小麦日记本

CPI is clearly favorable, so why did it drop?

On the morning of June 13, the turmoil in the Middle East caused a rapid plunge of ETH below the support at 2660, directly falling to the defense at 2480.

Why choose this defense? Looking back at the past half month’s market, there have been three major touches at this position followed by rebounds of over two hundred points.

It is clear that this is a consensus; institutions and big players tend to buy at this position rather than sell.

Now, the left-side support is lightly positioned for a rebound, and the right side confirms an increase in positions.

Help! What should I do? This is my tuition fee for college this year.

This year, I've seen too many naive and ignorant college students blindly rushing into the market, recklessly betting with leverage of up to 100 times. It's important to understand the liquidity in the market; a 100 times bet can lead to liquidation in no time.

Help! What should I do? I've already lost several hundred U. Should I hold onto my position? I’ve seen this question far too often. Usually, those who reach this point have become overly emotional, attempting to gamble back their losses; human nature is that fragile.

It's not that I don’t want to help you and instead share this to let everyone laugh at you. The dangers of contracts don’t need much explanation; when you stare into the abyss, the abyss stares back at you. If you do not hold a sense of reverence for the market, it will certainly deliver you the most profound lesson in life.

In fact, even if you win this time, it will only lay the groundwork for a bigger bomb next time. When you have more capital to gamble with in the future, you will remember this successful gamble and attempt to replicate it.

🔴｜ETH's levels clearly resemble a trap
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Recently, ETH's support and resistance have been quite obvious, having moved back and forth twice. The current resistance level is so clear that it feels like the market makers want us to notice it, trying to bait us.

But knowing there’s a tiger on the mountain, we still head towards it. There’s no reason not to take a chance here, just set your stop-loss; at worst, we get caught in a trap.

These boundary levels truly have no reason not to be played. Were you brave enough to short at 2540? Were you bold enough to short at 2490? Now at 2700, are you telling me you’re scared? If you’re not getting cut, who is?

Set your stop-loss well; if it breaks through, we’ll exit, and once we’ve left, we won’t chase. Find the right direction to strike $ETH

#ETH

🔴｜BTC Macro Analysis
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Two old men are arguing, causing the entire cryptocurrency market value to shrink by 4%, a decrease of 150 billion dollars, with a liquidation amount of 980 million dollars in contracts.

The overall trend of Bitcoin's moving averages hasn't changed significantly, which is not enough to indicate that a bear market is coming. As long as the overall structure remains unchanged, adding to positions during a pullback is a good choice.

Watch today’s closing strength; if it continues to break down, stop loss and exit. The next support at 93400 is being monitored.
#特朗普马斯克分歧 $BTC

📍USD1, as a newcomer, wants to share the market share of USDT, BUSD, and USDC on the BNB Chain, and thus must collaborate with ecological giants.

Yesterday, Xiao Mai saw WLFI and 15815057687 jointly working with ecological giants like BNB Chain and PancakeSwap on USD1 liquidity activities, encouraging projects on the BNB Chain to use USD1 as a liquidity pair through rewards of up to $1 million and a 4-week trading event.

Additionally, this event is supported by Four.meme, Aster, and ListaDao, and USD1 is backed by the Trump family, clearly aiming to capture market share by leveraging Binance's traffic.

As one of the hosts, 15815057687 has also lived up to expectations since the launch of #BinanceAlpha and #BinanceContracts, with its market value quickly rising from $30 million to $400 million, deeply tied to USD1, and coupled with recent collaborations with ecological giants like WLFI; considering its current market value, there is still significant room for imagination.

📍Another example of success around us

In 2006, only 19 years old, really hitting the master with chaotic punches

This is a classmate's younger sister, with an initial investment of 50,000, partnered with friends. She essentially handed over the money to others, and her friend was fully responsible for the trading. First, in September of last year, they started buying BTC at over 60,000 and took profits at 100,000, thus earning the starting capital.

Then, around early April of this year, they started investing in meme coins and bottom-fishing the leading coins in various sectors, directly achieving financial freedom with this wave of increase.

The cryptocurrency world is truly a place full of miracles.
#比特币2025大会

🔴｜Current EVM Solution - Performance Beast Pharos Testnet Launched

As we all know, the single-thread execution model and 256-bit operation design of the current Ethereum EVM limit transaction throughput (Ethereum mainnet TPS is only 15-30), far below traditional payment systems (such as Visa's 1700+ TPS).

Although parallel EVM projects attempt to enhance throughput through parallel processing on multi-core processors, there is still room for optimization and insufficient ecological maturity.

Previously, a post discussed the extreme performance in EVM, mentioning a new EVM public chain - Pharos. You might think that Monad's 10,000 TPS performance is already impressive, but Pharos' throughput reaches 50,000 TPS, and during the public developer network launched on March 6 this year, it already achieved 20,000 TPS in testing.

Pharos adopts a "super-parallel" design, covering consensus, execution, storage, and heterogeneous hardware, achieving processing capacities of up to 50,000 TPS and 2 gGas/s through optimized schedulers and executors, which is five times that of Monad.

🔥 The fastest EVM-compatible Layer-1 Pharos testnet is live!

Testnet link🔗: testnet.pharosnetwork.xyz

Remember to enter the invitation code: 9Ix32XCz6ZOUhIfqeHQW

The launch of the testnet showcases its innovative Layer 1 solutions. This will accelerate the development of the on-chain RWA ecosystem, supporting the integration of TradFi and DeFi.

Moreover, Pharos focuses on high-quality institutional RWA assets, with end-to-end issuance and distribution processes, suitable for fixed income funds, allowing capital flow as simply as payments.

Additionally, Pharos supports privacy payments and decentralized AI through SPN, boasting powerful computing capabilities and employing zero-knowledge proof technology to ensure KYC and anti-money laundering compliance.

The testnet will support developers in easily migrating and deploying Ethereum applications, compatible with six programming languages. Both users and developers can participate in the testing to experience its extreme performance and innovative features.
Developers can get community support through Pharos's Discord channel and submit details to start testing. Users and investors can also follow the testnet launch, experience its extreme performance and innovative features, and witness a new era of capital flow together.

This testnet launch accelerates the integration of RWA and DeFi, providing efficient blockchain solutions for traditional finance. As stated on its official homepage: Empowering trustless innovation and unlocking new possibilities for Web3.
#BTC再创新高

🔴｜Is the direction of long and short uncertain? Don't rush, let's analyze the current market sentiment
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First, let's take a look at the performance of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization over the past 90 days.

It is clear that in the past 90 days among the top 20 mainstream coins by market cap, only TRX and SUI have outperformed BTC, while most others are undergoing mean reversion.

This indicates that the overall market is strengthening BTC's dominance, with a large amount of capital continuously flowing into BTC, while the altcoins do not have enough to share. Most of these altcoins are also rising along with BTC's increase, but we are still some distance away from an altcoin season.

Next, I will analyze the current market environment and main sentiments from four perspectives.

1️⃣ The contradiction between market sentiment and herd behavior
Currently, most people are waiting for shorting opportunities, with “nearly 70% of positions betting on a decline.”

This phenomenon is often a dangerous signal in financial markets because highly consistent bearish sentiment can be exploited by the main players to create a counter-trend.

When market participants generally expect a decline, retail investors and some institutions tend to pile up short positions, trying to profit from price corrections. However, this consistent expectation precisely provides the main players with “hunting” opportunities. The main players may induce a short squeeze by creating false breakouts, pushing Bitcoin above 110,000 and Ethereum testing 3,000, triggering stop losses and forced liquidations, thus driving up prices.

This scenario is particularly common in the crypto market, as high leverage and low liquidity make price fluctuations easier to manipulate.

The extreme bearish sentiment in the current market may stem from the fear of heights brought by high prices, as well as technical divergence signals (such as RSI divergence, MACD death cross, etc.). However, when market sentiment is overly one-sided, it often indicates the possibility of a reversal. Historically, similar extreme sentiments (such as during the bull market peaks of 2017 or 2021) are often accompanied by the main players' counter-operation, cleansing the market before initiating a new trend.

$ALPHA 🔴｜Can the airdrop obtained from ALPHA score brushing outperform the losses caused by the decline in coin prices?
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The most cost-effective brushing method is a balance of 1000U. Add 8200 in trading volume.
This amounts to a total of 2+13 points. 225 points in 15 days.

With a trading volume of 8200, the loss is approximately 8U if not squeezed.

In 15 days, that amounts to 120U. With 225 points, only 2 airdrops can be claimed. Recently, the basic value of an airdrop is around 80U,

Assuming a balance of 10000U, if distributed over a month, one more airdrop can be earned, which would yield 80U. Together, that’s a maximum of 240U, but this coin has also seen more declines than increases; you can do the math yourself to see clearly.

If we look at the K-line, we can see the overall trend of this coin, and it becomes very evident that the overall bullish trend is quite weak.

It is advisable to use a low-buy high-sell strategy for scoring, although this may be slower in frequency, it is also somewhat more stable. Holding a large amount makes it easy to trigger a drop with a single sell-off; no number of shorts can cover your losses.
#币安Alpha上新

🔴｜Is it the end of the bull market now? BTC Market Analysis
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Price changes are just results; at a deeper level, they reflect a collective re-evaluation of the global asset anchoring structure and the historic return of non-sovereign assets emerging from institutional cracks. Currently, it has been a year since BTC's last halving, and this cycle is showing a distinctly different trend compared to previous ones.

Unlike previous cycles where explosive increases followed halvings, BTC's current rise has been relatively modest, increasing only by 31%, while in the last cycle, the increase during the same period was as high as 436%. Meanwhile, metrics for long-term holders (such as the MVRV ratio) show a sharp decline in unrealized profits, indicating that the market is maturing and upward potential is being compressed.

Overall, these changes suggest that BTC may be entering a new era characterized not by parabolic peaks but rather by progressive growth driven more by institutional involvement.

📍So let's return to the chart: why has BTC been stuck at 94,000 for five days, unable to move up or down?

Looking back at the previous chart, we can see that the 94,000 position served as a support level in the earlier phase, where it previously tested this level multiple times before rising to 100,000. Could this position now become a new support-resistance flip, where the prior support becomes the current resistance?

Additionally, in recent days, there has been continuous inflow into ETFs, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing a net inflow of $3 billion in the past week! This atmosphere seems to have suddenly returned to last October.

If you are trading short-term, you must clearly identify where the current price stands. As the saying goes, the closer we get to the upper resistance boundary, the more we should short, and the closer we get to the lower support, the more we should long. If we break through, we should stop-loss and exit.

In the middle range, where it neither goes up nor down, we do not recommend taking positions.

So let's allow the situation to develop for a while, waiting for the right side to provide an answer, and we can long along a support level.

🔴｜4.15 BTC Morning Analysis
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Many people are still reeling from yesterday's OM bloody plunge, which fell 90% in just 90 minutes! The worst part is that it happened late at night, and many people had no time to react. However, it is worth noting that the massive drop of 85.56% in the native token OM of MANTRA has led to a 24-hour drop of 44.93% in the RWA sector.

Now back to the BTC market, after a week of slow recovery, it has climbed back to the 84,000 position, but the overall market trend still looks bleak. There is a considerable resistance above that is suppressing it, and the downtrend remains unchanged. So at this moment, we need to be cautious.

Those with long positions in profit may consider taking profits, while those without can consider shorting above 85,000. BTC has been suppressed by this resistance above 85,000 for three days now, and as the saying goes, if it can't rise, it's very likely to fall.

🔻 Data:
Moreover, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of 713 million USD last week, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT leading with a weekly net outflow of 342 million USD.

The average repair of BTC over the past six days is related to Trump's announcement to pause tariffs for 90 days, and the declines in ETH and XRP have also narrowed. Although Bitcoin's price has rebounded, CryptoQuant's bull market score index has dropped to 10, the lowest level since November 2022, and this index must break above 40 to indicate sustained bullish momentum.

BTC's current key resistance levels are between 84,000 USD and 96,000 USD. If bullish momentum weakens, Bitcoin's gains may be limited within this price range, similar to past bear market cycles. Therefore, the market still needs to remain vigilant, as the trend of the bull market index depends on whether investor confidence can be reignited.

In simple terms, for BTC to break the deadlock in the short term, it must break through the left-side resistance and surpass the high points. Otherwise, the strong downtrend will make the situation even more bleak.
#BTC走势分析
$BTC