During the collective surge of bottom-fishing in the market, always adhere to a bearish stance. The subsequent market significantly dropped to validate the judgment, accurately capturing a profit of 5,600 points. Currently, mainstream coins continue to fluctuate sideways while altcoins remain in decline. Combining technical analysis and market sentiment, high-short strategies remain the main line:
1. Bottom fishing traps and short logic recap
1. Key to profit through contrarian thinking:
◦ When market sentiment is euphoric, retail investors account for 75% of bottom-buying funds, while whale addresses have net sold 18,000 BTC during the same period, creating a typical 'main force offloading, retail picking up' pattern;
◦ Multiple bearish divergence signals have emerged on the technical front (price makes new highs, but MACD and RSI do not synchronize), laying the groundwork for a sharp decline.
2. Current market characteristics:
◦ Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating in the range of $105,000-$107,500, and the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing (with a bandwidth of only 2,500 points), indicating an impending directional choice;
◦ The altcoin index has dropped 8% in 24 hours, with over 70% of coins hitting 30-day lows, indicating a capital flight from altcoins to mainstream coins, exacerbating Bitcoin's volatility.
2. Operational advice: short in the range of $106,700-$107,300
• Entry range: $106,700-$107,300 (relying on the 4-hour middle band resistance)
• Short-term target: $105,000 (testing the lower support of the range)
• Long-term target: $100,000 integer level
• Defensive stop loss: strictly set above $107,800 (if broken, abandon the short logic)
3. Technical analysis and capital flow verification
1. Validity of resistance levels:
◦ $106,700-$107,300 is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous wave down, combined with the 100-hour moving average (at $107,000) forming a strong resistance zone;
◦ When the price rebounds to this range, the trading volume on the 1-hour chart shrinks by 40%, indicating that the bulls are unable to break through.
2. Capital flow warning:
◦ The buy volume of the exchange's BTC stablecoin pair (USDT/BTC) is 23% less than the sell volume, indicating a net capital outflow;
◦ In the derivatives market, the funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts has turned negative (-0.03%), and the short position volume has increased, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
4. Risk control and timing grasp
1. Position management: individual short positions should not exceed 4% of total funds. In a sideways market, where volatility is lower, positions can be slightly increased but not exceed 5%.
2. Take profit strategy:
◦ Close 60% of the position to lock in profits when it reaches $105,500;
◦ Remaining position stop loss adjusted to $106,500, betting on the long-term target. If the price rebounds and breaks $107,300, take profit and exit early.
3. Key time windows:
◦ US retail sales data will be released tonight at 20:30. If the data exceeds expectations, it may trigger a surge in the dollar, accelerating the decline in Bitcoin, and short positions can be increased beforehand.
5. Core strategy tips
The current market 'sideways consolidation hides bearish advantages', bottom fishing should wait for a clear stop-loss signal (such as a volume bullish candlestick breaking $107,800). Remember the contrarian thinking of 'others are greedy while I am fearful', maintain caution when most are bullish, and strictly implement high-short strategies until the trend reverses.
