The current price of Bitcoin is once again testing the important support level of $102,000. This position corresponds to the midline orange line of the MVRV extreme deviation pricing range, which has historically been validated multiple times: the March rebound encountered resistance at the $93,000 orange line, and the June pullback found support at the $101,000 orange line. From market dynamics, under the premise of no significant negative interference, $102,000 is likely to become the starting point for a short-term rebound, and the effectiveness of its support is directly related to whether the bulls can restart the upward trend.

(Figure 1)

Technical charts indicate that if the current market rebounds and rises, the red line at $122,000 constitutes strong resistance; if it pulls back, the yellow line at $83,000 serves as a potential bottom area. However, if the support at $102,000 fails, the market will directly face the critical level of $98,000 — this point not only marks the upper boundary of the URPD accumulation zone B but is also the average cost line for short-term holders, viewed by the market as the 'bull-bear dividing line,' with its loss or gain directly affecting the shift in market sentiment.

(Figure 2)

The consolidation of Bitcoin in area A ($104,000 - $105,000) has led to a high concentration of chips, with approximately 1.16 million BTC (accounting for 6% of the circulating supply) accumulated in this area, forming a heavy profit-taking or trapped position. There are two possible developments for the market:

✅ Breakout trend: Main funds quickly pull up to above $122,000, attracting following orders through the breakthrough pressure point, gradually alleviating the profit-taking pressure in area A;

✅ Adjustment trend: Breaking below area A to test area B, reshaping the market cost structure through low-level chip turnover. However, it is important to note that if the latter is chosen, the massive trapped positions at $104,000 - $105,000 will extend the adjustment period, and the market may enter a bottoming phase.

Conclusion: The contest for the support level of $102,000 is essentially a game between long and short funds over chip costs. Players can use $122,000 and $98,000 as key anchor points for trend judgment and flexibly adjust strategies based on the actual breakout direction.