"If the Fed cuts rates once less, the crypto market may shed a layer of skin! This is not a scare tactic; the dollar scythe is about to swing again!"

Big Saint analyzes: What impact does the Fed cutting rates just once have on the crypto market?

  1. The dollar is getting more expensive, hot money is retreating (this is critical!).

    • Now the market is looking forward to two rate cuts in 2025 (for example, many institutions are betting this way after the June CPI data).

    • If the Fed suddenly says, "We will only cut once," it would be like pouring cold water on the market!

    • Consequences: The dollar will be worth more (dollar index rises), and global hot money will flee from high-risk, high-return assets like Bitcoin, returning to the US for interest!

    • Case study: In March this year, the Fed stubbornly said no to rate cuts, and BTC plummeted along with US stocks. At that time, the dollar rose by 1%, and the crypto market lost $230 million! Big Saint's view: The crypto market is currently a struggling younger brother to the US stock market; if the elder brother (US stocks) catches a cold, the younger brother (BTC) will definitely have a fever!

  2. Leverage chain explosion, trampling risk is high (adding fuel to the fire!)

    • Now a lot of people are betting on contracts to rise, with key support at $105,000 - $108,000 (according to June data).

    • If interest rate cut expectations fail, as long as BTC drops by 5%, it could instantly blow up $2 billion in long positions! Just think about April when the tariff news caused a $1 billion explosion in one day!

    • Institutions can't hold on either: I've heard that the average cost for large holders on Coinbase is between $100,000 and $103,000, and if it falls below this, it could trigger machines to automatically sell (stop-loss orders), creating a vicious cycle! Big Saint reminds: don't think institutions won't cut their losses; robots cut positions even harder than retail investors!

  3. The overall environment is worsening (when it rains, it pours!).

    • Trump's tariffs are back, and US inflation is rising again (April core PCE reached 2.8%).

    • If the Fed dares not cut rates to control inflation, tech stocks (Nasdaq) will certainly suffer, and BTC is currently highly correlated with the Nasdaq's movements!

    • Regulation is still lagging: Powell says cryptocurrencies are important, but the stablecoin regulatory rules are still not out. When funds are tight, institutions are most afraid of unclear policies and dare not easily enter the market to buy the dip! Big Saint complains: "Compliant funds are waiting for the starting gun, but the Fed has blocked the barrel!"

Market projection: If there is only one rate cut, where will BTC go?

Short-term (1-3 months):

There's a high probability of testing $103,000 (50-day moving average) → psychological barrier at $105,000 → even crashing to $108,000 (200-day moving average lifeline)!

Altcoins are faring worse, with an average drop possibly exceeding 30%! (Don't doubt it, illiquid altcoins drop much harder than BTC.)

Comparative case: In April this year, gold surged to new highs, but BTC couldn't keep up. This is already a dangerous signal—indicating that the crypto market itself is weak!

Big Saint summarizes and gives practical advice:

"Rate cut shrinkage = Dollar siphoning = Crypto market bleeding! Don't be stubborn in the short term; look for a policy shift in the long term!"

Current life-saving strategy:
1 Lower leverage to below 3 times! Be especially careful in the $103,000 - $105,000 range, as this is a disaster zone for liquidations;
2 Stock up on USDT (stablecoin) as bullets! When gold rushes to $3,450, the probability of BTC rising is greater (historical trend);
3 Want to buy the dip? Stick to compliant channels! For example, BlackRock's BTC spot ETF (IBIT), as whales are in it (managing over $130 billion), making it a high-security option.

Big Saint's opinion: If this really crashes down, it will be an opportunity for "deleveraging and washing floating capital"! Focus on changes in the Fed's attitude from September to November; historical data shows that once a rate cut cycle starts, BTC can average a 37% increase within 120 days!


"Is it panic selling or buying the dip? Next issue, Big Saint will help you analyze: under the Fed's 'hawk claw', which sectors can break through against the trend? Follow Big Saint; don't panic during crashes, and don't be reckless during wealth accumulation!"