Crypto长空

6.18 Morning Market Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) Trend Review:
The daily chart yesterday showed a high and then a pullback pattern, closing with a long upper shadow, indicating to pay close attention to the resistance zone of 1070-1080. The intraday trend is in line with expectations. Currently, the daily chart shows a solid bearish candle, breaking below the moving average support level, and after a slight rebound following a revisit to the recent low near 103. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles; although there is no significant increase in volume for the decline, there is still downward risk after a short-term rebound.
Morning Trading Suggestions:
Upper Resistance Zone: 1053-1063, consider opening short positions on rebounds.
Lower Support Zone: 1025-1015, need to monitor if it can stabilize.
Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis:
Morning alert indicated 2630-2660 as the key resistance area, with a maximum intraday rebound to around 2620 before starting the decline, with a cumulative drop of over 140 points. The daily chart yesterday closed with a long upper shadow bearish candle, releasing a bearish signal, and today continues the downward trend, touching the recent low of around 2480, temporarily finding support. The 4-hour chart also shows four consecutive bearish candles, with no significant increase in volume, but there is still room for a downward move after the rebound.
Trading Strategy:
Upper Resistance Zone: 2530-2560, suggested to short after the rebound faces resistance.
Lower Support Zone: 2460-2430, need to observe the breakout situation.

Bitcoin Faces a Critical Choice: All Eyes on It at 2 AM Thursday! Bitcoin Stands at a Crossroads: 100,000 Abyss or 110,000 Peak?

6.17 ETH Market Depth Analysis and Trading Strategy

【Market Review】
ETH experienced a "roller coaster" market in the early morning, first soaring to 2680 before quickly retreating, dropping to a low of 2520, nearly erasing all of yesterday's gains. This "needle-shaped" upward and downward movement fully exposes the current market's fragility.

【Key Level Analysis】

Support Levels Downward Adjustment:

The primary intraday support is at 2450 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)

Strong support area 2400-2420 (previous low + 50-day moving average overlap)

Resistance Levels Adjustment:

Short-term rebound resistance at 2660 (yesterday's high coinciding with the upper Bollinger Band)

Key pressure level at 2700 (psychological barrier + previous high position)

【Intraday Trading Strategy】
▶ Short Position Layout Plan:

Aggressive traders can gradually build positions in the 2630-2660 range

Conservative traders should wait for a rebound to around 2680 before entering

Target levels successively downward at 2550 → 2450

6.17 Market Insight BTC

The market will not rise due to your anxiety, nor will it fall due to your despair. True winners never cling to predicting the market, but instead focus on how to respond to market changes.

Impact of Sudden Events
In the early hours, BTC fell in response to comments from Chuan*. Whether it's short-term fluctuations or long-term trends, vigilance is necessary to guard against a deterioration in market sentiment that could trigger panic selling.

Historical Experience Review
In 2020, the crypto market experienced two significant shocks, with BTC once dropping to a low of 3620. Five years later, although the price has surpassed 100,000, the principle of "high places are cold" still reminds us: during periods of significant news, we must remain alert to market reversal signals and reasonably plan our exit timing.

The primary support area below is in the range of 105,000-106,000.

The short-term resistance level above to focus on is the 108,000 mark.

Looking down at the 102,000 support area.

#加密市场反弹

Market Trend Analysis Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Weekly Level: Last week surged and then fell back, closing with a long upper shadow bearish candle. This week, the opening price fell below the 7-day moving average for the first time in two and a half months, indicating short-term adjustment pressure.
Macroeconomic Factors: Recently, U.S. Treasury maturities theoretically benefit non-U.S. assets, but due to geopolitical conflicts, some funds may flow into the U.S. dollar or gold, weakening market optimism.
Daily Level: Influenced by geopolitical situations, the price quickly dropped to around $10,300, entering a phase of adjustment. Recently, after multiple tests of the $10,600 resistance, it fell back to $10,400, indicating strong resistance above.
Key Levels:
Resistance Range: $10,650 - $10,750 (difficult to break through)
Support Range: $10,450 - $10,350 (if broken, may further retrace)
Short-Term Trend: The 4-hour level showed a slight rebound in the morning, but with insufficient volume, upward space is limited. The market has a strong fear of heights, lacking new funds to drive prices, making sustained upward trends difficult in the short term.

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis
Weekly Level: Last week surged and then fell back, closing with a long upper shadow small bullish candle, still firmly supported by moving averages, overall trend remains intact, but the market environment restricts upward momentum.
Daily Level: Four consecutive days of bearish closes, but the $2,480 - $2,500 range support remains effective, stabilizing in the short term. Trading volume has shrunk, and market sentiment is cautious.
4-Hour Level: After a double bottom in the morning, there was a slight rebound, but momentum is insufficient, and the rebound space is expected to be limited.
Key Levels:
Resistance Range: $2,600 - $2,630 (requires volume to support a breakthrough)
Support Range: $2,500 - $2,530 (if broken, may test lower support)
Operational Strategy
BTC: Maintain a range-bound adjustment approach in the short term, focusing on the $10,450 - $10,750 range, with a breakthrough of previous highs needing new funds to drive it.
ETH: If the $2,500 support holds, observe the strength of the rebound, but remain cautious of overall market sentiment. #加密市场反弹

BTC Dominates, Altcoins Await Their Opportunity—An Insight into the Nature of Market Divergence
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is the undisputed main character in the market, while altcoins are generally in a state of buildup.
This divergence does not mean altcoins are hopeless; rather, it is a typical rhythm at the beginning of a bull market:
Pattern Evolution: BTC's Main Surge Established → ETH Follows Up → Altcoin Rotation Explodes.
Given that we are at the turning point of a tightening cycle, liquidity remains highly concentrated in leading assets. A collective rally in altcoins must wait for:
Monetary policy to shift towards easing (necessary condition);
A comprehensive warming of market risk sentiment (sufficient condition).
The time has not yet come, and position management is crucial:
Avoid chasing highs during the accumulation period;
Do not sell off before the launch. #以色列伊朗冲突 #Metaplanet增持比特币

Weekend Market Analysis: BTC Trend
Currently, BTC is experiencing significant resistance around $106,000 and has pulled back. The four-hour rebound pattern is similar to last Friday's trend, but it is expected that the upward momentum in this round will weaken.
The key resistance range remains at $106,000-$107,000. If it cannot effectively break through, short-term attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback.
The first support level below is in the $102,000-$103,000 range. If the psychological level of $100,000 is further breached, the market may accelerate its decline towards the target range of $92,000-$96,000.

ETH Independent Market Needs Caution
Recently, ETH's trend has diverged from BTC, with more significant volatility. After a spike to $2,450 yesterday, it rebounded. If it effectively breaks below this level, the downward target will look towards the $2,260-$2,320 range.
Intraday short-term support is focused on $2,400-$2,450, with resistance above at $2,560-$2,600, forming a synchronized pressure zone with BTC's $106,000-$107,000 resistance.

Operation Suggestions
BTC: If pressured in the $106,000-$107,000 range, consider shorting, with a stop loss set above $107,500;
ETH: Follow up on shorts after breaking below $2,450, with a target below $2,300. Be cautious of false breakouts if it rebounds above $2,560.

Bitcoin Medium to Long-term Trading Strategy (Conservative Layout)
Initial Positioning: Short at current price of $105,000 (1% position)
Supplementary Positioning Strategy: If the price rebounds to $110,000, add another 1% position
Profit Targets:
First Target: $100,000 (First round profit-taking point)
Second Target: $95,000 (Trend continuation target)
Operational Logic Explanation:
Current price is at a key resistance area
There is strong resistance at $110,000 above
MACD daily level shows a top divergence signal
Market liquidity is showing a contraction trend
(This strategy is suitable for a holding period of 3-6 weeks)
Brothers who enjoy playing and communicating
Feel free to reach out to me anytime for one-on-one answers to your trading questions! #加密市场回调

Altcoins: Market Analysis (Risk Warning and Opportunity Outlook)
Short-term risks intensifying
In the macro environment of escalating geopolitical conflicts, the altcoin market has experienced systematic selling. As a high-risk asset class, its decline significantly exceeds that of mainstream cryptocurrencies, highlighting a sharp increase in market risk aversion.
In the past 24 hours, there has been a notable downward trend, especially with previously popular MEME coins, L2 scaling, and AI concept sectors experiencing a dramatic collapse from high levels. This indicates that funds are fleeing from risk assets to mainstream cryptocurrencies or shifting to a holding and wait-and-see strategy.

Key observation points: If Bitcoin falls below $103,000 and Ethereum drops below the critical level of $2,480, the altcoin market may face accelerated downward risks.
Currently, there are two major signals to be cautious about: there are no signs of new funds entering stablecoins. The market fear index has yet to show signs of stabilization.
Recommended strategy: Maintain a cash position and wait in the short term to avoid volatility risks.
Mid-term potential opportunities: The window for U.S. Treasury bond expirations in late June may become a turning point for the market. If the following conditions occur, it may trigger a rebound: Ethereum's price stabilizes first, and leading public chains (such as SOL/AVAX) or top L2 projects (such as ARB/OP) start to lead the charge.

At that time, some selected targets may show explosive short-term opportunities, and it is necessary to closely monitor the flow of funds and resonance signals from technical analysis.

Today's BTC Trend Analysis
Bitcoin price has once again fallen back to the $103,000 - $104,000 range. After testing the $106,000 - $107,000 support level for the first time yesterday and experiencing a slight rebound, it quickly broke below this level in the early morning, forming a downward trend.
Although the current decline has not reached the expected intensity (it should have already fallen below $100,000 according to normal fluctuations), attention must be paid to the support effect in the $98,000 - $102,000 range.
If it continues to break down, the next key support band will move down to the $92,000 - $96,000 range (refer to the detailed technical framework in the pinned post).

ETH Market Performance:
Ethereum's intraday decline has significantly expanded to 10%, with the current price nearing the previous support level of $2,450.
On the four-hour level, we need to observe the suppression situation in the $2,500 - $2,550 resistance zone. If the rebound is weak, it may further explore the target range of $2,000 - $2,200.

The risk-averse strategies continuously reminded recently have shown significant effects, with many investors profiting by shorting at highs.
Once again, it is emphasized: avoid blindly chasing prices, and strictly follow key technical positions for operations. During periods of increased market volatility, adhere to the principle of prioritizing risk control, and all strategies are publicly verified in advance. #加密市场回调

兄弟们，群已经建好。直接进

Altcoins: Operational Strategy Current Market Environment Analysis
Overall pullback pressure is significant. Except for ETH, most altcoins have recently experienced considerable adjustments (generally a pullback of 10%+), especially Meme coins and small-cap projects that had previously seen high increases.
Due to regulatory policies in certain regions, high-risk sectors (such as Meme coins) are the first to be impacted, and a sudden drop in liquidity has intensified selling pressure.

There is strong sector interconnectivity: The altcoin market exhibits characteristics of "all rise together, all fall together"; systemic pullback risks must be heeded. If BTC/ETH continues to fluctuate or decline, altcoins may face further pressure, with some coins potentially seeing pullbacks of 15%-20%.

Focus on swing trading: The current market is not suitable for long-term holding of altcoins; a "quick in and out" strategy should be adopted, taking profits promptly when rebounding to resistance levels.
Those who have not entered the market should avoid bottom-fishing and wait for market stabilization (such as BTC confirming support at $106,000 and ETH stabilizing above $2,700 before considering entry).

Watch for the next opportunity: If the market stabilizes, prioritize positioning in resilient mid-cap projects with solid fundamentals (such as leading AI and Depin sector projects). Avoid regulatory-sensitive sectors (such as Meme coins and shitcoins) until policy risks become clearer.

"Pullbacks in a bull market are often rapid and severe"—strict adherence to discipline is essential to avoid emotional trading. The market is not short of opportunities; what is lacking is the patience to preserve profits. #看懂K线

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Yesterday closed with a solid bearish candle, indicating weakened short-term bullish momentum. In the past two days, it has tested the highs around $11,050 three times before retreating, forming a short-term resistance level, while the support at $10,800 has remained firm. The overall upward trend is not broken, the MA7 moving average continues to rise, and the consolidation phase helps to correct technical indicator divergences.

4-Hour Level: Volume has increased, but prices have not reached new highs, indicating the market is facing selling pressure at high levels. Currently, it has formed three consecutive small bearish candles and is in a correction phase, but the support at $10,800 is effective, showing signs of a short-term bottoming.
Key Trading Range: Support Level: $10,750-$10,650 (if broken, pay attention to the defense zone at $10,500-$10,400) Resistance Level: $10,950-$11,050 (once broken, it is expected to test previous highs)

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Yesterday's price peaked and then retreated, entering an adjustment phase to correct the technical overbought condition caused by the previous two days of significant gains. Overall, it still maintains an ascending wedge structure, with a low probability of a sharp decline in the short term. Weekly Level: After a significant surge in early May, the indicators were repaired through four weeks of range-bound consolidation, and this week a large bullish candle has broken through. If it maintains its current shape, it is expected to challenge the $3,000 mark.

4-Hour Level: After a dip to $2,740 in the early morning, it has stopped falling. This position is the key short-term support. If it breaks below $2,740, the next important support is near $2,700.
Key Trading Range:
Support Level: $2,740-$2,710 (if broken, pay attention to $2,700 for defense)
Resistance Level: $2,800-$2,830 (once broken, it may challenge $2,900-$3,000)

BTC: Pay attention to the $10,800 support in the short term; if it stabilizes, consider a light long position with a target of $10,950-$11,050; if it breaks below $10,650, then observe.
ETH: $2,740 is the dividing line between bullish and bearish for the day; if it stabilizes, consider a low buy with a target of $2,800+; if it loses $2,700, then wait for a lower support level to re-enter.

BTC/ETH Intraday Market Analysis: Good News Materializes, Which is Bad News
Bitcoin's market yesterday showed an overall sideways consolidation pattern, with the $110,000 level consistently failing to hold. From the four-hour K-line perspective, this price level has formed a clear characteristic of a phase top, and a technical correction has become inevitable.
The current correction range is relatively limited, and attention should be focused on the first support zone of $106,000-$107,000. If this support level is effectively breached, the downward space will open further, potentially testing or even breaking the psychological level of $100,000, and investors need to remain vigilant.
Regarding Ethereum, after breaking through the key level at midnight yesterday, the daily K-line finally closed with a long upper shadow bearish candlestick at 8 AM, marking the official end of this round of corrective rally.
Considering that Bitcoin has entered a high position correction phase, Ethereum is likely to start a follow-down mode. Investors need to be reminded not to be blindly optimistic due to short-term rebounds, as many bullish voices have disappeared today; similarly, bears should not be overly excited due to slight intraday corrections.
Currently, Ethereum is focusing on the support zone of $2,660-$2,700, and if the key level of $2,660 is lost, the price may return to the $2,400-$2,500 range for consolidation.
Specific strategies can be discussed further, feel free to consult for real-time layout suggestions.

Altcoins: The Market is Gaining Momentum: Is a Historical Market Replay Imminent?

Historical Market Review and Comparison with Current Market

Typical Market Rotation Patterns Emerge: Referring to the evolution path of the market in the second half of 2023, BTC is the first to start (from 54,000 in September to over 100,000 in December) after mainstream coins complete their breakthroughs, altcoins will enter an explosive window (fully blooming from November)

Macro Level: Expectations of a Shift in Federal Reserve Policy + U.S. Election Market

Funding Level: During critical periods, the issuance scale of stablecoins reached 21 billion (11-12 months is the peak period)

Market Behavior: After BTC's breakthrough, funds spread to the altcoin sector

Mainstream Coins Strong Breakthrough: BTC/ETH have recently shown a unilateral upward trend, with funds still concentrated on mainstream coins, while altcoins have relatively lagged in overall performance.

Altcoin Accumulation Phase: Over the past 24 hours, the increase has significantly lagged behind mainstream coins, and funds have not yet rotated en masse into the altcoin sector, with quality projects showing signs of accumulation at low levels.

According to historical patterns, in the 1-2 months after the breakthrough of mainstream coins,

Pay close attention to the flow of funds after BTC stabilizes at key positions.

Coin Selection Logic: Prioritize selecting quality projects that have completed bottom formation, focus on potential coins with moderately increasing trading volume, and emphasize layout in infrastructure and leading AI sectors.

Specific strategies can be further discussed; feel free to consult for real-time layout advice. #看懂K线

BTC Market Analysis: Daily Level

Yesterday closed with a solid bullish candle, forming a five-day upward trend with strong short-term upward momentum.

The 7-day moving average has crossed above the 14-day moving average, forming a golden cross, indicating that the market bulls are dominant, with further upward momentum expected.

Referencing historical trends, phase-based upward movements are usually accompanied by ten-thousand-point-level gains, with the next target range focused on 113,000-115,000.

4-Hour Level

After a V-shaped reversal from the 100,000 mark, the price is currently in the second wave upward phase, expected to continue its upward trend after a short-term adjustment.

Key Support: 108,800-107,800

Upper Pressure: 110,800-111,800, a breakthrough here could accelerate upward movement.

ETH Trend Analysis: Daily Level

After building a bottom in the 2480-2540 range, the price rebounded strongly, with a bullish candle breaking multiple moving average resistances, indicating a strengthening short-term trend.

At 3050, there is some selling pressure; a breakthrough here may lead to a phase of fluctuating upward movement.

4-Hour Level

Increased volume in the early morning, with slight adjustments during the Asian session, but the extent of the pullback is limited, showing strong bullish sentiment in the market.

Key Support: 2660-2640; if the daily close remains above 2680, the upward momentum will further strengthen.

Specific strategies can be further discussed; feel free to consult for real-time layout suggestions.

Shanzhai: Waiting for the Right Opportunity, Precision Ambush on Market Conditions
Currently, altcoins are generally in a state of low volatility, lacking trending opportunities, and operational value is limited. We maintain a strategy of holding cash and observing, patiently waiting for clear bottom signals in the market before choosing the right time to invest.

Key Features of Bottom Formation: The true bottom of altcoins is often accompanied by the following technical signals:
Volume Selling: Major funds strongly wash out, leading to panic selling
Consolidation with Decreased Volume: The 4-hour level shows an extremely low-volume consolidation state
False Breakout Signals: Small-scale candlestick patterns show false breakouts with increased volume, but prices do not make new lows
Volume-Price Divergence: Price oscillation ranges gradually rise, but trading volume continues to shrink

Judging Golden Buy Points
When there is a high risk-reward opportunity of "downside space <10%, upside space >30%", consider building positions in batches.
Especially: Strong sector leading coins
Coins with sustainable hot concepts
Low market cap varieties with healthy volume-price structure

Continue to remain observant, avoiding blind bottom-fishing
Focus on observing changes in volume at the 4-hour level
Wait for the above bottom features to appear before considering batch investments
Prioritize high resilience and strong rebound quality altcoins

BTC & ETH Technical Analysis and Short-Term Trading Strategy
BTC
Bitcoin:
Last week, a bullish candle with a long lower shadow was formed, briefly dipping below the 7-week moving average before rebounding, indicating certain buying support below. Key support to watch is 94,000; if broken, further declines may occur.

Daily Level: Over the past two weeks, a downward trend has been observed, with the first resistance level above at 107,000 (previous step bottom). Currently at the second step top (around 106,000), if today closes with a solid bearish candle and breaks below 105,000, it may initiate a new round of decline.

4-Hour Level: A V-shaped double top structure was formed last week, and currently, two consecutive large bearish candles indicate that bears are dominant, suggesting further downside in the short term. Key intraday pressure: 106,000-107,000, support to watch is 104,000-103,000.

ETH (Ethereum)
Weekly Level: Four consecutive weeks of highs followed by pullbacks, closing with a long upper shadow, indicating significant selling pressure above.
Key support to watch is 2400 (7-week moving average); if lost, it may accelerate the pullback.

Daily Level: For nearly a month, it has maintained a high-level range (2680-2480). On June 6, a large bearish candle broke below the 30-day moving average (lifeline), and after a rebound, it turned bearish again today; if it breaks below 2480 and closes with a solid bearish candle, the short-term target may look down to 2280.

4-Hour Level: Two consecutive large bearish candles have broken the rebound channel, indicating a bearish short-term trend.
Key intraday pressure: 2510-2540, support to watch is 2460-2420. #非农就业数据来袭

Ethereum market faces a crucial test with the "Non-Farm Payroll data"; how to grasp the severe volatility?
Tonight at 20:30, the market will anticipate the major release of the U.S. May non-farm employment data. The previous value was 175,000, with market expectations at a median of 130,000.
Recent employment market indicators show that the ADP employment data released on Wednesday recorded only 37,000 (expected 110,000), hitting a new low since March 2023; ISM non-manufacturing PMI employment component fell into contraction territory (48.1); and the unemployment rate remains high at 4.2%. Multiple leading indicators point to a significant cooling of the employment market, making it likely that actual data will be below expectations.

Data impact analysis in three dimensions:
If the data is significantly below expectations: this will strengthen the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier (current market pricing indicates a 68% probability of a rate cut in September), providing short-term benefits for risk assets;
Changes in capital flow: the U.S. dollar index may come under pressure, with some funds possibly rotating into gold and cryptocurrencies for hedging;
Market volatility characteristics: after a short-term rebound, one should be alert to a "buy the expectation sell the fact" market, and concerns about a medium- to long-term economic recession might trigger a new round of risk-off selling (referencing the synchronous decline of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency markets after Wednesday's ADP data).

Key technical points:
Bitcoin (BTC): Currently in a phase of oversold correction, but the volume-price structure indicates insufficient rebound momentum (24-hour trading volume shrank by 23%). The 4-hour chart is showing a downward channel, with multiple resistances in the 104-105 area (including the 7-day moving average and previous low conversion point), while the 100-101 range below serves as psychological support. Pay special attention to possible instantaneous volatility after the data release (historical data shows that the average volatility on non-farm payroll night reaches ±3.5%).

Ethereum (ETH):
Intraday rebound is hindered at the key resistance level of 2480 (previous support turned resistance), with the 4-hour MACD showing a bottom divergence but not confirming with volume. The area above 2480-2520 is a dense trading zone; if a long upper shadow appears, one should be cautious of a potential trap for bulls; the area below 2380-2400 serves as a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, breaching it may test the 2300 integer level.

Altcoin Trading Strategy Analysis:
In market fluctuations, the trends of altcoins often exhibit phase characteristics. Whether rising or falling, there will be significant support/resistance zones. The core trading principle is 'exit on break' — when a key support level is lost, decisive stop-loss action is necessary to avoid deep entrapment.

Key observation direction: Focus on the coins that performed strongly in early May; if they show stabilization signals after this round of deep correction, a new round of entry opportunities may arise. #美国初请失业金人数

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC)
Yesterday's analysis pointed out that the 106 position constitutes key resistance, and during the US market session, the price rose to that area before falling back under pressure.
Affected by recent weak macroeconomic data (ADP employment, inflation, and non-farm payrolls), market risk aversion has increased (gold has strengthened), coupled with a chain liquidation effect caused by high-leverage trading and regulatory uncertainty aggravating market panic, resulting in a deep pullback at the end of the US market.
The daily chart shows a high-to-low bearish candlestick pattern, losing the 30-day moving average (lifeline) and the recent key support at the 103 mark, while the 7-day moving average continues to decline. In the early morning session, the price quickly dipped to around the psychological level of 100, confirming a short-term bearish trend, with effective support to reference at the 95 level.
The 4-hour chart shows that after the US market's high-to-low move, there was a volume drop in the early morning, and currently, it is temporarily supported at the 100 mark. The intraday strategy suggests going short after a rebound, with upper resistance focusing on the 102-103 range and lower support focusing on the 98-99 range.

Ethereum (ETH):
The daily chart closed with a solid bearish candlestick, and in the early morning, it broke below the upper boundary of the range from early this month (2480-2540) and accelerated downward.
The current daily chart shows a large bearish candlestick breaking below the 30-day moving average (lifeline), with short-term support moving down to around 2280. If this level is lost, it could open up greater downward space, and the market may need a longer time to recover.
The 4-hour chart shows a breakout drop in volume, and currently, it is temporarily halting its decline at the 2400 mark, with technical formations already indicating a breakout signal.
The intraday operation suggests going short at an opportune moment after a rebound, with upper resistance focusing on the 2450-2480 range and lower support focusing on the 2350-2380 range.#特朗普马斯克分歧 #美国初请失业金人数