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Analysis on August 2nd: The current market direction is clear.
Bitcoin Analysis:
From yesterday's high of 118, the price plummeted all the way to 128, a single-day plunge of over 6,000 points. The rebound is weak, and bearish momentum remains. Downside risks persist, and the price currently faces strong resistance at 114-115.
If it fails to break through effectively, it may retrace to the 112-108 range.
Avoid blindly bottom-fishing in the short term; wait for signs of stabilization.
In the medium and long term, monitor support around 108. Adjust your strategy if it breaks below.
Ethereum Dynamics:
From a high of around 3860, it quickly reached the key 3400-3500 area (volatility is over 2x that of BTC).
If support at 3400 is lost, the next target is the 3200-2800 range.
Altcoins: Overall performance is weak.
Focus on ETH's performance between 3200 and 2800, and invest in it once it stabilizes.
Currently, the risk of holding on outweighs the opportunity, so preserving your principal is the top priority.
Strictly implement a buy-low-sell-high strategy and avoid passively getting stuck. The market is not short of opportunities, but patience and energy are.
For those who are unsure about the direction of their trades recently, please contact me (click on the avatar) at any time for one-on-one answers to your trading questions! #加密项目 #加密市场回调 #稳定币热潮
Bitcoin Analysis:
From yesterday's high of 118, the price plummeted all the way to 128, a single-day plunge of over 6,000 points. The rebound is weak, and bearish momentum remains. Downside risks persist, and the price currently faces strong resistance at 114-115.
If it fails to break through effectively, it may retrace to the 112-108 range.
Avoid blindly bottom-fishing in the short term; wait for signs of stabilization.
In the medium and long term, monitor support around 108. Adjust your strategy if it breaks below.
Ethereum Dynamics:
From a high of around 3860, it quickly reached the key 3400-3500 area (volatility is over 2x that of BTC).
If support at 3400 is lost, the next target is the 3200-2800 range.
Altcoins: Overall performance is weak.
Focus on ETH's performance between 3200 and 2800, and invest in it once it stabilizes.
Currently, the risk of holding on outweighs the opportunity, so preserving your principal is the top priority.
Strictly implement a buy-low-sell-high strategy and avoid passively getting stuck. The market is not short of opportunities, but patience and energy are.
For those who are unsure about the direction of their trades recently, please contact me (click on the avatar) at any time for one-on-one answers to your trading questions! #加密项目 #加密市场回调 #稳定币热潮
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Altcoins:
Current Market Characteristics: Lagging rebound, early decline. Altcoins often experience a rebound at the end of a bull market, but once the market weakens, their decline is much faster than BTC/ETH.
When a pullback signal appears, it is crucial to exit decisively to avoid being trapped due to hesitation.
Being trapped ≠ waiting to get out
Many who were trapped at high positions by the end of 2023 fantasize about prices returning to previous highs, but the reality is: only strong leading coins may rebound, while most altcoins will experience a prolonged downturn or even go to zero once the trend turns bearish.
Hanging on = passively waiting to die; the market will not change direction because of personal holdings.
The rise pattern of altcoins: In a market cycle, the maximum rise of strong altcoins is usually between 50%-100%, and very few can sustain multiple times increases.
Not escaping the peak = profit giving back or even losses; it is essential to learn to take profits or stop losses when the trend weakens.
If you hold altcoins and have already seen stagnation or broken price declines, immediately reduce your position or liquidate to avoid further losses. Do not fantasize about “selling when it rises a bit more”; the market will not provide you with a perfect exit point.
Patiently wait for lower price levels; the decline of altcoins is often more severe than BTC/ETH, and there will be better bottom-fishing opportunities later.
Blindly bottom-fishing “cheap coins” – many altcoins will never return to previous highs after a decline.
Holding a full position without setting stop-loss – this is the biggest reason for retail losses.
Altcoins are high-risk assets; trading needs to be more cautious than BTC/ETH!
When the trend weakens, staying out and observing is the best strategy; preserving capital allows you to seize the next opportunity.
Learn to take stop losses and profits to avoid turning gains into losses; the market is always full of opportunities, what it lacks is patience and discipline.
Brothers who are unclear about the trading direction recently can (point avatar) reach out to me anytime for communication, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #美国初请失业金人数 #美SEC启动ProjectCrypto计划 #以太坊十周年 #美联储利率决议
Current Market Characteristics: Lagging rebound, early decline. Altcoins often experience a rebound at the end of a bull market, but once the market weakens, their decline is much faster than BTC/ETH.
When a pullback signal appears, it is crucial to exit decisively to avoid being trapped due to hesitation.
Being trapped ≠ waiting to get out
Many who were trapped at high positions by the end of 2023 fantasize about prices returning to previous highs, but the reality is: only strong leading coins may rebound, while most altcoins will experience a prolonged downturn or even go to zero once the trend turns bearish.
Hanging on = passively waiting to die; the market will not change direction because of personal holdings.
The rise pattern of altcoins: In a market cycle, the maximum rise of strong altcoins is usually between 50%-100%, and very few can sustain multiple times increases.
Not escaping the peak = profit giving back or even losses; it is essential to learn to take profits or stop losses when the trend weakens.
If you hold altcoins and have already seen stagnation or broken price declines, immediately reduce your position or liquidate to avoid further losses. Do not fantasize about “selling when it rises a bit more”; the market will not provide you with a perfect exit point.
Patiently wait for lower price levels; the decline of altcoins is often more severe than BTC/ETH, and there will be better bottom-fishing opportunities later.
Blindly bottom-fishing “cheap coins” – many altcoins will never return to previous highs after a decline.
Holding a full position without setting stop-loss – this is the biggest reason for retail losses.
Altcoins are high-risk assets; trading needs to be more cautious than BTC/ETH!
When the trend weakens, staying out and observing is the best strategy; preserving capital allows you to seize the next opportunity.
Learn to take stop losses and profits to avoid turning gains into losses; the market is always full of opportunities, what it lacks is patience and discipline.
Brothers who are unclear about the trading direction recently can (point avatar) reach out to me anytime for communication, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #美国初请失业金人数 #美SEC启动ProjectCrypto计划 #以太坊十周年 #美联储利率决议
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8.1: ETH Market Analysis
Monthly Structure: July closed with a gain of 48.8%, but the upper shadow suggests selling pressure at high levels. Currently, it is in a potential triple top formation, and we need to be cautious of the risk of trend reversal.
Daily Level: Top Signal: Recently, there have been 'three consecutive bearish candles with upper shadows', combined with a break below the moving average support, indicating the exhaustion of bullish momentum. Volume decreased on the way up and increased on the way down, reflecting a decrease in capital participation, consistent with the characteristics of a top consolidation and decline.
Key Support: 3400 (MA30) serves as a dividing line between bulls and bears. If it breaks down, it opens up downward space to the 3200-3000 level.
4-Hour Short-Term: After testing the 3860 resistance twice yesterday, it turned down. There was a brief rebound in the morning, and it may see a slight recovery in the Asian session, but 3730-3760 forms strong resistance.
Trading Strategy: Short at the rebound of 3730-3760, with a stop loss above 3800, targeting 3630→3600.
If it breaks below 3600, you can follow the trend down to the 3500-3400 support zone, paying attention to the strength of bullish defense.
Brothers who are unclear about the direction of trading can feel free to reach out to me (click on the avatar) for one-on-one answers to your trading questions! #美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #稳定币热潮 #以太坊十周年
Monthly Structure: July closed with a gain of 48.8%, but the upper shadow suggests selling pressure at high levels. Currently, it is in a potential triple top formation, and we need to be cautious of the risk of trend reversal.
Daily Level: Top Signal: Recently, there have been 'three consecutive bearish candles with upper shadows', combined with a break below the moving average support, indicating the exhaustion of bullish momentum. Volume decreased on the way up and increased on the way down, reflecting a decrease in capital participation, consistent with the characteristics of a top consolidation and decline.
Key Support: 3400 (MA30) serves as a dividing line between bulls and bears. If it breaks down, it opens up downward space to the 3200-3000 level.
4-Hour Short-Term: After testing the 3860 resistance twice yesterday, it turned down. There was a brief rebound in the morning, and it may see a slight recovery in the Asian session, but 3730-3760 forms strong resistance.
Trading Strategy: Short at the rebound of 3730-3760, with a stop loss above 3800, targeting 3630→3600.
If it breaks below 3600, you can follow the trend down to the 3500-3400 support zone, paying attention to the strength of bullish defense.
Brothers who are unclear about the direction of trading can feel free to reach out to me (click on the avatar) for one-on-one answers to your trading questions! #美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #稳定币热潮 #以太坊十周年
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8.1: In-Depth Analysis of BTC Technicals
BTC Trend Analysis
Monthly Structure: July closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, the length of the shadow is comparable to the body, indicating heavy selling pressure above and insufficient upward momentum. Combining with historical trends, a long upper shadow is often followed by a short-term adjustment, caution is needed for further retest risks.
Daily Level: Key Break: Yesterday's large bearish candle broke below the 30-day moving average and the bottom of the 116K range, confirming short-term bearish dominance. Recent declines have shown increased volume, while rebounds have shown decreasing volume, indicating weak bullish support and active bearish control.
Macroeconomic Impact: The U.S. July PCE data is on the hotter side, reinforcing high interest rate expectations, combined with large on-chain BTC transfers (suspected institutional sell-offs), selling pressure still exists in the short term.
4-Hour Short-Term: After a continuous volume decline, a pin bar rebound occurred, Asian session may see slight recovery, but the 116K-117K zone constitutes strong resistance, and further high shorts can be considered after the rebound.
If it breaks below 114K, then the next support levels to look at are 112K-113K; extreme situations may test the 110K level.
Shorting at resistance 116K-117K, with a stop loss above 118K, targeting 114K→112K.
If it directly breaks below 114K, the target is 112K-113K, pay attention to the risk of a pin bar rebound.
Brothers with unclear trading directions can (click profile picture) reach out to me anytime for communication, I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #加密市场回调
BTC Trend Analysis
Monthly Structure: July closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, the length of the shadow is comparable to the body, indicating heavy selling pressure above and insufficient upward momentum. Combining with historical trends, a long upper shadow is often followed by a short-term adjustment, caution is needed for further retest risks.
Daily Level: Key Break: Yesterday's large bearish candle broke below the 30-day moving average and the bottom of the 116K range, confirming short-term bearish dominance. Recent declines have shown increased volume, while rebounds have shown decreasing volume, indicating weak bullish support and active bearish control.
Macroeconomic Impact: The U.S. July PCE data is on the hotter side, reinforcing high interest rate expectations, combined with large on-chain BTC transfers (suspected institutional sell-offs), selling pressure still exists in the short term.
4-Hour Short-Term: After a continuous volume decline, a pin bar rebound occurred, Asian session may see slight recovery, but the 116K-117K zone constitutes strong resistance, and further high shorts can be considered after the rebound.
If it breaks below 114K, then the next support levels to look at are 112K-113K; extreme situations may test the 110K level.
Shorting at resistance 116K-117K, with a stop loss above 118K, targeting 114K→112K.
If it directly breaks below 114K, the target is 112K-113K, pay attention to the risk of a pin bar rebound.
Brothers with unclear trading directions can (click profile picture) reach out to me anytime for communication, I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #加密市场回调
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Bitcoin (BTC) is under bearish pressure after breaking the daily line. A rebound to 116K-117K is the ideal shorting area, with a focus on the strength of support at 114K below. Under the dual impact of tariffs and new regulations on stablecoins, BTC breaks at 116K, and ETH looks at 3400 support #美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #稳定币热潮
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8.1 Daily Market Analysis: BTC and ETH Key Levels Analysis
BTC Intraday Trend: Current Rebound: BTC has rebounded as expected from the 113-114 range to around 116, but caution is needed as the spike rebound high at 1143 has not been confirmed. The key resistance to watch intraday is the 116-117 range; it may not necessarily reach 117, but caution should be maintained.
The daily chart has opened a downward channel, with the strategy mainly focused on shorting during rebounds, avoiding chasing lows. If it directly breaks below the 114 support, it may test the 112-113 range for a spike rebound, but it is advised to wait for a rebound to resistance levels before placing short orders.
Key Support: 114 is the dividing line for bulls and bears intraday; losing this level will accelerate the test of 112-113; if it rebounds to 116-117 under pressure, it can be seen as a second shorting opportunity.
ETH Intraday Dynamics:
Quick Rebound: ETH has rapidly risen from 3600 to above 3700, but the four-hour level shows significant pressure at 3800, making it difficult to break through in the short term.
Intraday focus should be on the resistance level near 3760.
Support and Risk: The 3520-3560 range is the first support zone; if it breaks below the 3500 level, the market will accelerate its decline to the 3200-3300 range, where a daily level rebound may occur.
Operational Suggestions: The current decline is relatively moderate, but risk should be strictly controlled. Avoid aggressive shorting before effectively breaking below 3500; if it rebounds to 3760-3800 under pressure, short positions can be gradually established.
BTC: Focus on shorting at 116-117; if it breaks below 114, watch for a rebound at 112-113;
ETH: Significant resistance above 3760, with the 3520-3560 support zone determining the downward space. #美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #稳定币热潮
BTC Intraday Trend: Current Rebound: BTC has rebounded as expected from the 113-114 range to around 116, but caution is needed as the spike rebound high at 1143 has not been confirmed. The key resistance to watch intraday is the 116-117 range; it may not necessarily reach 117, but caution should be maintained.
The daily chart has opened a downward channel, with the strategy mainly focused on shorting during rebounds, avoiding chasing lows. If it directly breaks below the 114 support, it may test the 112-113 range for a spike rebound, but it is advised to wait for a rebound to resistance levels before placing short orders.
Key Support: 114 is the dividing line for bulls and bears intraday; losing this level will accelerate the test of 112-113; if it rebounds to 116-117 under pressure, it can be seen as a second shorting opportunity.
ETH Intraday Dynamics:
Quick Rebound: ETH has rapidly risen from 3600 to above 3700, but the four-hour level shows significant pressure at 3800, making it difficult to break through in the short term.
Intraday focus should be on the resistance level near 3760.
Support and Risk: The 3520-3560 range is the first support zone; if it breaks below the 3500 level, the market will accelerate its decline to the 3200-3300 range, where a daily level rebound may occur.
Operational Suggestions: The current decline is relatively moderate, but risk should be strictly controlled. Avoid aggressive shorting before effectively breaking below 3500; if it rebounds to 3760-3800 under pressure, short positions can be gradually established.
BTC: Focus on shorting at 116-117; if it breaks below 114, watch for a rebound at 112-113;
ETH: Significant resistance above 3760, with the 3520-3560 support zone determining the downward space. #美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #稳定币热潮
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Altcoins:
Altcoins, as high-risk assets in the crypto market, are extremely sensitive to macro news and exhibit significant volatility. Current market sentiment is fragile, with prices easily driven by short-term emotions; a single day's plummet can erase several days of gains, creating a strong speculative atmosphere.
Increased regulatory pressure: Many countries are warning about "stablecoin scams," leading to increased policy uncertainty, with altcoins being the most affected.
Macroeconomic pressures: The Federal Reserve's policy oscillates, putting overall pressure on risk assets, and liquidity risk for altcoins sharply increases.
Emotional volatility: Intense capital speculation leads to wild price swings becoming the norm, with poor trend continuity.
Do not blindly bottom-fish: Avoid catching falling knives and be cautious of consecutive halving.
Do not cling to the top: Take profits in a timely manner; a single successful exit at the peak is worth more than ten futile attempts to bottom-fish.
Avoid "zombie coins": Steer clear of coins that have been stagnant for a long time with exhausted trading volume.
Focus on strong structures: Only participate in certain opportunities of "pullback without breaking after launch"; if the risk-reward ratio is below 2:1, then give up.
In extreme market conditions, it is better to miss out than to make a mistake; strict discipline is essential for survival. #白宫数字资产报告 #以太坊十周年 #美联储利率决议 #稳定币热潮
Altcoins, as high-risk assets in the crypto market, are extremely sensitive to macro news and exhibit significant volatility. Current market sentiment is fragile, with prices easily driven by short-term emotions; a single day's plummet can erase several days of gains, creating a strong speculative atmosphere.
Increased regulatory pressure: Many countries are warning about "stablecoin scams," leading to increased policy uncertainty, with altcoins being the most affected.
Macroeconomic pressures: The Federal Reserve's policy oscillates, putting overall pressure on risk assets, and liquidity risk for altcoins sharply increases.
Emotional volatility: Intense capital speculation leads to wild price swings becoming the norm, with poor trend continuity.
Do not blindly bottom-fish: Avoid catching falling knives and be cautious of consecutive halving.
Do not cling to the top: Take profits in a timely manner; a single successful exit at the peak is worth more than ten futile attempts to bottom-fish.
Avoid "zombie coins": Steer clear of coins that have been stagnant for a long time with exhausted trading volume.
Focus on strong structures: Only participate in certain opportunities of "pullback without breaking after launch"; if the risk-reward ratio is below 2:1, then give up.
In extreme market conditions, it is better to miss out than to make a mistake; strict discipline is essential for survival. #白宫数字资产报告 #以太坊十周年 #美联储利率决议 #稳定币热潮
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ETH Technical Analysis on July 31:
Daily Trend: The moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, the structure is healthy, and there has been no deep correction in the past month, indicating strong bullish control.
Recently, the volume has shown characteristics of shrinking increases and expanding adjustments, suggesting that the upward momentum is weakening, and some profit-taking pressures are emerging.
Yesterday, after a pullback to the 14-day moving average, a long lower shadow candlestick was formed, and it has currently regained the 7-day moving average. The monthly line is about to close with a 55% increase, but caution is needed for the pullback risks triggered by a triple top pattern.
The 4-hour level rebound is approaching the previous high, and there are signs of stagnation on the 1-hour, so caution is warranted regarding pullback pressure.
Intraday Strategy: The upper pressure zone is 3880-3920, if met with resistance, consider a short position;
The lower support is 3780-3740, if it stabilizes after a pullback, then consider opening long positions.
The volatility on the last day of the month may increase, so it is necessary to strictly control position risk.
Brothers who are uncertain about the direction of trading recently can (click the avatar) reach out to me anytime for communication, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #白宫数字资产报告 #美联储利率决议 #稳定币热潮
Daily Trend: The moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, the structure is healthy, and there has been no deep correction in the past month, indicating strong bullish control.
Recently, the volume has shown characteristics of shrinking increases and expanding adjustments, suggesting that the upward momentum is weakening, and some profit-taking pressures are emerging.
Yesterday, after a pullback to the 14-day moving average, a long lower shadow candlestick was formed, and it has currently regained the 7-day moving average. The monthly line is about to close with a 55% increase, but caution is needed for the pullback risks triggered by a triple top pattern.
The 4-hour level rebound is approaching the previous high, and there are signs of stagnation on the 1-hour, so caution is warranted regarding pullback pressure.
Intraday Strategy: The upper pressure zone is 3880-3920, if met with resistance, consider a short position;
The lower support is 3780-3740, if it stabilizes after a pullback, then consider opening long positions.
The volatility on the last day of the month may increase, so it is necessary to strictly control position risk.
Brothers who are uncertain about the direction of trading recently can (click the avatar) reach out to me anytime for communication, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #白宫数字资产报告 #美联储利率决议 #稳定币热潮
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July 31 BTC Technical Analysis:
The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, without providing clear guidance on a potential rate cut in September, which has led to a short-term strengthening of the US dollar index, delaying the market's expectations for rate cuts. High-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) have responded by retreating.
Bitcoin briefly dropped below the critical support level of 116K, but then rebounded due to remarks easing Trump's tariff policies, leading to a collective rebound in risk assets, with the daily chart showing a long lower shadow, indicating strong buying support below.
Daily Structure: Currently, it still maintains a high-level box consolidation pattern, with strong resistance at 120K above and key support at 116K below (which coincides with the upward-moving 30-day moving average).
The K-line has repaired the gap with the 30-day moving average, and the high-level consolidation period is nearing its end, with the market facing a directional choice.
Trading volume continues to shrink, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment among off-market funds, and we need to wait for a breakout signal to confirm the trend.
4-Hour Level: After a volume surge that dipped to 116K in the early morning, there was a quick rebound, forming two consecutive bullish candles; however, the volume did not effectively support this rebound, raising doubts about its sustainability.
Intraday Strategy: Pay attention to the resistance zone of 119K-120K above; if under pressure, consider short positions;
Focus on the support zone of 117K-116K below; if it stabilizes, look to position long.
Brothers who are unclear about recent trading directions can always reach out to me (point icon) for one-on-one answers to your operational questions! #白宫数字资产报告 #美联储利率决议 #稳定币热潮
The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, without providing clear guidance on a potential rate cut in September, which has led to a short-term strengthening of the US dollar index, delaying the market's expectations for rate cuts. High-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) have responded by retreating.
Bitcoin briefly dropped below the critical support level of 116K, but then rebounded due to remarks easing Trump's tariff policies, leading to a collective rebound in risk assets, with the daily chart showing a long lower shadow, indicating strong buying support below.
Daily Structure: Currently, it still maintains a high-level box consolidation pattern, with strong resistance at 120K above and key support at 116K below (which coincides with the upward-moving 30-day moving average).
The K-line has repaired the gap with the 30-day moving average, and the high-level consolidation period is nearing its end, with the market facing a directional choice.
Trading volume continues to shrink, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment among off-market funds, and we need to wait for a breakout signal to confirm the trend.
4-Hour Level: After a volume surge that dipped to 116K in the early morning, there was a quick rebound, forming two consecutive bullish candles; however, the volume did not effectively support this rebound, raising doubts about its sustainability.
Intraday Strategy: Pay attention to the resistance zone of 119K-120K above; if under pressure, consider short positions;
Focus on the support zone of 117K-116K below; if it stabilizes, look to position long.
Brothers who are unclear about recent trading directions can always reach out to me (point icon) for one-on-one answers to your operational questions! #白宫数字资产报告 #美联储利率决议 #稳定币热潮
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This week's major turning point in the market!
The U.S. will intensively release several key economic indicators: Core PCE Price Index, Non-Farm Payroll data, unemployment rate, and more are coming in succession, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday. This meeting could become a watershed moment determining the policy tone for the second half of the year, and Powell's speech may completely overturn market expectations, with all funds waiting for the signal to appear.
Current market: Is it a continuation of the altcoin wave three rally? Or is it entering a deep correction and repair? #以太坊十周年 #美联储利率决议 #美国与欧盟达成关税协议
The U.S. will intensively release several key economic indicators: Core PCE Price Index, Non-Farm Payroll data, unemployment rate, and more are coming in succession, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday. This meeting could become a watershed moment determining the policy tone for the second half of the year, and Powell's speech may completely overturn market expectations, with all funds waiting for the signal to appear.
Current market: Is it a continuation of the altcoin wave three rally? Or is it entering a deep correction and repair? #以太坊十周年 #美联储利率决议 #美国与欧盟达成关税协议
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July 30: Analysis of Key Levels for ETH
Four-Hour Level: After a rebound, consecutive bearish candles followed, with a slight rebound after testing support at 3,720 in the early morning.
Key Resistance: Focus on the 3,820-3,880 range; if unable to break through, a pullback may occur again.
Support Range: If the four-hour level turns bearish, ETH may retest support at 3,600-3,660; if it breaks down, pay attention to the key defense level at 3,500-3,600.
ETH: If it rebounds to 3,820-3,880 and faces pressure, consider shorting; if it breaks below 3,720, then look for 3,600-3,660.
Linkage Risk: If BTC breaks below 11,600, be cautious of ETH following a decline.
Brothers who are uncertain about trading direction recently can (click the avatar) reach out to me anytime for communication, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #以太坊十周年 #币安HODLer空投TREE #美国与欧盟达成关税协议
Four-Hour Level: After a rebound, consecutive bearish candles followed, with a slight rebound after testing support at 3,720 in the early morning.
Key Resistance: Focus on the 3,820-3,880 range; if unable to break through, a pullback may occur again.
Support Range: If the four-hour level turns bearish, ETH may retest support at 3,600-3,660; if it breaks down, pay attention to the key defense level at 3,500-3,600.
ETH: If it rebounds to 3,820-3,880 and faces pressure, consider shorting; if it breaks below 3,720, then look for 3,600-3,660.
Linkage Risk: If BTC breaks below 11,600, be cautious of ETH following a decline.
Brothers who are uncertain about trading direction recently can (click the avatar) reach out to me anytime for communication, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #以太坊十周年 #币安HODLer空投TREE #美国与欧盟达成关税协议
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July 30: BTC Key Level Analysis
BTC Trend Analysis
Early Morning Trend: BTC did not show a significant decline, with a slight rebound, but overall still under pressure.
Key Resistance: Focus on the range of 11,8500-11,9500 during the day. If it cannot break through, maintain a high short view.
Support Range: Short-term focus on the support at 11,5500-11,6500. If the rebound is weak and falls below 11,6000, it may further test 11,3000-11,4000.
Key Observation Points: If today closes with a bearish candle and the body breaks below 11,6000, it may accelerate the pullback to the range of 11,300-11,400 in the short term.
Brothers who are unclear about the trading direction recently can (point icon) reach out to me anytime for discussion, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one!
BTC Trend Analysis
Early Morning Trend: BTC did not show a significant decline, with a slight rebound, but overall still under pressure.
Key Resistance: Focus on the range of 11,8500-11,9500 during the day. If it cannot break through, maintain a high short view.
Support Range: Short-term focus on the support at 11,5500-11,6500. If the rebound is weak and falls below 11,6000, it may further test 11,3000-11,4000.
Key Observation Points: If today closes with a bearish candle and the body breaks below 11,6000, it may accelerate the pullback to the range of 11,300-11,400 in the short term.
Brothers who are unclear about the trading direction recently can (point icon) reach out to me anytime for discussion, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one!
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This week, the global financial markets are迎来关键转折点！
The United States is about to release a series of impactful data that could shake the market: core PCE price index, unemployment rate, and non-farm payroll report will be released in succession, combined with the peak of the US stock earnings season. Furthermore, the release of the White House's digital asset report on Thursday may trigger a huge shock in the cryptocurrency market.
The market is particularly focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday—this will be a key moment to determine the direction of monetary policy for the second half of the year.
Chairman Powell's speech could completely change market expectations, and investors are holding their breath for signals of a policy shift.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is turbulent: the sudden sell-off by the Ethereum Foundation contrasts sharply with the tenth anniversary conference, while Bitcoin continues to hover at high levels, and the battle between bulls and bears is reaching a fever pitch.
The current market is at a crossroads: will it continue the third wave of altcoin rally, or will it start a deep correction in the fourth wave?
All answers will be revealed in the next 96 hours. Buckle up, this could be the most explosive week of 2025!
Brothers who are unclear about trading directions recently can (click my avatar) reach out to me anytime for communication, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #以太坊十周年 #币安HODLer空投TREE #美国与欧盟达成关税协议
The United States is about to release a series of impactful data that could shake the market: core PCE price index, unemployment rate, and non-farm payroll report will be released in succession, combined with the peak of the US stock earnings season. Furthermore, the release of the White House's digital asset report on Thursday may trigger a huge shock in the cryptocurrency market.
The market is particularly focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday—this will be a key moment to determine the direction of monetary policy for the second half of the year.
Chairman Powell's speech could completely change market expectations, and investors are holding their breath for signals of a policy shift.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is turbulent: the sudden sell-off by the Ethereum Foundation contrasts sharply with the tenth anniversary conference, while Bitcoin continues to hover at high levels, and the battle between bulls and bears is reaching a fever pitch.
The current market is at a crossroads: will it continue the third wave of altcoin rally, or will it start a deep correction in the fourth wave?
All answers will be revealed in the next 96 hours. Buckle up, this could be the most explosive week of 2025!
Brothers who are unclear about trading directions recently can (click my avatar) reach out to me anytime for communication, and I will answer your operational questions one-on-one! #以太坊十周年 #币安HODLer空投TREE #美国与欧盟达成关税协议
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7.29 Technical Analysis:
BTC's market behavior yesterday accurately validated the research report's forecast, with effective resistance at 119.5K (peaking at 119.8K before retreating) and precise support at 117.5K holding firm in the early morning. Overall, the market has maintained a range-bound fluctuation between 120K and 116K. Currently, the market exhibits three key characteristics:
Decreased trading volume: Light trading activity and a strong sense of caution among investors, necessitating vigilance against the risk of a false breakout at 120K.
The daily chart has repeatedly tested 120K before retreating, with notable selling pressure; however, the support at 116K has been consistently defended, indicating strong bullish defense.
The prolonged period of sideways movement suggests that if the daily chart continues to close below the moving average from July 14 (with the current moving average support invalidated), caution is warranted against a 'failed breakout' scenario.
Key Support Strategy:
Short Opportunities: If resistance is encountered in the 119500—120500 range, consider shorting, but stop loss if there is a volume breakout above 121K;
Bullish Defense Line: 116K serves as a short-term dividing line between strength and weakness; a drop below 115K will trigger a bearish trend.
ETH Technical Analysis:
Yesterday's market behavior accurately validated the research report's forecast, with significant resistance at 3930 USD (actually peaking at 3940 USD) leading to a notable pullback, as prices phased through the 3850-3800 USD support zone. The current technical pattern shows key characteristics:
Daily Level: The early session tested the MA7 moving average support at 3740 and then quickly rebounded, indicating that short-term bulls still possess resistance momentum.
The MACD indicator shows signs of a potential top divergence, necessitating caution against trend reversal risks.
Key Price Ranges: Upper resistance zone: 3870-3940 USD
Core support zone: 3780-3720 USD (converging zone of daily MA7 and previous lows)
Trading Strategy Recommendations:
Short Opportunities: If prices rebound to the 3870-3940 resistance zone and show signs of stagnation, consider lightly positioning for a short trade, but a strict stop loss is required if there is a valid breakout above 3940 USD.
BTC's market behavior yesterday accurately validated the research report's forecast, with effective resistance at 119.5K (peaking at 119.8K before retreating) and precise support at 117.5K holding firm in the early morning. Overall, the market has maintained a range-bound fluctuation between 120K and 116K. Currently, the market exhibits three key characteristics:
Decreased trading volume: Light trading activity and a strong sense of caution among investors, necessitating vigilance against the risk of a false breakout at 120K.
The daily chart has repeatedly tested 120K before retreating, with notable selling pressure; however, the support at 116K has been consistently defended, indicating strong bullish defense.
The prolonged period of sideways movement suggests that if the daily chart continues to close below the moving average from July 14 (with the current moving average support invalidated), caution is warranted against a 'failed breakout' scenario.
Key Support Strategy:
Short Opportunities: If resistance is encountered in the 119500—120500 range, consider shorting, but stop loss if there is a volume breakout above 121K;
Bullish Defense Line: 116K serves as a short-term dividing line between strength and weakness; a drop below 115K will trigger a bearish trend.
ETH Technical Analysis:
Yesterday's market behavior accurately validated the research report's forecast, with significant resistance at 3930 USD (actually peaking at 3940 USD) leading to a notable pullback, as prices phased through the 3850-3800 USD support zone. The current technical pattern shows key characteristics:
Daily Level: The early session tested the MA7 moving average support at 3740 and then quickly rebounded, indicating that short-term bulls still possess resistance momentum.
The MACD indicator shows signs of a potential top divergence, necessitating caution against trend reversal risks.
Key Price Ranges: Upper resistance zone: 3870-3940 USD
Core support zone: 3780-3720 USD (converging zone of daily MA7 and previous lows)
Trading Strategy Recommendations:
Short Opportunities: If prices rebound to the 3870-3940 resistance zone and show signs of stagnation, consider lightly positioning for a short trade, but a strict stop loss is required if there is a valid breakout above 3940 USD.
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ETH Technical Analysis:
Market Sentiment Positive Factors: The Ethereum 10th Anniversary event (July 30) may stimulate on-chain activity. The total amount staked remains high, indicating that the market still recognizes the medium to long-term logic.
Negative Factors: Over $2.5 billion worth of ETH is queued to exit staking, and short-term supply pressure may lead to selling pressure. The willingness to stake new assets has weakened, and market sentiment is becoming cautious. On-chain gas fees have not significantly increased, and NFT trading volume has not shown notable growth.
Technical Trend: A rise of 180% in the past 3 months, in a strong upward trend, but recent high-level fluctuations with substantial trading volume have weakened upward momentum.
Key Turning Points: If it breaks through $4,000 with volume, it may short-term challenge $4,500. If positive news leads to a pullback or BTC weakens, falling below $3,750 may indicate a transition to a correction phase.
4-Hour Level: Currently showing steady upward movement, with good volume-price coordination, which is a healthy trend.
Short-term Support: $3,850-$3,800 (falling below will turn weak).
Short-term Resistance: $3,930-$3,980.
Operational Suggestions: If it rises to around $4,000 and faces resistance, consider shorting, with a stop loss at $4,050 and a target of $3,850-$3,750.
If it falls below $3,750, it may pull back to the $3,500-$3,600 support area, where one can wait for a buying opportunity. #ETH重返3800
Market Sentiment Positive Factors: The Ethereum 10th Anniversary event (July 30) may stimulate on-chain activity. The total amount staked remains high, indicating that the market still recognizes the medium to long-term logic.
Negative Factors: Over $2.5 billion worth of ETH is queued to exit staking, and short-term supply pressure may lead to selling pressure. The willingness to stake new assets has weakened, and market sentiment is becoming cautious. On-chain gas fees have not significantly increased, and NFT trading volume has not shown notable growth.
Technical Trend: A rise of 180% in the past 3 months, in a strong upward trend, but recent high-level fluctuations with substantial trading volume have weakened upward momentum.
Key Turning Points: If it breaks through $4,000 with volume, it may short-term challenge $4,500. If positive news leads to a pullback or BTC weakens, falling below $3,750 may indicate a transition to a correction phase.
4-Hour Level: Currently showing steady upward movement, with good volume-price coordination, which is a healthy trend.
Short-term Support: $3,850-$3,800 (falling below will turn weak).
Short-term Resistance: $3,930-$3,980.
Operational Suggestions: If it rises to around $4,000 and faces resistance, consider shorting, with a stop loss at $4,050 and a target of $3,850-$3,750.
If it falls below $3,750, it may pull back to the $3,500-$3,600 support area, where one can wait for a buying opportunity. #ETH重返3800
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BTC Technical Analysis
Weekly Level: Currently in a consolidation phase during an upward process. The trading volume in the past two weeks has increased compared to the previous rise, and we need to be cautious of the risk of a trend reversal at high levels. If it cannot break through the consolidation range, a directional choice may occur, and changes in volume need to be closely monitored.
Daily Level: Range Consolidation: Still in the $12,000 - $11,600 box consolidation. Trading volume has noticeably shrunk in the last 3 days, and upward momentum is weakening. Key Signal: On July 25, a long lower shadow with increased volume appeared, indicating profit-taking at high levels but not forming a continuous decline.
Key Reversal Point: If it stabilizes above $12,000 with increased volume, it may initiate a new round of upward movement and challenge previous highs. If it breaks below MA30 ($11,480), it may temporarily test the support at $10,780. If there is still no significant upward breakthrough in the next two days, we need to be cautious of downside risks.
4-Hour Level: Short-term Pressure: $11,950 - $12,050. If it fails to rise and falls back, it may test the support below.
Key Support Below: $11,800 - $11,750 (if it breaks, watch for $11,600 support)
Operational Suggestions: In the short term, look for consolidation. If it rebounds to $11,950 - $12,050 and faces pressure, consider light short positions with a stop-loss at $12,100 and a target of $11,700 - $11,600. If it breaks below $11,750, pay attention to the support situation at $11,600, as breaking this level may accelerate the downward movement. #山寨季來了？
Weekly Level: Currently in a consolidation phase during an upward process. The trading volume in the past two weeks has increased compared to the previous rise, and we need to be cautious of the risk of a trend reversal at high levels. If it cannot break through the consolidation range, a directional choice may occur, and changes in volume need to be closely monitored.
Daily Level: Range Consolidation: Still in the $12,000 - $11,600 box consolidation. Trading volume has noticeably shrunk in the last 3 days, and upward momentum is weakening. Key Signal: On July 25, a long lower shadow with increased volume appeared, indicating profit-taking at high levels but not forming a continuous decline.
Key Reversal Point: If it stabilizes above $12,000 with increased volume, it may initiate a new round of upward movement and challenge previous highs. If it breaks below MA30 ($11,480), it may temporarily test the support at $10,780. If there is still no significant upward breakthrough in the next two days, we need to be cautious of downside risks.
4-Hour Level: Short-term Pressure: $11,950 - $12,050. If it fails to rise and falls back, it may test the support below.
Key Support Below: $11,800 - $11,750 (if it breaks, watch for $11,600 support)
Operational Suggestions: In the short term, look for consolidation. If it rebounds to $11,950 - $12,050 and faces pressure, consider light short positions with a stop-loss at $12,100 and a target of $11,700 - $11,600. If it breaks below $11,750, pay attention to the support situation at $11,600, as breaking this level may accelerate the downward movement. #山寨季來了？
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BTC Technical Analysis:
The daily chart shows a second downturn trend, with the current key support level focused on the 116 price range. It is crucial to pay close attention to the effective breakthrough of this support level; only a substantial breakdown can confirm a trend reversal.
The four-hour cycle displays a sequence of consecutive bearish candles, with the latest showing an expanded bearish candle pattern. In this trading session, close observation of the 116 level's defense and attack situation is necessary. If it effectively breaks down, the intraday rebound momentum will significantly weaken; conversely, if it continues to receive support, one should be wary of the market constructing a rebound structure in the 118-119 resistance range before further declines.
ETH Market Performance
Compared to BTC, ETH has shown stronger resistance to decline. Yesterday, after testing the 3600 support area, the market rebounded quickly, with the 3500 level forming an important intraday support. Notably, the price retreated to 3500 after touching the 3660 resistance and then surged strongly to a high of 3770. The current technical indicators show that 3600 remains a critical watershed level on the daily chart.
Intraday trading should focus on the defense situation of the 3560-3600 support zone. If BTC effectively breaks the 116 support, one should be cautious of ETH following suit and breaking below the 3500 round number. The four-hour resistance range is located between 3660-3720, and whether the daily close can hold above 3600 will be an important barometer for the medium-term trend.
Altcoins:
The recent sharp pullback in altcoins does not constitute a buying signal; the current market liquidity risk still needs to be monitored. It is particularly important to emphasize that during trading, one must not only seize buying opportunities but also establish a comprehensive exit mechanism.
Most market participants often focus only on entry strategies, while scientific position management and profit and loss strategies are the key factors for sustained profitability. #以太坊交易量反超比特币
The daily chart shows a second downturn trend, with the current key support level focused on the 116 price range. It is crucial to pay close attention to the effective breakthrough of this support level; only a substantial breakdown can confirm a trend reversal.
The four-hour cycle displays a sequence of consecutive bearish candles, with the latest showing an expanded bearish candle pattern. In this trading session, close observation of the 116 level's defense and attack situation is necessary. If it effectively breaks down, the intraday rebound momentum will significantly weaken; conversely, if it continues to receive support, one should be wary of the market constructing a rebound structure in the 118-119 resistance range before further declines.
ETH Market Performance
Compared to BTC, ETH has shown stronger resistance to decline. Yesterday, after testing the 3600 support area, the market rebounded quickly, with the 3500 level forming an important intraday support. Notably, the price retreated to 3500 after touching the 3660 resistance and then surged strongly to a high of 3770. The current technical indicators show that 3600 remains a critical watershed level on the daily chart.
Intraday trading should focus on the defense situation of the 3560-3600 support zone. If BTC effectively breaks the 116 support, one should be cautious of ETH following suit and breaking below the 3500 round number. The four-hour resistance range is located between 3660-3720, and whether the daily close can hold above 3600 will be an important barometer for the medium-term trend.
Altcoins:
The recent sharp pullback in altcoins does not constitute a buying signal; the current market liquidity risk still needs to be monitored. It is particularly important to emphasize that during trading, one must not only seize buying opportunities but also establish a comprehensive exit mechanism.
Most market participants often focus only on entry strategies, while scientific position management and profit and loss strategies are the key factors for sustained profitability. #以太坊交易量反超比特币
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Altcoins:
In the near future (from the end of the month to the beginning of the next), it is crucial to remain highly vigilant against the risk of selling pressure from high-value unlocking tokens. Some projects are facing cliff-like unlocking, which could trigger a concentration of arbitrage funds leading to a sharp price drop.
Net inflow to exchanges increases: Data from several mainstream exchanges shows a significant rise in the amount of altcoins being transferred in recently, reflecting that investors are depositing tokens into exchanges, with an increased willingness to sell.
On-chain activity declines: The number of interacting wallets is decreasing, market enthusiasm is waning, especially for small-cap coins that saw significant increases earlier, resulting in a rapid exit of short-term funds, and some wallets have very short lifespans, lacking real user support.
Short selling pressure is significant: Some coins quickly face profit-taking after rising, with short-term speculative behavior dominating the market, raising doubts about sustainability.
The current market environment has high uncertainty, and it is recommended to maintain a flat position and observe, avoiding blind entry. The core goal of trading is to achieve steady profits, not frequent operations. When there are no clear opportunities, patiently waiting is the best strategy.
Strictly adhere to discipline: Be brave in staying flat, skilled in maintaining a flat position, and happy to be flat, avoiding rash entries due to FOMO (fear of missing out).
Beware of high-volatility coins, especially projects with large unlocking volumes recently, to prevent flash crashes caused by liquidity crises.
Wait for opportunities: During market adjustment phases, cash is king; wait for trends to clarify before positioning.
Currently, the risks in the altcoin market outweigh the opportunities, so proceed cautiously—better to miss out than to make a mistake! #RWA热潮
In the near future (from the end of the month to the beginning of the next), it is crucial to remain highly vigilant against the risk of selling pressure from high-value unlocking tokens. Some projects are facing cliff-like unlocking, which could trigger a concentration of arbitrage funds leading to a sharp price drop.
Net inflow to exchanges increases: Data from several mainstream exchanges shows a significant rise in the amount of altcoins being transferred in recently, reflecting that investors are depositing tokens into exchanges, with an increased willingness to sell.
On-chain activity declines: The number of interacting wallets is decreasing, market enthusiasm is waning, especially for small-cap coins that saw significant increases earlier, resulting in a rapid exit of short-term funds, and some wallets have very short lifespans, lacking real user support.
Short selling pressure is significant: Some coins quickly face profit-taking after rising, with short-term speculative behavior dominating the market, raising doubts about sustainability.
The current market environment has high uncertainty, and it is recommended to maintain a flat position and observe, avoiding blind entry. The core goal of trading is to achieve steady profits, not frequent operations. When there are no clear opportunities, patiently waiting is the best strategy.
Strictly adhere to discipline: Be brave in staying flat, skilled in maintaining a flat position, and happy to be flat, avoiding rash entries due to FOMO (fear of missing out).
Beware of high-volatility coins, especially projects with large unlocking volumes recently, to prevent flash crashes caused by liquidity crises.
Wait for opportunities: During market adjustment phases, cash is king; wait for trends to clarify before positioning.
Currently, the risks in the altcoin market outweigh the opportunities, so proceed cautiously—better to miss out than to make a mistake! #RWA热潮
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