Interpretation of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Meeting: Underlying Currents Behind a Calm Market

The signals released by the latest FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve can be described as "the same old tune," maintaining the current interest rate level while still hinting at the possibility of two rate cuts in 2025. This statement is completely within market expectations, bringing neither panic nor surprise. It is noteworthy that the dot plot reflects significant internal divisions among decision-makers: proponents of economic slowdown versus advocates of employment stability.

Recent trends in Bitcoin have shown a high sensitivity. While the U.S. stock market remains stable, BTC has already digested potential negative news in advance and is currently oscillating around $105,000. This sideways pattern conceals two main intentions:

To exchange time for space, balancing long and short position costs

To accumulate energy for subsequent substantial breakthroughs

Technical analysis indicates that the current adjustment is still insufficient; after several weeks of rising, the market urgently needs a more adequate technical correction. It is particularly important to be vigilant about:

Geopolitical risks (Middle East situation)

Liquidity fluctuations (potential wave of liquidations)

Market sentiment shifts (profit-taking pressure)

Once this oscillation balance is broken, the probability of a downward movement is significantly higher than that of an upward movement. #鲍威尔发言