1. Technical analysis revealed
Long and short double kill range: Price is precisely locked in the range of 104,500-105,300 (the fluctuation points in red and green boxes in the figure), MA7 (104,771) and MA30 (104,741) have the highest convergence in 3 months, with only a 30-dollar distance between moving averages.
MACD hides danger: Although the DIF (64.61) stands above the DEA (58.3), the histogram (11.6) continues to shrink, which is a typical signal of bull exhaustion.
Order book slaughterhouse: 2.3 million BTC shorts (about 2.41 billion dollars) are pressed at 105,300, while 1.78 billion dollars in long orders are ambushed below 104,600 (Binance depth chart), which is a textbook-level high-intensity fluctuation structure.
2. Main force's hidden card exposed
Whales are precisely controlling the market: On-chain data shows that there are 37 new addresses holding 1000+ BTC, and these players love to launch raids when moving averages are converging.
BlackRock's cost line becomes a lifeline: Institutional holding cost 105,200 (not marked in the figure), only 315 dollars away from the current price; once breached, it will trigger a wave of programmatic selling.
[Three Major Turning Points]
Senate nuclear bomb
If the Lummis faction (crypto market structure bill) passes, BTC/ETH gaining commodity certification will lead to a violent surge; if blocked, it will break the 104,500 support with volume.
PlusToken whale smoke bomb
This morning, 79,957 BTC transferred to Coinbase is actually a custodial migration (on-chain verification, not a sell-off), but shorts take the opportunity to spread panic and create a liquidation trap.
CPI data nuclear explosion
US May CPI expected at 3.1%; if it exceeds expectations, it will completely crush the possibility of a rate cut in September, and BTC may plummet by 3-5% instantly.
Upward script
Trigger conditions: Senate bill passage + whale transfer being falsified.
Technical signals: After breaking through 105,300 with volume, shorts will rush directly to 108,000 (the neckline of the daily head-and-shoulders bottom).
Core logic: The cost line of institutions like BlackRock becomes a spring base, and the favorable bill catalyzes ETH/BTC exchange rate rebound to 0.055.
Downward script
Trigger conditions: Bill encounter blockage + CPI ≥ 3.1%
Slaughter knife landing point: Breaching 104,500 ignites leveraged long positions, with a spike to 103,400 (weekly EMA120 support).
Deadly move: The overall long-short ratio is 1.8, with 520 million dollars worth of short liquidation orders piled up at 104,200.
#BTC走势分析 #BTC $BTC
Personal conclusion: Currently, it is the high-pressure fluctuation on the eve of the bull-bear showdown; a breakout is inevitable within 48 hours!
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