Advisor Talks about Hot Topics:
Waking up, the so-called news rewriting history hasn't happened. As for the Fed's recent FOMC meeting, to put it plainly, it's just the same old routine—saying they will maintain high interest rates. However, they still plan to cut rates twice in 2025, reducing the expected range from 125-150 basis points to 100 basis points.
And I mentioned yesterday that the entire market already knows there won't be a rate cut, so the Fed's recent actions didn’t scare anyone, nor did they provide any warmth. Once the dot plot came out, it essentially means we are arguing internally quite fiercely. On one hand, they say the economy is slowing down, while on the other hand, they say employment is still okay.
Anyway, it's all about touching various aspects but guarantees nothing. Old Powell's rhetoric is enough, and it’s clearly a jab at the administration: if you dare to impose tariffs randomly, I won’t rush to cut rates; you can’t force me to back down!
Back to the market, the performance of Bitcoin in the past couple of days has been quite sensitive. With no significant movement in the US stock market, it has already begun to realize the bearish news. Now, the fluctuations around 105K are as narrow as a pair of pants, and the intention is clear: to horizontally level everyone's holding costs and build momentum for the real fluctuations to come.
But I tell you, once this fluctuation ends, it's most likely to go down. Why? It's simple, it has risen for 7 weeks, and now it’s just taking a breath; the pullback is simply not enough.
100K is regarded as an iron bottom by countless bulls. Do you think the main force doesn't want to stab down and trigger their liquidation? Don't be foolish. Right now, we can't even stand on the middle track, and the structure is clearly bearish.
And the most interesting part is whether the imagined 102k liquidation and V-reversal can still happen? Theoretically, there is indeed a bit of possibility. Today is Thursday, a federal holiday in the US, and the US stock market is closed, so market liquidity will definitely be low.
If something unexpected happens in the Middle East at this time, the market could explode with liquidations. To put it simply, those who want to bottom out and those who want to take profits on their short positions need to see if the administration has the ability to stir things up.
But if there are no issues in the next few days, then after the fluctuations, it will slowly rebound. The small levels won't give you a V-reversal opportunity at all, and I personally believe that this shrinking fluctuation will likely lead to a pattern where the volatility first increases.
Whether we drop first or rise first doesn't matter; what's important is that once it moves, the direction will come. If it first dips down, it might actually lead to a rise later; but if it first makes a false breakout to 106K, we need to be cautious, as it could likely be a manipulation to distribute, directly turning into a bearish market.
By the way, recently someone asked me when the 90K short can be closed? You’re quite something; I can only say, let’s be conservative and see if there are opportunities in July or August.
Currently, the range above 100K will last longer than you think, but from the larger structure, anything below 126K is basically considered a distribution range, not meant to pull up but to push down!
Advisor Looks at Trends:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 106000.
First resistance level: 105300.
Support Level Reference:
Second support level: 104100.
First support level: 103400.
On the hourly level, the price of Bitcoin has received support twice at 103.4 K, forming a triple bottom structure. As long as it doesn't drop below 103.4 K, the rebound logic remains valid. Subsequent trading decisions can focus on breakthroughs or failures below this range.
The first resistance at 105.3 K is the current upper edge of the short-term range. If the price rebounds to this level, it will face the first round of pressure. However, it can also serve as the first target for taking profits in stages.
If the second resistance at 106.0 K can stabilize, it indicates strong bullish momentum. If it rises without volume and then falls back, we need to be wary of selling pressure above. Each time it pulls back to the second support at 104.1 K, it has stabilized and built a bottom, so the rebound logic can still be maintained in the short term.
The first support at 103.4 K is the deepest point of the triple bottom. If the price shows a lower shadow at this position, it indicates strong buying interest, and we can continue to look for a rebound. If it directly breaks through with a solid K-line, it is advisable to quickly adjust your mindset and focus on shorting or observing.
June 19 Advisor's Wave Band Pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: Buy in batches in the range of 103400-104100. Target: 105300-106000.
Short entry reference: Not currently referenced.
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, instead of jumping to conclusions after a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions. It seems like they always catch the tops and bottoms, but in reality, they are just guessing after the fact. A truly worthy blogger's trading logic must be consistent and self-consistent, able to withstand scrutiny, rather than jumping in when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots. Long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
