Urgent Report: Lummis leads a secondary hearing, crypto regulation 'power sharing' heats up.
This morning, the Senate Banking Committee made a bold move, confirming that the secondary hearing led by crypto iron lady Cynthia Lummis will fully commence next week, with core topics directly addressing regulatory power division in the crypto market structure bill.
This is the second round of nuclear-level policy reshuffle in Washington towards the crypto world following the (GENIUS Act).
More explosively, Committee Chairman Tim Scott has stated that 'the full hearing will land within a month', clearly indicating an intention to rush legislation before August over the SEC's dead body.
Core of the Bill: The 'Throat-Slitting War' between SEC and CFTC
According to leaked drafts, the core of this game is to redefine the jurisdiction of crypto assets:
SEC Power Lock: If a project's token does not meet the decentralized standard of 'no single entity controlling the network within 12 months + token issuer's holdings ≤ 20%', it will directly fall under SEC's nuclear regulation.
CFTC's Opportunity: Tokens that meet the standards will be under CFTC jurisdiction, and the commodity attribute certification will activate traditional financial instruments like futures and ETFs.
This is equivalent to issuing 'golden parachutes' to the V-gods, while controversial assets like SOL and XRP may face the SEC's deadly gaze.
Life and Death Race: Three Possible Outcomes of the August Legislative Window
Scenario A (Probability 45%): The Lummis faction wins, CFTC secures regulatory authority over mainstream cryptocurrencies, ETH, SOL, and others receive 'commodity certification', and spot ETFs are approved in bulk, igniting a bull market.
Scenario B (Probability 35%): SEC retaliates successfully, strictly scrutinizes decentralized standards, at least delaying legislation until 2026, triggering a collective flash crash of compliant exchange tokens.
Scenario C (Probability 20%): Bipartisan fighting leads to legislative stalemate, Trump urgently signs an executive order to push forward (GENIUS Act) related clauses, with stablecoins being the only beneficiaries.
Main Force Movements: Wall Street has preemptively bet on the 'Commodity Faction'.
On-chain whale monitoring shows that over 47,000 BTC have been transferred from Coinbase Pro to cold wallets in the past week, suspected to be institutions hoarding for spot ETF approval.
At the same time, CFTC's position data shows that ETH futures open interest surged by 37%, reaching a new high in 2025. This operation closely aligns with the capital flow before the approval of the 2024 Bitcoin spot ETF, indicating that smart money is clearly betting on the 'Commodity Faction' winning.
Retail Survival Rules: Three Strategies to Handle Regulatory Black Swans
Hedging Regulatory Fragmentation Risks: Main positions allocate BTC, ETH, and other 'decentralized certified safe zone' assets, while speculative positions focus on RWA, Depin, and other tracks with low policy relevance.
Sniping Hearing Volatility: Before and after the Senate hearing, compliant platform tokens like BNB and OKB usually experience 5%-12% volatility, utilizing Binance options to set up straddle strategies.
Beware of Leverage Liquidation Tides: The current long-short ratio across the network is 1.8, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to 0.047. If the bill encounters obstacles, it may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. Reserve 30% of funds for BTC's spike to $68,000.
#GENIUS稳定币法案 $BTC
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