1. Policy Trigger Point: Central Government Designates Shanghai as Offshore Hub for Crypto Assets
On June 18, the Central Financial Committee Released (Opinions on Supporting the Acceleration of Shanghai's Construction as an International Financial Center) (Hereinafter referred to as (Opinions)), Directly Naming Blockchain Technology Empowering Supply Chain Finance, and Clearly Requiring the Construction of an Offshore Financial System Matching Shanghai's International Status. Core Highlights Include:
Blockchain 'National Team' Involved: Requiring Financial Institutions to Reconstruct Supply Chain Finance Using Blockchain to Solve Small and Medium Enterprises' Financing Issues (Smart Contracts + On-chain Data Transparency), Equivalent to Granting Compliance Licenses for DeFi.
Offshore Financial Opening: Shanghai Will Pilot Cross-Border Syndicated Loans and Non-Resident Financial Services, Aiming to Replace Hong Kong and Singapore's Offshore Crypto Asset Trading Status.
BlackRock-Level Treatment: Policy Clearly States 'Connecting to International High Standards', Implying Foreign Capital Can Participate in China's On-chain Finance Through Compliant Channels - Paving the Way for BTC/ETH Spot ETF.
Shanghai's Offshore Financial Scale Has Exceeded 20 Trillion RMB (Q1 2025), Financing Costs for Blockchain Supply Chain Financial Pilot Enterprises Decreased by 37%.
2. Market Covert Battle: Major Players Use Policies to Wash Out Positions, On-chain Whale Movements
Long-Short Squeeze Situation: Current BTC Price 104,885 USDT, 2.3 Million Short Positions Accumulated at 105,300 (About 2.4 Billion USD), But On-chain Shows 37 New Whale Addresses Added Weekly (Glassnode), Clearly Betting on Policy Implementation
Offshore Financial Linkage Signal: Shanghai Free Trade Zone Account Cross-Border Settlement Volume Surged 18% in One Day (Data from June 18), Offshore RMB (CNH) Exchange Rate Jumped 0.8%, Funds Entering Crypto Market Through Compliant Channels
BlackRock's Strategic Move: Increased Holdings of 1,723 BTC in Spot ETF Yesterday, Cost Price 105,200 USD - Highly Coinciding with Policy Release Time, Insider Trading Suspicions at Maximum
3. Ultimate Simulation: Policy Bull vs Data Kill
1. Surge Scenario (Probability 60%)
Trigger Point: Shanghai Offshore Financial Regulations to be Released in July, Clarifying Cross-Border Flow Rules for Digital Assets
Target Position: BTC Breaks 105,300, Short Squeeze Directly Attacking 110,000
Core Reason: Blockchain + Offshore Financial Combination Equals Implicit Recognition of Crypto Assets' Settlement Status in Cross-Border Trade
2. Crash Trap (Probability 40%)
Black Swan: US CPI to be Released Tonight (Expected 3.1%), If Above Expectations, Will Suppress Global Risk Assets
Key Defense Line: 104,500 as Institutional Cost Line, Breaching Will Trigger Programmatic Selling to 103,400
4. Sniping Strategy: Precise Positioning of Policy Dividends
Spot Ambush: Current Price 104,885, Establish 50% Position, Stop Loss 104,400
Hedge Order: Short Position at 105,280 (Betting on Spike After Positive News Realization)
Nuclear Defense: Reserve 30% of Bullets, Close All Positions 5 Minutes Before CPI Data Release
#BTC
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