#币安Alpha上新 #BTC
Market dynamics and technical analysis on May 28, 2025,
Bitcoin maintains high volatility, currently reported at approximately $110,490, with a 24-hour fluctuation range of $109,800-$110,700. It is still away from the historical high of $112,509 set on May 22. Short-term bullish-bearish competition is fierce; the daily MACD remains above the zero axis, and the Bollinger Bands are slightly widening, indicating potential for an upward breakout.
Resistance levels: $111,500 (Bollinger Bands upper limit), $112,500 (historical high);
Support levels: $109,000 (recent fluctuation bottom), $108,200 (Bollinger Bands lower limit).
The RSI indicator is neutral to strong (about 61), and the funding rate remains positive, indicating the market is not overheated.
The conference from May 27-29 features speeches from political figures such as Trump's eldest son and institutional financing plans (e.g., $2.5 billion purchase of Bitcoin) boosting market sentiment.
Cumulative net inflow into Bitcoin ETF exceeds $42.4 billion, and BlackRock ETF has increased holdings for 19 consecutive days.
On-chain data: whale accounts are increasing Bitcoin holdings, and long-term holders' cost basis has reached the peak of this bull market, indicating confidence.
If positive policy signals are released during the conference (e.g., Vice President Vance's speech), Bitcoin may break through the resistance level of $111,500, further challenging the historical high of $112,500. However, caution is needed for the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' effect; if profit-taking pressure arises after the news, it may trigger a correction.
Key support testing: If it falls below $109,000, it may dip to the range of $107,500-$106,500.
Contract expiration impact: On May 31, Bitcoin monthly options and futures contracts expire, with open interest reaching historical highs, which may exacerbate volatility.
Bullish strategy: If the price stabilizes above $110,000 and trading volume increases, one can enter with a light position, setting a stop loss below $108,200.
Bearish strategy: If it falls below $109,000 and the trend line confirms the break, one can short in the short term, targeting $107,500.
Range trading: Buy low at $109,000 and sell high at $111,500, building positions in batches to control risk.
Bitcoin is likely to maintain a range of $109,000-$111,500 in the short term, with news during the conference dominating the breakout direction. Caution is needed for profit-taking after events materialize. The mid-term trend remains bullish, but attention should be paid to contract expirations and changes in macro policies. Investors are advised to control their positions (total capital ≤ 25%) and respond flexibly to volatility.
