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I believe the real bull market in the crypto market will not emerge until after September.
Due to macroeconomic pressures, summer liquidity shortages, and market adjustments at the end of the quarter, real opportunities will unfold when market participants return after the August holiday. Recent market performance shows that, apart from Bitcoin, the rise of most altcoins has been driven by short squeezes.
Traders are chasing short-term momentum based on previous rebound experiences, but this time there are no real 'long-term holders.' Many people have previously been 'burned' by the market, so most tokens that surged within a short period soon experienced equally sharp declines.
Ethereum unexpectedly rebounded, while sectors like AI and MEME, which have been heavily hit by the market, led this rebound.
In contrast, tokens with real utility, strong fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms performed more steadily, not only resisting declines during market downturns but also rebounding more quickly. For example, Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. Although SPX is a meme coin, its structure is completely different. From these phenomena, we can summarize a few key points:
1️⃣ The demand for Bitcoin is real and sustained
Traditional capital is gradually entering the Bitcoin market through regulated channels like ETFs. The nature of the capital supporting Bitcoin now is completely different from past cycles. Therefore, unless affected by macroeconomic events, the likelihood of Bitcoin crashing due to large-scale liquidations (caused by high leverage leading to chain liquidations) is low.
2️⃣ The differentiation of altcoins will become increasingly evident
In the future, funds will flow back into altcoins, but it will not be a comprehensive rise. Only those tokens with clear utility and real applications can attract capital inflows. This is why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana. Ethereum has regulatory clarity, increasing DeFi usage, a deflationary token structure, and staking demand, which create a strong positive feedback loop. Additionally, because Ethereum has underperformed expectations for a long time, there are many potential buyers on the market's margins.
3️⃣ Structural risks of venture capital-backed tokens
Token unlocks will continue to exert pressure on prices. If market liquidity is insufficient, the continued selling pressure from validators and early investors will limit the upside potential. Therefore, I believe tokens that are overvalued on CEX are not good investment choices, especially tokens in the Cosmos ecosystem, which face ongoing selling pressure due to the validator reward structure.
4️⃣ Structural advantages of meme coins
Meme coins do not have venture capital unlocks, adopt fair issuance, and are entirely driven by attention. This pure speculation mechanism was very effective in the early market cycle, just like the first bull market. But I believe this phase has ended. The token generation event of Pump.fun and the launch of Trump Coin marked the peak of the meme coin frenzy. Since then, the attention on meme coins has started to decline. Even during the rebound in April, Solana's performance was not as good as Ethereum's. If everyone is already holding Solana, when the meme coin frenzy fades, who will be the next buyer?
Some meme coins may still have performance opportunities, especially those that have gone viral outside of Crypto Twitter, such as those popularized by KOLs on TikTok or Instagram. These coins may still bring asymmetric wealth opportunities. However, the era of 'cute dog and cat coins' as investment hotspots has ended. Only those meme coins with strong stories and collective faith have real speculative value.
🔻 Opportunities in Web2/3 fairly issued projects
Interestingly, the fatigue and skepticism towards venture capital-backed tokens is opening doors for fairly issued Web2/3 projects, which may become the next wave of wealth creation opportunities. Keeta is a great example. But to seize these opportunities, you need to dive deep into the on-chain market. When information asymmetry exists, there are always hidden big opportunities. Once everyone knows, the opportunity is gone.
This is why I spend more time closely observing the on-chain market. The success of Keeta has ignited people's enthusiasm to find the 'next Keeta,' and funds have begun to chase similar fairly issued altcoin stories. Just like that guy who made ten-digit profits trading meme coins, attention has guided capital flow.
If the meme coin craze is over, what's next?
I think the answer is: the combination of AI and crypto.
—— Current status of AI projects
Just like during the DeFi boom, many early AI projects died off after the hype. But in the current bear market, truly valuable AI projects are quietly being built. We have already seen some of these projects emerge on-chain.
—— Capital flows into new narratives
As the profit margins of meme coins shrink, market attention will naturally shift to new narratives. AI, with its clear practical value, is very suitable to become the next hotspot.
—— Fairly issued AI projects
Many AI x crypto projects are fairly issued, continuing the narrative model of Keeta.
Therefore, during this calm period in the market, I am focused on researching and positioning in the AI x crypto space. There’s no need to rush to allocate everything, but if the market welcomes the next strong rise, I believe this field will present the greatest asymmetric opportunities.
Summary:
The crypto market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but a major bull market could arrive after September. Bitcoin demand is stable, quality altcoins will outperform the market, the meme coin frenzy will fade, and AI x crypto may be the next hotspot for wealth creation. Want to seize the opportunity? Pay more attention to on-chain dynamics and look for projects with real value and stories!
🔹 Original translation link: https://x.com/JoshuaDeuk/status/1934115504769417466?t=wEKuEA9LlgM18RPvZlC62g&s=19
