On June 19, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced narrow fluctuations during the day, with a high of 105500 USD and a low of 103700 USD. The market was quiet, awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision at 2 AM tonight. It is expected that after the announcement, there will first be long and short liquidations, followed by a one-sided market. The high short strategy remains the main line, and those trapped can take the opportunity to unwind positions.
I. Analysis of the impact logic of the interest rate resolution
1. Expectations for long and short liquidations:
◦ Historical data shows that before major events (such as the Fed's resolution), the market often experiences "inducement to go long - inducement to go short" liquidation actions, sweeping away stop-loss orders from both sides;
◦ Exchange data shows that a large number of long stop-loss orders are clustered above 105000 USD, and short stop-loss orders exist below 103500 USD, with the liquidation range likely within this scope.
2. Conditions for triggering a one-sided market:
◦ If the Fed maintains interest rates and signals dovish, Bitcoin may break above 106000 USD and start an upward trend;
◦ If an interest rate hike is announced or a hawkish statement is made, the price may drop to 102000 USD, even testing the 100000 mark.
II. Operational suggestions: Short in the 105000-105500 range
• Entry range: 105000-105500 USD (relying on the intraday high resistance level)
• Short-term target: 104000 USD (testing intraday low support)
• Long-term target: 102000 USD (strong support area on the daily chart)
• Defensive stop-loss: strictly set above 106000 USD (if broken, abandon the short logic)
III. Strategy for unwinding trapped positions and risk control
1. Unwinding high-position longs:
◦ If trapped above 106000 USD, consider adding short positions in the 105000-105500 USD range, targeting 104000 USD, and after profiting, close the shorts while keeping long positions to wait for a rebound after the resolution;
◦ If the price breaks above 106000 USD, decisively cut losses on long positions, and cautiously try long again.
2. Unwinding low-position shorts:
◦ If trapped below 104000 USD, consider adding short positions in the 105000-105500 USD range, targeting 102000 USD, and after profiting, close part of the shorts to reduce holding costs.
3. General risk control principles:
◦ Regardless of long or short trapped positions, the added position should not exceed 50% of the original holding to avoid amplifying risk exposure;
◦ During the resolution announcement period (01:30-02:30), refrain from opening new positions, wait for clear direction before proceeding.
IV. Technical indicators and time window tips
1. Characteristics of the fluctuation range:
◦ The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart have narrowed to 2000 points (midline 104600 USD), the MACD indicator has a golden cross, but the red bars are extremely short, indicating a stalemate between long and short forces;
◦ The RSI indicator is fluctuating in the 45-55 range, with no clear directional signal.
2. Key time nodes:
◦ Tonight 23:00-24:00 (before the resolution) there may be preliminary fluctuations, consider lightly short positions;
◦ After the announcement at 2 AM, if the price breaks above 106000 USD or drops below 103500 USD within 30 minutes, the strategy needs to be adjusted immediately.
V. Core strategy tips
The Fed's resolution is the biggest variable this week, with operations focused on "quick in and out + flexible response":
• Before the resolution, position according to a high short strategy, do not chase highs or cut losses;
• After the resolution, adjust according to the actual direction; if a one-sided market occurs, you may add positions (long or short), but the position should not exceed 5% of total funds;
• Remember: "event-driven market fluctuations are intense," always use stop-losses and do not hold positions.
