On the macro level, the Federal Reserve, in its latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, maintained the target interest rate at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth time it has remained unchanged since the beginning of the year. Meeting minutes revealed that officials generally expect a total rate decrease of 50 basis points by 2025, but the forecast for rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from the original 50 basis points to 25 basis points. In the face of uncertainties brought by geopolitical conflicts and global tariff policies, Powell emphasized the need to 'rely on data for decision-making' and will not rush to act until inflation continues to decline.
Regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, Powell pointed out that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by consumers: 'Without these tariffs, prices in the service sector should decline more quickly. But we need to see more actual data to make a judgment on the timing of rate cuts.' This statement has reignited market expectations for the first rate cut to begin in September.
On the other hand, JD Coin Chain Technology's stablecoin pilot is also progressing steadily. CEO Liu Peng stated that the first batch of Hong Kong dollar stablecoin tests has been basically completed, and more fiat currency varieties will be introduced in the future, applied in scenarios such as cross-border remittances, digital asset trading, and e-commerce consumption. JD Global Sales' Hong Kong and Macau station will be the first to support stablecoin payments, followed by integration with global compliance platforms, striving for wide adoption of stablecoins.
Overall, the recent slight increase in turnover rate is mainly influenced by short-term factors such as geopolitical conflicts. Currently, there are no significant signs of panic in the market: the range of $93,000–$98,000 forms a solid bottom support, while holders in the $100,500–$105,000 range are steadily accumulating. If the concentration of chips rises above 15%, it may lead to intensified price fluctuations. With no major economic data this weekend, geopolitical issues are likely to continue dominating the market rhythm, and Bitcoin is expected to continue consolidating within the oscillating range.