Three economic events in the US — and each of them could trigger volatility. The market is waiting for signals from Jerome Powell, unemployment data, and fresh inflation statistics. In the context of instability in the Middle East, macro factors are once again coming to the forefront.
Powell will speak before Congress
On Tuesday, June 24, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will report to Congress on the state of the economy and plans for monetary policy. Questions will pertain to inflation, employment, and potential rate cuts. The speech will be monitored not only by investors but by the entire market.
If the rhetoric is tough, the market may once again price in expectations of maintaining high rates. In April, after similar comments, Bitcoin quickly fell into the red.
But if Powell hints at softness due to geopolitical risks, especially against the backdrop of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, it could support BTC and help it return above $100,000.
Unemployment is gaining significance
Next up are the data on initial jobless claims. Last week, 245,000 applications were recorded, the highest since October. The new figure is expected to be around 248,000.
If the forecast is exceeded, it will strengthen recession expectations. Such a backdrop often leads to a rise in cryptocurrencies, as market participants price in future rate cuts.
On the contrary, if the indicator turns out to be lower, it will strengthen the dollar and may put pressure on $BTC , especially in the pair with the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed.
The main inflation indicator is the PCE
The final point of the week will be the publication of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator. It accounts for price changes more broadly than the CPI and often triggers market reactions.
The forecast for May data is 2.3% for the overall index and 2.6% for the core. If the figures turn out to be higher, it will reduce the chances of policy easing. In this case, Bitcoin may experience short-term pressure.
However, a weak PCE is an opportunity. It may bring back expectations of a rate cut to the market and help cryptocurrencies turn positive.
What's next?
BTC is trading at $101,450, down 1.3% for the day. And although the week is just starting, macroeconomics is dictating the rules again. Whether Bitcoin will continue its correction — or turn towards new highs — will depend on Powell's words and the figures on inflation and unemployment.
