I can hardly believe how thrilling tonight will be
The market volatility is undoubtedly huge
First of all, although the market has long regarded the June interest rate hold as a certainty, the key lies in the speech by Old Powell at 2:30. Whether it can provide insights on the interest rate cuts for the second half of the year is crucial.
Scenario 1: First, Iran makes a big surprise attack, causing the market to drop, then Old Powell's speech at 2:30 boosts the market back up
Scenario 2: Iran's surprise attack causes the market to drop, Old Powell's speech is ambiguous with no useful information, and the market continues to decline
Scenario 3: Iran's smoke screen with no real action, Old Powell's speech is ambiguous with no useful information, and the market fluctuates.