Advisor discusses hot topics:
Last night the U.S. stock market was closed, and Bitcoin was still treading water. The recent events regarding Israel and Palestine have no real impact on the U.S. stock market, yet the crypto community is overly reactive. This proves that under unavoidable factors, Bitcoin has never exhibited the characteristics of a safe-haven asset.
It's now June to August, and it happens almost every year: fluctuations + confusion + fake moves clustered together. During this phase, bulls need to enter and exit quickly, grabbing a profit of two or three points and then running.
Because the recent rhythm has changed, going from retracing to 2 to 3 points and then rebounding to 6 to 8 points to stepping down to 2 to 1 point and then bouncing back to 5 to 6 points. In plain terms, the market is becoming increasingly tricky; if you don't play it a bit tricky, you might get tricked.
As for shorts, it seems they aren't in a much better position. Bitcoin is still hovering above 100K, and Ethereum hasn't collapsed either. In plain terms, nobody in the market wants to take real action, and there are no solid external news; everyone is just stalling.
But I have to share my opinion; during such times, once the news takes a breather. Whether it’s a de-escalation of conflicts or the Federal Reserve saying something about easing, it’s likely to create a fake rebound, first tricking you into getting on board, then stepping on you.
Why is it a fake rebound? Looking at the trend of the spot premium for Bitcoin, it's obvious that someone is trying to hold it up, buying for a long time but then stopping. Funds have dried up, and the sentiment has also dwindled. However, the futures market has become more optimistic day by day, which is quite strange.
Spot trading is solid chip trading, while futures are leveraged bubbles. This implies one thing: the next likely scenario is the futures controlling the market to create a fake breakout, and then... you know what I mean.
Currently, the liquidity map shows that there’s a lot of short liquidity piled up at 107K, and below 102K is also starting to pile up. According to the market behavior in recent weeks, today is likely to first clear one side; if it doesn’t take a significant movement, there will be a problem.
Currently, my personal bias is still bearish, but to be honest, I don't want to short because it's too easy to get caught. Moreover, I'm also quite worried about a sudden V-shaped reversal. So I'd rather wait for it to break below 102K, and then see a long spike reversal before making a decision.
In conclusion, most retail investors with over 100K don’t really play the spot market at all, and institutions are reluctant to take over because they want cheap chips, not high-level retail investors at six figures. It's just a show, but who are they performing for? For retail investors like you and me.
The outcome is nothing more than washing you out, and then the price crashes down. Institutions quietly buy up, and only then does the new round of real upward movement begin, with retail investors chasing back, once again breaking their bullish dreams for three years...!
Advisor looking at trends:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 105800
First resistance level: 105100
Support level reference:
Second support level: 104100
First support level: 103400
Bitcoin's current price is forming a triangle convergence pattern after falling. Until a clear direction is established at the end of the convergence, it should still be viewed as sideways and fluctuating. During yesterday's decline, the 104K line provided support. If it breaks below 104K again, a downward channel will open, and the prerequisite for a rebound is to stand above the 105K level.
When the price approaches the first resistance at 104.8–105K, don't rush to confirm a breakout; first, observe whether there is enough trading volume and stabilization; since the market has mostly been in sideways fluctuation recently, even if it stands above 105K, it often struggles to maintain an upward trend unless a significant bullish candle effectively breaks out; otherwise, it will still maintain a range-bound fluctuation approach.
Intraday, 104K can be viewed as a key support level; if this position is lost again, it may trigger short-term selling pressure; if it breaks below 104K, the space below can open up to 103.4K, and the original support level will also convert to a resistance level.
6.20 Advisor's segment pre-empt:
Long entry reference: buy in batches in the range of 103400-104100; target: 105100-105800
Short entry reference: not currently referenced
