#加密市场反弹 #BTC
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis on June 25, 2025:
Price Trend
As of June 25, 2025, 14:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin is priced at $106,200, having risen approximately 0.8% in the past 24 hours. The intraday high reached $106,790, while the low fell to $104,800, maintaining an overall range between $105,000 and $107,000.
On June 25, Bitcoin's price is around $106,666, with an intraday fluctuation between $105,024 and $106,935, showing a slight increase of 0.0126% compared to yesterday's close.
Technical Analysis
Daily K Trend: Bitcoin closed yesterday with a narrow range bullish candle, and the lower shadow did not break below the moving average, continuing the previous day's signal. This bullish candle is positioned above the moving average and shows a weakening of bearish volume, but does not provide much new information. The technical analysis maintains a strong support area judgment, with the possibility of further upward movement for a final peak, currently still in a three-wave continuation state, rather than a five-wave structure.
Hourly Level: The hourly level of Bitcoin shows a similar wedge adjustment pattern, but there are technical traps. Wedge adjustments typically occur in the fifth wave of a five-wave structure, while we are still in a three-wave continuation, so a breakdown should not be seen too negatively. Bullish volume is showing a reduction in volume, and trading volume is decreasing, which may indicate an intraday pullback but with limited extent.
On-chain and Holding Situation
Binance reports that the Bitcoin inflow/outflow ratio remains high, comparable to the beginning of the bull market at the end of 2023, indicating strong market demand and anticipating continued price increases.
On-chain data and whale behavior show that long-term holders and whales are continuing to accumulate, potentially laying the groundwork for a mid-term price increase.
Market Structure and Capital Flow
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is at its second-highest level in 2025, reflecting continued institutional investor purchases of ETFs.
Saxo Bank points out that the Federal Reserve's dovish policy and increased institutional demand support the market.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Impact
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, with hawkish rhetoric diminishing, boosting risk assets including Bitcoin.
The situation in the Middle East is stabilizing, alleviating some safe-haven sentiment, while falling oil prices also turn favorable for inflation expectations and crypto assets.
This weekend, over $14 billion in options will expire (on June 28), with the current call/put ratio significantly rising, as the market largely bets on an increase. If BTC maintains its main support area, it may trigger a new round of upward movement.
If it breaks through the $107,000 resistance level with increased volume, it is expected to test the $109k-$114k range; otherwise, it may retreat to around the $104k EMA support level.
