It’s that time of year again, the college entrance examination season. Every year at this time, the restless society seems to hit the pause button. Even Bitcoin, which usually charges through the crypto market, has recently found some stability, seemingly making way for the students and parents in and out of the examination halls. After all, this is one of the few exams in life that can be called 'fair,' and it deserves some respect.
Wei Dongyi has recently gone viral on Douyin, breaking 22 million followers in just four days. The power of a phenomenon-level IP is truly astonishing. Sometimes, the power of knowledge emerges without needing anyone to comment on it; reality will provide the answers. After watching the video, I also drifted off for a while. No matter how high your talent or how smart your mind, health must always come first. The comment 'the sea of learning is toothless' is actually a playful expression of concern; you can feel the goodwill of netizens even through the screen.
Looking back at the past week, Trump and Musk's 'plastic brotherhood' suddenly broke apart, causing an irrational pullback in the U.S. stock and crypto markets. Fortunately, through the mediation of various interest groups, the two have temporarily put their flags down. To be honest, Trump, a typical egoist, can turn on a dime, and if Musk really wants to create a 'third party,' it could very well stir up a global capital market storm. As Keynes said: 'The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.' We retail investors must also maintain some clarity.
James Wynn has lost over 100 million in chips; now his position has shrunk to a small $100,000 stake, clearly entering the 'retail investor zone.' Advising a gambler to come ashore is like advising a prostitute to reform; this applies to any market. A few days ago, I had a video chat with a market maker from HK, and he said something particularly heart-wrenching: 'a16z are all retail investors; what can a little retail investor achieve?' Ultimately, contracts can be profitable, but if you rush in without a strategy or plan, even if you have over 100 million, it’s still just giving away money.
The other night, an old retail investor in my WeChat group complained about feeling impulsive over the weekend and going ALL IN on a small AI + Meme coin. However, just two hours after diving in, the market maker hit him with a huge bearish candle, waking him up. He was screenshotting his stop-loss and sending voice messages cursing, his voice shaking, saying he’s been trading for six years and still believed in 'group friends’ hot tips.' It seems that retail investor behavior is hard to change at its core.
This reminds me of something from a few years ago during the bull market when a guy made 500,000 in a day and filled his social media with screenshots bragging. The next day, his account was wiped out. Later, he self-deprecatingly said, 'When you’re making a lot of money, nobody advises you; when you lose everything, the whole world teaches you how to behave.'
On the trading path, it’s not about making money slowly that’s scary; it’s having a fluctuating mindset. Those who can truly navigate bull and bear markets are those who have lived long and remain steady.
We have once again witnessed an A9 major investor's 'return to poverty.' Besides awe and caution, we must also learn to think. Trading has no standard answers; there are no perpetual victors in the K-line game. Recognizing oneself is the greatest source of winning probability. The market won’t wait for anyone, and it won't change because of your emotions. Follow me closely; this round of high points for reducing positions, we are once again one step ahead of the market. Time will prove the choice.
Right now, on-chain funds are actually stirring beneath the surface. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations fluctuate, USDT premiums have recently risen slightly, and stablecoin net inflows are becoming stagnant. Don’t be fooled by the surface-level BTC consolidation; whale funds are moving in and out in ways that are hard to decipher. Recently, the Ethereum ecosystem has been especially active, with significant increases in TVL on Layer 2s like Arbitrum and Blast. The capital rotation on Solana is also rapid, and the AI + Meme sector remains a favored hotbed for short-term speculative funds. New themes + low circulation + strong communities will become the standard configuration for explosive targets after the market adjustment.
This market is always a battlefield of emotions. If you ask me, when is a good buying point? My answer will always be: when most people are afraid to buy. If you ask, when is a good selling point? Then it’s: when everyone in your social circle is saying, 'This time it’s different.'
Soros has a poignant saying: 'The key to making money is not in predicting the future, but in responding to changes.' Friends, the market never sleeps, and we shouldn't be dreaming either. Keep up with the rhythm; collect when it’s time to collect, and let go when it’s time to let go. Only those who can be patient and survive are worthy of keeping up with every cycle.
BTC: If Bitcoin erases the deep V caused by the fallout between Musk and Trump, then the hourly and four-hour technical outlook still shows a trend of oscillating downward at a high point. In the short term, Bitcoin's bull pressure point is around 107,000; once broken, it will continue a high consolidation, with a bottom at the 100,000 round figure. The daily trend of Bitcoin does not show a complete unloading of the pullback trend, with the previous daily bottom expected around 97,000. For now, it’s best to wait and see; liquidity is stagnant, and there’s not much volatility. Big cycle bottom-fishing must wait until this round of decline is over.
ETH: The Ethereum structure is not as strong as before, and the exchange rate is under pressure, briefly following Bitcoin's trend. However, at a macro level, leading institutions have already begun to shift their positions to Ethereum. If this trend continues next week, we can basically confirm the next round of market trends where Ethereum takes the baton, and we should hold it closely.
The counterfeit market fluctuates back and forth, with a follow-up to the trends. Currently, the market is in the final stage of adjustment, waiting for the bottom to arrive after volatility expands.
Other issues can be discussed in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is at 62 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
