The Trump administration is pushing for a shift in U.S. crypto regulation; the SEC's 'securities violation' claims against Coinbase have entered the withdrawal process, and the Senate passed the (DeFi broker rule repeal) by a vote of 70 to 27. Core impact:
Institutional capital tsunami: Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have exceeded 22 million ETH in ETF holdings; if a BTC spot ETF is approved, incremental funds will flood in.
Bank compliance breakthrough: FDIC cancels pre-examination of banks' crypto services; MicroStrategy issues 1.5x volatility Bitcoin leveraged preferred shares, and a corporate-level allocation wave is coming.
Risk points: If the Democratic Party pushes to restrict military aid to Israel, SEC approvals may slow down.
Geopolitical nuclear bomb: The double-edged sword of Middle Eastern conflicts.
Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities trigger market turmoil:
Data chain reaction: BTC briefly plummeted to $102,640 (-3%), triggering $1 billion in long liquidations; gold ETFs bled $1.2 billion in a single day, and BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $180 million.
Sanction transmission: The U.S. will announce Iran's oil export sanction details tonight at 23:00. If cryptocurrency payments are restricted (reportedly Iran profits $1.5 billion annually), selling pressure will intensify.
Key threshold: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, BTC could break $90,000; if the U.S. and Iran reach a temporary compromise, a rebound to $108,000 is possible.
Whale game: MicroStrategy's pricing power.
Holding hegemony: MicroStrategy's total holding is 528,185 BTC (accounting for 2.3% of the circulating supply), with the latest average purchase price at $86,969 (floating profit of 36%).
On-chain signals: Addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have risen to 40.75 million (a new high since March), but the perpetual contract funding rate at 0.07% warns of high leverage risks.
Macro scissors gap: The lifeline of interest rates and U.S. stocks.
Interest rate sensitive period: If June CPI exceeds expectations at 3.1%, rate hike expectations will rise and suppress BTC; an early rate cut increases the probability of breaking previous highs.
U.S. stock correlation: If the Nasdaq falls below 18,000 points, it will trigger a migration of funds to BTC, but beware of a crash in 'Bitcoin concept stocks' like MicroStrategy.
Operational anchor point: $101,000 serves as a technical support level; if breached, stop loss; stabilizing above $105,000 allows for gradual accumulation.
Survival rules: Compliance and anti-fragile allocation.
Evacuate from wild exchanges: New regulations from Singapore's MAS have caused 90% of exchanges to face withdrawal; immediately check platform license status and transfer assets to compliant platforms like Binance.
Stablecoin hedging: Allocate USDC (highest reserve transparency) and USDT (strongest liquidity), while avoiding political asset tokens like Trump Coin (down 23% this week).
Leverage death line: Stay away from contracts with funding rates >0.05% to prevent a bull-bear stampede.
Regulatory easing is a clear signal, but geopolitical black swans are the ultimate weapon for price manipulation. Remember: Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria — the current market is at the tearing point between 'skepticism' and 'optimism.' If Iran's sanction details involve restrictions on crypto channels, the $100,000 support level will become a battleground between bulls and bears.
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