'Bull markets often crash, bear markets often surge—the crypto market's script is always more thrilling than Hollywood!' This morning, when I opened my eyes, BTC was playing 'sit-ups' at the 105000 dollar mark; both sides are choking each other red-faced; should we retail investors charge in or sit back and watch? Let's hear Big Saint break it down!

1. Market: Main force setting traps, retail investors cutting losses

The current 4-hour K line looks just like a 'dog chewed ECG'—

Upper pressure: 105917 dollars (Bollinger upper band) is like an iron plate; yesterday, three assaults were smashed back, and the voices of trapped investors cursing can be heard through the screen;

Lower support: 102363 dollars (Bollinger middle band) is a short-term lifeline; when it briefly dipped to 103700 this morning, many people were scared into selling, but the dealer quickly pulled it back up—this is a typical 'killing stops' tactic.

MACD has hidden mysteries:
DIF (1236) and DEA (876) are flirting below the zero axis, about to golden cross, but the green bars are shrinking hesitantly—indicating that the main force is still hesitating; at this moment, whoever moves first will be the cannon fodder!

2. News front: ETF capital outflow + Federal Reserve hawkish stance

I just dug into today's hot topics; two pieces of news directly influenced the situation:

  1. Negative news: Grayscale ETF has seen a net outflow for three consecutive days (another 620,000 dollars ran away this morning), large institutions are retreating, while small investors shout 'buy the dip'; this scene feels familiar...

  2. Positive news: The US SEC suddenly loosened its stance on Ethereum ETF (though it hasn't been approved yet), funds are starting to bet on 'altcoin season', BTC hash rate hit a new high, and miners are holding strong without selling—this time I stand with the bulls!

Big Saint's personal experience:
Last week, an old trader in my group, 'Dog Brother', heavily invested in long positions at 105500, only to be liquidated after a spike and angrily cursed: 'The dog dealer doesn't even spare stop losses!' As a result, it rebounded to 104800 today, and he slapped his thigh again. This is how the crypto market works: 'You think you are buying the dip, but you are actually catching flying knives.'

3. Big Saint's viewpoint: Develop cautiously, don't be reckless!

  1. Short-term:

    • Break above 105917 and stabilize, target for long positions at 107000 (previous high);

    • If it drops below 102363, hurry to run away; there's a 99% probability it will touch the psychological level of 100,000 dollars.

  2. Medium-term:
    Mining costs and institutional average buying prices concentrate around 98000-100000; if it really drops to this level, a blind investment has an 80% winning rate!

Don't be fooled by 'get rich stories'! In this market, 'a slippery person who runs after earning 5% lives longer than a fool who wants to double their money'.

Opportunities to make money are always there; it depends on whether you can seize this moment, but the prerequisite is to learn to distinguish technical and news fundamentals as a basis for building positions. If you don't know how to distinguish, you can follow Big Saint's homepage, where I will teach you step by step!