'The Federal Reserve opens the tap, and the crypto world directly parties; if they suddenly turn off the tap, the whole scene will instantly become an ICU—it's all about the heartbeat, betting on the expectation difference!'
Plain talk to break down tonight's FOMC:
Brothers, tonight at 2 AM (Beijing time), this group of big shots at the Federal Reserve will decide on the interest rate. Whether it's a rate cut, a hike, or no action, the crypto world will definitely put on a show of 'Speed and Passion'. Why? Because where the global hot money flows depends entirely on the Federal Reserve's mood! We traders are essentially betting on whether they will provide liquidity!
For specific buy and sell points and positions, follow the Great Sage's homepage, in the profile.
Scenario 1: Rate cut → Let me take off!
The logic is super simple: borrowing from banks has become cheaper → hot money has nowhere to go → things like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are 'high risk and high returns', become hot commodities!
Personal experience from the Great Sage: In 2020, the US cut rates to zero in one go. I was holding some Bitcoin and didn't sell, and guess what happened? The next year, it went from 30,000 RMB to over 400,000! When the liquidity flows, even pigs can fly!
Key point: We need to see if they are just hinting at a small cut or if they're starting a 'rate cut party'. If they imply that there will be more cuts in the future, then great, the bull market engine will ignite directly!
Scenario 2: Rate hike → Get ready to cut losses!
The logic is more brutal: rising borrowing costs → those leveraging to trade crypto panic instantly → selling coins to repay debts triggers a stampede!
Blood and tears lesson: In June 2022, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points. I personally saw several friends in the group, who were trading contracts, turn from 'prestigious VIPs' to 'victims seeking rights' overnight. BTC plummeted 15% that day, and liquidation orders piled up like a mountain! (Thinking back now, it still gives me chills.)
Current risk: The leverage funds on the contracts listed in exchanges exceed 35 billion USD! If they dare to raise interest rates tonight, do you believe they can create a '1 billion USD level fireworks show' in a minute? Cherish life, stay away from high leverage! [Light a cigarette.jpg]
Scenario 3: Stay unchanged → both bulls and bears get killed, playing you to death!
The most insidious situation: interest rates stay the same, but Powell (the Fed Chair) can stir things up with his words!
If he turns hawkish (says inflation is still high, may need to raise more): the market will panic, and the price may crash 5-8%!
If he turns dovish (says the economy is not doing well, may need to cut in the future): the market will rejoice, and the price can rise 3-5%!
Why is it so crazy? Because currently, 78% of people in the market are betting on a rate cut (Data: CME FedWatch). If Powell comes out and says 'not happening!', just think about how big the expectation difference will be! BTC can spike or plummet by 2000 USD in an instant like it's nothing! It treats all doubts!
For specific buy and sell points and positions, follow the Great Sage's homepage, in the profile.
What does the Great Sage think? What to do?
I bet tonight will be 'no action but dovish'! Inflation data just came down a bit, and in an election year, the Americans won't dare to really crash the economy. Powell is likely to just talk to calm the market and hint that 'there may be cuts in the future'. (Waiting to be proven wrong!)
But! Don't go all in! This market is all about 'news trading', and it's about who is quicker and more ruthless.
Is the rate cut confirmed? Don't hesitate, go for the leaders! Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) are the most sensitive to liquidity; just go for it! When the water comes, the boat will surely rise!
Unexpected interest rate hike? Run! Don't look back! First, convert to USDT and go to the exchange for high interest (overnight annualized may soar to 15%+), only by preserving the principal can you make a comeback.
Stay unchanged? Keep a close eye on Powell's lips! He says 'inflation is controllable' = opportunity to steal; he says 'we need to raise interest rates' = quickly close positions and play dead. The bigger the fluctuations, the more opportunities to pick up bloody chips!
'At 2 AM, whether the Federal Reserve's 'interest rate knife' or 'rate cut cannon' will determine if you will be a club's young model or go to work! The Great Sage will provide real-time trading guidance in the fan group/live broadcast, teaching you how to avoid liquidation and catch surges! If you're a brother, let's go flip the whale together! Tonight, don't miss it!'$BTC #我的交易风格