During the day, I was refreshing the market while going through news, and the more I looked, the more I felt like there were hidden dangers in the calm. On the surface, it seems peaceful, but the funds underneath have already started to stir.
This morning, as soon as I got off the high-speed train and picked up my phone, I saw that institutions have extended their Bitcoin accumulation plans directly to 2025, aiming to hold 417,000 BTC. This is not a small fund making random calls; this is serious money preparing for a long-term layout, showing that their confidence in the future crypto market has not wavered. Moreover, Tether made a big move today, transferring 3,729 BTC, about 4 billion USD. Brothers, this is not retail action; this is serious money making strategic reserves.
On one side, institutions are quietly increasing their positions in Bitcoin, while on the other side, the stablecoin war has started. Today I saw an interesting trend; former Vice President of the Bank of China Wang Yongli publicly warned that the expansion of USD stablecoins is too fast and that risks must be monitored. He even suggested Hong Kong to pilot offshore RMB stablecoins. This isn’t just a casual comment; it’s a signal. Why? Because the current surge in USD stablecoins through the compliance of USDC is too strong, and in the future, capital markets will definitely become more dollarized. If the RMB does not keep up, cross-border finance will be further strangled. Do you understand? In the future, stablecoins will be one of the main battlefields for great power competition, with funds, regulations, and strategies becoming deeper waters. We need to keep a close watch on this.
Back to the market, the funding for ETH has been really stable lately, with a continuous inflow of spot ETFs for 11 days, and over 78 million USD yesterday. No exaggeration, the ETH/BTC rotation window is indeed open, with big money clearly leaning towards ETH. If you don’t believe it, watch the order book; ETH's movement is relatively resilient. Moreover, Circle is preparing for an IPO aiming for a valuation of 7.2 billion, with stablecoins + ETH ecosystem being a solid main line.
Brothers, have you noticed that recently the rhythm in Solana is also quietly rising? Zircuit has launched an airdrop, Cooking.City just raised 7 million USD, and the institution SevenX is getting on board, which is a typical early positioning. In this hot Solana ecosystem, a slight wind can stir up short-term sentiment. I’m already preparing to put some positions in for rotation, engaging in short-term liquidity arbitrage.
Don't miss any details, the Tether gold stablecoin xAUt on the TON chain has also been launched, which is directly linked to gold and has strong anti-inflation properties. This new gameplay is likely to attract a wave of cross-market capital in the future, especially from funds in the Middle East and Southeast Asia that favor gold assets. Everyone should pay more attention to this.
To be honest, looking at today, funds are in structural rotation. Bitcoin is gathering strength, ETH is moving steadily, Solana ecosystem funds are warming up, and stablecoins are fully firing up. The external regulatory undercurrents are also deepening. This market seems calm on the surface, but in fact, there are opportunities everywhere; it all depends on your insight.
Uncle San is still not in a hurry to build a large position today, waiting for a dip to add to ETH, monitoring airdrops and new targets in the Solana ecosystem, holding onto Bitcoin's bottom position and not chasing highs. Short-term focus on sentiment, long-term on direction. Brothers, in this market, it's not about predictions, it's about rhythm.
Not much to say tonight, the market funds are becoming increasingly smart. Don't stubbornly adhere to your past logic; flexibly following the funds is the correct approach. There are no right or wrong in the market, the rhythm determines life and death; let's wait for the adjustment to end.
BTC: Bitcoin's hourly chart shows an oversold rebound, currently stepping back into the daily trend resistance point at 105,000. If the daily price stabilizes here, it will have to face high-level market choices again. In the short term, the trend appears to show insufficient bullish momentum, and there isn't much support seen for a new high for Bitcoin in the market. Technically, it shows wide fluctuations, with funds further diverting. The four-hour market tends to continue adjusting downwards; a reversal is still far off.
ETH: The structure of Ethereum is still good, with clear inflows of funds. Once the adjustment ends, it is highly likely to take over Bitcoin and rise.
The altcoin market is going back and forth, and there doesn't seem to be much improvement at the moment. The main speculative segments to keep an eye on for the long term are mainly Doge, Pepe, and Shib. I personally believe that the new generation of meme coins has little future. For secondary mainstream coins like BCH and LTC, watch for low points in ETH, as they can be linked together. Currently, the market is in the late stage of adjustment, waiting for the bottom to arrive after volatility expands.
Other issues can be discussed in the comments.
The fear and greed index is at 64 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage, stock up on spot assets!
