Master discusses hot topics:
I woke up this morning and looked at the market, thinking I had traveled back to last month. The three major U.S. stock indexes decisively fell, gold didn’t explode but remained stable. In the cryptocurrency space, the pancake fell to 103.4K after hitting a short-term support, while Ethereum touched around 2455 and took a breath.
Actually, this is quite reasonable. You should know that the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense; the normal logic is that safe-haven assets like gold and oil rise, while risk assets like the stock and cryptocurrency markets fall. The market isn’t going haywire.
The focus now is that at 2 AM, the Americans will hold another interest rate meeting. As for the expectation of not cutting rates, the market has basically solidified that. However, the real key is the dot plot.
If the dot plot still maintains expectations for two rate cuts, the market will react immediately. One in September and another in December would ignite the market for the second half of the year. As for the recent influx of news? Yes, indeed. But remember, news is an accelerator, not a steering wheel. The trend will not change.
Back to the pancake, after seven consecutive weekly gains, it needs to catch its breath. To be honest, this wave of correction isn’t deep and can still grind. The pancake will also oscillate slightly around 106K, and those who are anxious will be the first to suffer.
After holding 102700 on Monday, it rebounded, targeting the gap at 108366. The market opened on Tuesday and filled the gap, then a piece of news caused it to drop without hesitation. Last night it dipped to 103.4K and then pulled back; it is now fluctuating between 104-105.
Then there are three expectations moving forward. First, the triangular oscillation continues. The range of 104-108K is sideways, waiting for the dot plot to determine the direction. Secondly, the second wave of the rally may begin, holding the 103K support and continuing to push upwards towards 110K.
Furthermore, it may break down to 98K or even lower, then make a V-shaped recovery from the lows. So the key is to see how the FOMC speaks in the morning; once the dot plot is out, the market will provide the answer.
Speaking of this, by the way, although the pancake from 103K to 100K is a low long area, I do not recommend chasing shorts to catch the tail end of the market. What you need to do is wait for the spike tonight, then buy the dip in the short term to make a profit, and then take the profit.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 116500
First resistance level: 105300
Support level reference:
Second support level: 104100
First support level: 103200
After breaking the upward trend line yesterday, it held above 104K with the support of the lower shadow, followed by a rebound. However, it should be noted that the low of this rebound is lower than before; to continue rising, it needs to break through more resistance.
Using yesterday's low point from 104K to 104.1K as short-term support, we can aim for a short-term rebound. If the price reaches the rebound zone of 105.3K with still very low trading volume, then we need to be cautious of a second drop, with short-term support looking at 103.2K.
If the price breaks through the first resistance of 105.3K and then retraces to 105.1K to 105.3K in a smaller timeframe and stabilizes, then we can continue to look for long positions. The second resistance is at 105.8K to 106K where there are multiple moving averages forming a resistance zone, so consider shorting here.
If the current price breaks below 104.5K again, the next step will be to further test the first support at 104.1K. If even the first support cannot hold, it will fall back to the range of 103.3K to 103.4K, and after filling the lower shadow here, there could be another short-term buying opportunity.
6.18 Master’s Band Strategy:
Long entry reference: buy in batches in the range of 102000-103200, target: 104100-105300
Short entry reference: not currently referenced
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than just making rash conclusions after a few market observations. This market is filled with showmen; today they show long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they 'catch the peaks and bottoms every time', but in reality, it's all hindsight. The bloggers worth paying attention to will have trading logic that is consistent, self-consistent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping on trends only after they move. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dream maker!
