shown slight fluctuations, but overall liquidity is low, and capital activity is poor, making it difficult to support a sustained rise.
Overall, the rise in US stocks is driven by the dual push of Trump's big beautiful plan and the expectation of interest rate cuts.
In the short term, risk assets lack strong stimuli, falling into a vacuum period of positive news. The entire crypto market is observing, and a direction may be emerging soon.