July 4, 2025 Daily Report
After the US stock market opened yesterday, it continued to rise, and Bitcoin also rose back above $110,000.
US non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell, indicating that the resilience of the US economy is still good, and the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates early to rescue the market.
After the data was released, the probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25.5% to 5.2%, and the hope for a July rate cut has basically disappeared, with a greater likelihood of a rate cut in September.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned the Federal Reserve that if there is no rate cut in July, they may have to increase efforts in September.
1. The big beautiful bill
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed the big beautiful bill with a vote of 218 to 214, and it is just waiting for Trump's signature to take effect.
However, the process is still very exciting; during the procedural voting, Republican Congressman Massey almost turned against the party, nearly causing the bill to fail.
It is said that Trump personally made phone calls to apply pressure, even threatening party support in the 2026 midterm elections to resolve the situation.
After this bill passes, it will be beneficial for US stocks and the crypto market in the short term, boosting market sentiment and increasing liquidity, but in the long term, it may increase the fiscal burden on the US.
2. Coin-stock market
Recently, the coin-stock market has been very popular, with major exchanges vigorously promoting it, trying to steal clients from traditional brokers.
The so-called coin-stock is to convert traditional stocks into blockchain tokens, 1:1 pegged to real stocks, making it convenient to trade with cryptocurrencies, lowering the investment threshold.
Currently, Chinese users account for more than half of the coin-stock market, with many people attracted by this new play.
Because it can bypass the restrictions of traditional stock markets, no need to report taxes, can trade globally at any time, and can be anonymous, it is basically a dimensionality reduction strike.
In the past 24 hours, the trading volume of stock tokens on the xStocks platform broke $10 million, with the number of holders of the S&P 500 reaching 9,310, Tesla 7,590, Nvidia 5,080, and both trading volume and holder numbers are surging.
The future of the cryptocurrency market will evolve, with more funds likely flowing into high-quality stocks rather than just focusing on Ethereum and altcoins, as quality assets become the new focal point.
3. On-chain data
From the data, after Bitcoin broke $110,000, the turnover rate also increased, especially with many short-term investors exiting.
It may be because the expectation of no interest rate cuts in July has led some people to feel that market performance in the short term won't be very good, and they are practicing high sell and low buy.
However, the support level from $93,000 to $98,000 remains very solid, with little change in the bottom holdings, indicating that medium to long-term investors are not selling much.
Currently, the amount held by long-term holders has reached 14.7 million coins, setting a new historical high.
This shows that everyone is very confident about the future market, especially the wave of corporate-level Bitcoin strategic reserves has brought in a large amount of funds.
This round of bull market has a shorter consolidation time, reaches high points faster, and has noticeable high-level fluctuations compared to 2021, with stablecoins attracting more off-market funds.
The demand at this round's bull market peak is stronger than in the last round; the selling pressure after Bitcoin's new high is not as large as imagined, with everyone becoming long-term holders.
From the fund level, the US M2 money supply has reached $21.94 trillion, setting a new historical high.
The total capital in the crypto market increased by $200 million, reaching $263.4 billion. The market cap of USDT is $158.273 billion, with a $44.7 million increase in 24 hours, and trading volume doubling, indicating continuous inflow of funds into the Asian market.
The market cap of USDC increased slightly by $0.04 million, with trading volume increasing by 60%, but there has been no significant inflow of funds from the US, just a slight increase in trading activity.
Currently, the main funds are still in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with no significant increase in market risk appetite. US investors are somewhat loud but have limited capital inflow, pushing prices up but with limited funds flowing in.
Overall, after Trump's big beautiful bill passes, it will boost market sentiment and liquidity in the short term.
The increase yesterday and today was mainly driven by Asian funds, and one should pay attention to the subsequent inflow of funds from US investors.
This week, there are only four working days in the US, with a holiday on Friday. Entering July, the game of tariffs and monetary policy from Trump is expected to become more intense, and short-term market volatility may increase.